show that the conversion of forest, glass and agriculture (FGA) into urban area
would induce high peak flows, a reduction in annual evaporation and an increase in
annual surface runoff.
Keywords Land use change • Climate change • Hydrologic modeling • HYPE •
GIS • Kamo River basin
2.1 Introduction
In the last decades, the relentless usage of fossil fuel, growth of population,
migration to urban areas and consequent global climate change, land use transition
not only induce hydrological cycle variation and increase the risk of water-related
disasters also bring challenges to the current water management and planning
efforts. Water authorities in many places have paid special attention to water
management in order to mitigate the disaster risk. Understanding hydrological
processes, especially in the context of climate change and land use change is
necessary for water resources sustainable management.
A number of studies have been conducted on the impact of climate and land
cover variations on water resources balance at catchments (Cuo et al. 2013;
Cornelissen et al. 2013; O ¨ ztu ¨rk et al. 2013; Arheimer et al. 2012; Chu et al. 2012;
Zhang et al. 2012; Delpla et al. 2009). Cuo et al. (2013) found that the upper Yellow
River Basin hydrological regimes had undergone changes over the past decades as
reflected by a decrease in wet and warm season stream flow, and annual stream flow
due to climate change and human activity. O ¨ ztu ¨rk et al. (2013) showed the water
budget was most sensitive to variations in precipitation and conversion between
forest and agricultural lands but was less sensitive to the type of forest stands in the
Bartin spring watershed, Turkey. However, hydrological responses to climate and
land-use changes are different from place to place. It is necessary to conduct a study
of hydrological variation under climate and land-use changes on the regions with
few previous studies to provide valuable information for water management.
The basin of interest in this study, Kamo River basin (KRB), is the political and
socioeconomic center of Japan in history and also a famous tourist attraction with
about 1.5 million residents nowadays. The riverbank of Kamo River is popular with
tourists and residents for many activities such as sightseeing during Sakura blooms
(cherry blossoms), fishing and walking. These activities are sensitive to stream flow
changes. To date, there has been limited research on discharge variation in this
basin. Luo et al. (2014a) took a palaeoflood simulation in KRB and found that lower
discharge and earlier peak discharge time were exhibited under historical land use.
However, to what degree water discharge has been altered under climate and land
use changes certainly merits further investigation.
Rainfall-runoff dynamics are a complex process affected by various factors:
rainfall, temperature, vegetation etc. Many methods have been used to quantify
hydrological variations to all kinds of driving factors in river basins (Swank and
Crossley 1988; Singh and Gosain 2011; Beskow et al. 2012; Dixon and Earls 2012;
18
M. Hu et al.
would induce high peak flows, a reduction in annual evaporation and an increase in
annual surface runoff.
Keywords Land use change • Climate change • Hydrologic modeling • HYPE •
GIS • Kamo River basin
2.1 Introduction
In the last decades, the relentless usage of fossil fuel, growth of population,
migration to urban areas and consequent global climate change, land use transition
not only induce hydrological cycle variation and increase the risk of water-related
disasters also bring challenges to the current water management and planning
efforts. Water authorities in many places have paid special attention to water
management in order to mitigate the disaster risk. Understanding hydrological
processes, especially in the context of climate change and land use change is
necessary for water resources sustainable management.
A number of studies have been conducted on the impact of climate and land
cover variations on water resources balance at catchments (Cuo et al. 2013;
Cornelissen et al. 2013; O ¨ ztu ¨rk et al. 2013; Arheimer et al. 2012; Chu et al. 2012;
Zhang et al. 2012; Delpla et al. 2009). Cuo et al. (2013) found that the upper Yellow
River Basin hydrological regimes had undergone changes over the past decades as
reflected by a decrease in wet and warm season stream flow, and annual stream flow
due to climate change and human activity. O ¨ ztu ¨rk et al. (2013) showed the water
budget was most sensitive to variations in precipitation and conversion between
forest and agricultural lands but was less sensitive to the type of forest stands in the
Bartin spring watershed, Turkey. However, hydrological responses to climate and
land-use changes are different from place to place. It is necessary to conduct a study
of hydrological variation under climate and land-use changes on the regions with
few previous studies to provide valuable information for water management.
The basin of interest in this study, Kamo River basin (KRB), is the political and
socioeconomic center of Japan in history and also a famous tourist attraction with
about 1.5 million residents nowadays. The riverbank of Kamo River is popular with
tourists and residents for many activities such as sightseeing during Sakura blooms
(cherry blossoms), fishing and walking. These activities are sensitive to stream flow
changes. To date, there has been limited research on discharge variation in this
basin. Luo et al. (2014a) took a palaeoflood simulation in KRB and found that lower
discharge and earlier peak discharge time were exhibited under historical land use.
However, to what degree water discharge has been altered under climate and land
use changes certainly merits further investigation.
Rainfall-runoff dynamics are a complex process affected by various factors:
rainfall, temperature, vegetation etc. Many methods have been used to quantify
hydrological variations to all kinds of driving factors in river basins (Swank and
Crossley 1988; Singh and Gosain 2011; Beskow et al. 2012; Dixon and Earls 2012;
18
M. Hu et al.