290
corresponds to approximately half an ENSO cycle (e.g. Wright, 1985).
Thus, the decadal mode is strongly damped and the internal" noise" in the
coupled ocean-atmosphere system will limit its predictability considerably.
Acknowledgement
We would like to thank Drs. D. Cayan, C. Frankignoul, P. Miiller, W.
White, and E. Zorita for many fruitful discussions. We thank Drs. T.
Stockdale, J. Wolff, and G. Burgers for helping in the development of the
coupled general circulation model. We thank the Theoretical Applications
Division of the Los Alamos National Laboratory for making most of the
computer time available for the CGCM run, Dr. D. Poling for tending the
run and managing the extensive output files, and Dr. C. Keller for facilitating the cooperation on the CGCM project. In addition, we thank M. Junge,
J. Ritchie, T. Tubbs, and M. Tyree for providing computational assistance.
This work was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under grant NSFATM 9314495, the U.S. Department of Energy's CHAMP
program under grant DE-FG03-91ER61215 (T.P.B.), NOAA via the Lamont/SIO Consortium program (M. M.), the German Climate Computer
Centre (DKRZ), the European Community under grants EV5V-CT92-0121
and EV5V-CT94-0538, and the Bundesminister fur Forschung und Technologie under grant 07VKV01/1 (M.L.).
References
ANDERSON, D.L.T. AND A.E. GILL, 1975: Spin-up of a stratified ocean with application to
upwelling. Deep-Sea Research, 22, 583-596.
ANDERSON, D.L.T., K. BRYAN, A.E. GILL, AND R.C. PACANOWSKI, 1979: The transient
response of the North Atlantic - some model studies. J. Geophys. Res., 84, 4795-4815.
BARNETT, T. P., 1983: Interaction of the Monsoon and Pacific trade wind system at interannual time scales. Part I: The equatorial zone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 756-773.
BARNETT, T. P. AND R. PREISENDORFER, 1987: Origins and levels of monthly forecast skill
for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1825-1850.
BJERKNES, J., 1964: Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction. Adv. in Geophys., 10, 1-82.
BRANKOVIC, C., T.N. PALMER, AND L. FERRANTI, 1994: Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations. J. Climate, 7, 217-237.
DELWORTH, T., S. MANABE, AND R.J. STOUFFER, 1993: Interdecadal variations of the
thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 6, 19932011.
corresponds to approximately half an ENSO cycle (e.g. Wright, 1985).
Thus, the decadal mode is strongly damped and the internal" noise" in the
coupled ocean-atmosphere system will limit its predictability considerably.
Acknowledgement
We would like to thank Drs. D. Cayan, C. Frankignoul, P. Miiller, W.
White, and E. Zorita for many fruitful discussions. We thank Drs. T.
Stockdale, J. Wolff, and G. Burgers for helping in the development of the
coupled general circulation model. We thank the Theoretical Applications
Division of the Los Alamos National Laboratory for making most of the
computer time available for the CGCM run, Dr. D. Poling for tending the
run and managing the extensive output files, and Dr. C. Keller for facilitating the cooperation on the CGCM project. In addition, we thank M. Junge,
J. Ritchie, T. Tubbs, and M. Tyree for providing computational assistance.
This work was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under grant NSFATM 9314495, the U.S. Department of Energy's CHAMP
program under grant DE-FG03-91ER61215 (T.P.B.), NOAA via the Lamont/SIO Consortium program (M. M.), the German Climate Computer
Centre (DKRZ), the European Community under grants EV5V-CT92-0121
and EV5V-CT94-0538, and the Bundesminister fur Forschung und Technologie under grant 07VKV01/1 (M.L.).
References
ANDERSON, D.L.T. AND A.E. GILL, 1975: Spin-up of a stratified ocean with application to
upwelling. Deep-Sea Research, 22, 583-596.
ANDERSON, D.L.T., K. BRYAN, A.E. GILL, AND R.C. PACANOWSKI, 1979: The transient
response of the North Atlantic - some model studies. J. Geophys. Res., 84, 4795-4815.
BARNETT, T. P., 1983: Interaction of the Monsoon and Pacific trade wind system at interannual time scales. Part I: The equatorial zone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 756-773.
BARNETT, T. P. AND R. PREISENDORFER, 1987: Origins and levels of monthly forecast skill
for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1825-1850.
BJERKNES, J., 1964: Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction. Adv. in Geophys., 10, 1-82.
BRANKOVIC, C., T.N. PALMER, AND L. FERRANTI, 1994: Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations. J. Climate, 7, 217-237.
DELWORTH, T., S. MANABE, AND R.J. STOUFFER, 1993: Interdecadal variations of the
thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 6, 19932011.