Dechmi et al. 2012; Koch et al. 2013). Swank and Crossley (1988) studied hydrological responses of deforestation and forestation from an early age using comparative tests method. Dixon and Earls (2012) examined the effects of land use change
on a stream flow with a hydrological model. Hao et al. (2008) reports the variations
of surface runoff under climate change and human activities in the Tarim River
Basin by trend analysis of meteorological, socioeconomic and hydrological data.
Among them, hydrological simulation is the most widely used method and modelling can be looked upon as an objective and repeatable method with which to
interpolate and extrapolate knowledge in time and space between observations
(Str€ omqvist et al. 2012). Also, the modelled data can be widely used by water
authorities where measured data are not available for expert judgments.
This study, by applying a rigorously calibrated and validated process-based,
integrated semi-distributed hydrology model over the KRB aims to identify the
variations of stream flow at the outlet of the basin and to estimate the effects of
climate change and land use transition on stream flow changes. The ultimate goal of
this study is to provide important information for understanding water discharge
variation, and guide water resource managers in environmental change decisions in
the KRB.
2.2 Methodology
2.2.1 Study Area
The KRB is in the central part of the island of Honshu, Japan. The length of the river
is about 31 km, flowing into Katsura River. The area of the basin is 210 km
2 ,
ranging in elevation from 25 to 882 m, with average slope angles of about 25.7
.
There is no weather station in the basin and the nearest station is Kyoto station
(shown in Fig. 2.1). The annual precipitation from 1978 to 2008 at the Kyoto station
is 1,491 mm and 84.3 % of precipitation is concentrated from March to October.
The daily temperature ranges from À3.2 to 32.8
C and annual mean temperature
from 1978 to 2008 is about 16
C.
2 Modeling the Effects of Land Use Change and Climate Change on Stream Flow. . .
19
on a stream flow with a hydrological model. Hao et al. (2008) reports the variations
of surface runoff under climate change and human activities in the Tarim River
Basin by trend analysis of meteorological, socioeconomic and hydrological data.
Among them, hydrological simulation is the most widely used method and modelling can be looked upon as an objective and repeatable method with which to
interpolate and extrapolate knowledge in time and space between observations
(Str€ omqvist et al. 2012). Also, the modelled data can be widely used by water
authorities where measured data are not available for expert judgments.
This study, by applying a rigorously calibrated and validated process-based,
integrated semi-distributed hydrology model over the KRB aims to identify the
variations of stream flow at the outlet of the basin and to estimate the effects of
climate change and land use transition on stream flow changes. The ultimate goal of
this study is to provide important information for understanding water discharge
variation, and guide water resource managers in environmental change decisions in
the KRB.
2.2 Methodology
2.2.1 Study Area
The KRB is in the central part of the island of Honshu, Japan. The length of the river
is about 31 km, flowing into Katsura River. The area of the basin is 210 km
2 ,
ranging in elevation from 25 to 882 m, with average slope angles of about 25.7
.
There is no weather station in the basin and the nearest station is Kyoto station
(shown in Fig. 2.1). The annual precipitation from 1978 to 2008 at the Kyoto station
is 1,491 mm and 84.3 % of precipitation is concentrated from March to October.
The daily temperature ranges from À3.2 to 32.8
C and annual mean temperature
from 1978 to 2008 is about 16
C.
2 Modeling the Effects of Land Use Change and Climate Change on Stream Flow. . .
19