300
Y. Olsen et al.
10.3 Main Driving Factors of Future Development
of Mariculture
Despite their many uncertainties, predictions on the future demands and production
of mariculture are of strategic importance, because they stimulate thinking on the
social, economic, and technological factors that may affect the realization of those
predictions. Such evaluations, often termed as foresight studies, may be more
important than the predictions themselves. The identification of the main driving
factors for the development in mariculture and the consideration of how the aquaculture and fishery industries and the supporting science should prepare to meet the
future challenges are, therefore, of crucial importance.
In a foresight study carried out by a multidisciplinary group at the Norwegian
University of Science and Technology (see methods in Box 10.1), the optional drivBox 10.1 Aquaculture Foresight Study, brief explanation of methods
The objective of the foresight study within aquaculture technology at the
Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) was to establish a
basis for future long-term research and education strategies of the university
within the sector of aquaculture, including the complete value chain from
fisheries to market (“Aquaculture from sea to table”).
Key individuals connected with the seafood industry, researchers from
NTNU and SINTEF, resource management officials and prominent international
researchers and experts within aquaculture were invited to contribute through
the writing of more than thirty short feature articles on the future of aquaculture.
Most of the feature article writers also knew fisheries and aquaculture intimately,
but a number of typical all-rounders were also invited. The authors were
particularly asked to bring up their main future concerns for the industry in a
personal paper without references.
The response from the professions was surprisingly positive. These feature
articles formed the starting point for a seminar where key researchers and
representatives from the research council, resource management and the
industry contributed further to clarifying the challenges and possibilities in
the years to come. A project group of six people and a steering council from
key communities within NTNU further refined the material.
A conclusion from the analysis of the incoming material was that the main
driving factors for the development of aquaculture and the seafood industry
seem tied to three main clusters of “external driving factors”. These were: a)
The availability of resources, e.g., water, feed, energy, and human resources
b) human attitudes tied to ethics, the environment and health, and c) our
ability to develop knowledge and innovate.
The model generated (Fig. B1) was influenced by an environmental feedback model known as the DPSIR model (Turner et al 1998), but more
important was the inspiration from the actual synthesizing of the empirical
Y. Olsen et al.
10.3 Main Driving Factors of Future Development
of Mariculture
Despite their many uncertainties, predictions on the future demands and production
of mariculture are of strategic importance, because they stimulate thinking on the
social, economic, and technological factors that may affect the realization of those
predictions. Such evaluations, often termed as foresight studies, may be more
important than the predictions themselves. The identification of the main driving
factors for the development in mariculture and the consideration of how the aquaculture and fishery industries and the supporting science should prepare to meet the
future challenges are, therefore, of crucial importance.
In a foresight study carried out by a multidisciplinary group at the Norwegian
University of Science and Technology (see methods in Box 10.1), the optional drivBox 10.1 Aquaculture Foresight Study, brief explanation of methods
The objective of the foresight study within aquaculture technology at the
Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) was to establish a
basis for future long-term research and education strategies of the university
within the sector of aquaculture, including the complete value chain from
fisheries to market (“Aquaculture from sea to table”).
Key individuals connected with the seafood industry, researchers from
NTNU and SINTEF, resource management officials and prominent international
researchers and experts within aquaculture were invited to contribute through
the writing of more than thirty short feature articles on the future of aquaculture.
Most of the feature article writers also knew fisheries and aquaculture intimately,
but a number of typical all-rounders were also invited. The authors were
particularly asked to bring up their main future concerns for the industry in a
personal paper without references.
The response from the professions was surprisingly positive. These feature
articles formed the starting point for a seminar where key researchers and
representatives from the research council, resource management and the
industry contributed further to clarifying the challenges and possibilities in
the years to come. A project group of six people and a steering council from
key communities within NTNU further refined the material.
A conclusion from the analysis of the incoming material was that the main
driving factors for the development of aquaculture and the seafood industry
seem tied to three main clusters of “external driving factors”. These were: a)
The availability of resources, e.g., water, feed, energy, and human resources
b) human attitudes tied to ethics, the environment and health, and c) our
ability to develop knowledge and innovate.
The model generated (Fig. B1) was influenced by an environmental feedback model known as the DPSIR model (Turner et al 1998), but more
important was the inspiration from the actual synthesizing of the empirical