18.3. Prelimin ary Insights
401
FIGURE 18.5. Adding environmental impacts.
implementing Best Practice). This in tum results in an increase in deaths,
which cause s a decrease in Wild Shrimp population, finally decreasing
catching. Another loop from Health of Environment affects harvesting.
Poor quality of coastal waters will increase the incidence of disease in
ponds and decrease the available seedstock. Since many aquaculture businesses rely upon this wild population to stock their ponds, the pressure will
be on industry to use hatcheries, and costs will rise. Currently the model
does not incorporate any feedback from the wild fishe ry's by-catch, though
it is a possible extension of the model.
18.3. Preliminary Insights
18.3.1. Unbounded Aquaculture
A "base case" scenario show s just one poss ible behavior of the shrimp system assuming no major changes in policies or decision functions (Figure
18.6). It runs for a total of 50 years. The base case assumes that population
and per capita consumption will continue to grow in a pattern consistent