Chapter 2
Modeling the Effects of Land Use Change
and Climate Change on Stream Flow Using
GIS and a Hydrological Model
Maochuan Hu, Bin He, Pingping Luo, Kaoru Takara, and Weili Duan
Abstract This paper reports our research effort aiming to investigate the applicability of integrating a hydrological model and the Hydrological Predictions for the
Environment (HYPE) model with a geographic information system (GIS) to examine the effect of land use change and climate change on stream-flows with the Kamo
River basin (KRB) located in the central Honshu island, Japan as a case study. The
goal of this study was to provide important information for understanding water
discharge variations as a basis to guide water resource managers in environmental
change decisions in this river basin. This goal was accomplished by two steps
(i) comparing HYPE-generated hydrographs for various meteorological data from
history to present at current land use (S1 and S2); and (ii) comparing HYPEgenerated hydrographs for historical and current land use scenarios at current
climate (S3 and S4). The calibration and validation results suggest that HYPE
performs well in the case study site for daily simulations. The results of S1–S2
indicate that with the impact of climate change, the trend of annual and seasonal
stream flows at the Kamo River Basin outlet would decrease. However, there is no
evidence to indicate that the flood risk would be decreasing. The results of S3–S4
M. Hu (*)
Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto
University, Kyoto daigaku-Kastura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto 615-8530, Japan
e-mail: hu-maochuan@163.com
B. He • W. Duan
CAS Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Nanjing, China
e-mail: hebin@niglas.ac.cn; wlduan@nislas.ac.cn
P. Luo (*)
Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability (UNU-IAS), United Nations University,
Shibuya, Tokyo, Japan
Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan
e-mail: luoping198121@gmail.com
K. Takara
Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan
e-mail: kaoru.takara@gmail.com
© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015
J. Li, X. Yang (eds.), Monitoring and Modeling of Global Changes:
A Geomatics Perspective, Springer Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry,
DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-9813-6_2
17
Modeling the Effects of Land Use Change
and Climate Change on Stream Flow Using
GIS and a Hydrological Model
Maochuan Hu, Bin He, Pingping Luo, Kaoru Takara, and Weili Duan
Abstract This paper reports our research effort aiming to investigate the applicability of integrating a hydrological model and the Hydrological Predictions for the
Environment (HYPE) model with a geographic information system (GIS) to examine the effect of land use change and climate change on stream-flows with the Kamo
River basin (KRB) located in the central Honshu island, Japan as a case study. The
goal of this study was to provide important information for understanding water
discharge variations as a basis to guide water resource managers in environmental
change decisions in this river basin. This goal was accomplished by two steps
(i) comparing HYPE-generated hydrographs for various meteorological data from
history to present at current land use (S1 and S2); and (ii) comparing HYPEgenerated hydrographs for historical and current land use scenarios at current
climate (S3 and S4). The calibration and validation results suggest that HYPE
performs well in the case study site for daily simulations. The results of S1–S2
indicate that with the impact of climate change, the trend of annual and seasonal
stream flows at the Kamo River Basin outlet would decrease. However, there is no
evidence to indicate that the flood risk would be decreasing. The results of S3–S4
M. Hu (*)
Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto
University, Kyoto daigaku-Kastura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto 615-8530, Japan
e-mail: hu-maochuan@163.com
B. He • W. Duan
CAS Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Nanjing, China
e-mail: hebin@niglas.ac.cn; wlduan@nislas.ac.cn
P. Luo (*)
Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability (UNU-IAS), United Nations University,
Shibuya, Tokyo, Japan
Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan
e-mail: luoping198121@gmail.com
K. Takara
Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan
e-mail: kaoru.takara@gmail.com
© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015
J. Li, X. Yang (eds.), Monitoring and Modeling of Global Changes:
A Geomatics Perspective, Springer Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry,
DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-9813-6_2
17