temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.
Brown, B. E., 1987. Worldwide death of corals – natural cyclical
events or man-made pollution? Marine Pollution Bulletin, 18,
9–13.
Brown, B. E., 1997. Coral bleaching: causes and consequences.
Coral Reefs, 16, S129–S138.
Brown, B. E., and Dunne, R. P., 2008. Solar radiation modulates
bleaching and damage protection in a shallow water coral.
Marine Ecology Progress Series, 362, 99–107.
Bruno, J. F., Selig, E. R., Casey, K. S., Page, C. A., Willis, B. L.,
Harvell, C. D., Sweatman, H., and Melendy, A. M., 2007. Thermal stress and coral cover as drivers of coral disease outbreaks.
PLoS Biology, 5, e124, doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0050124.
Buddemeier, R. W., Kleypas, J. A., and Aronson, R. B., 2004. Coral
Reefs and Global Climate Change. Arlington, VA: Pew Center
on Global Climate Change.
Canadell, J. G., La Quere, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B.,
Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P.,
Houghton, R. A., and Marland, G., 2007. Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon
intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,
104, 18866–18870.
Cao, L., and Caldeira, K., 2008. Atmospheric CO 2 stabilization and
ocean acidification. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L19609,
doi:10.1029/2008GL035072.
Carpenter, K. E., Abrar, M., Aeby, G., Aronson, R. B., Banks, S.,
Bruckner, A., Chiriboga, A., Cortes, J., Delbeek, J. C.,
DeVantier, L., Edgar, G. J., Edwards, A. J., Fenner, D., Guzman,
H. M., Hoeksema, B. W., Hodgson, G., Johan, O., Licuanan,
W. Y., Livingstone, S. R., Lovell, E. R., Moore, J. A., Obura,
D. O., Ochavillo, D., Polidoro, B. A., Precht, W. F., Quibilan,
M. C., Reboton, C., Richards, Z. T., Rogers, A. D., Sanciangco,
J., Sheppard, A., Sheppard, C., Smith, J., Stuart, S., Turak, E.,
Veron, J. E. N., Wallace, C., Weil, E., and Wood, E., 2008.
One-third of reef-building corals face elevated extinction risk
from climate change and local impacts. Science, 321, 560–563.
Church, J. A., and White, N. J., 2006. A 20th century acceleration in
global sea-level rise. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L01602,
doi:10.1029/2005GL024826.
Coles, S. L., and Brown, E. K., 2007. Twenty-five years of change
in coral coverage on a hurricane impacted reef in Hawaii: the
importance of recruitment. Coral Reefs, 26, 705–717.
Coles, S. L., Jokiel, P. L., and Lewis, C. R., 1976. Thermal tolerance
in tropical versus subtropical Pacific reef corals. Pacific Science,
30, 159–166.
Crabbe, M. J. C., Martinez, E., Garcia, C., Chub, J., Castro, L., and
Guy, J., 2008. Growth modelling indicates hurricanes and severe
storms are linked to low coral recruitment in the Caribbean.
Marine Environmental Research, 65, 364–368.
De’ath, G., Lough, J. M., and Fabricius K. E., 2009. Declining coral
calcification on the Great Barrier Reef. Science, 323, 116–119.
Diaz-Pulido, G., McCook, L. J., Dove, S., Berkelmans, R., Roff, G.,
Kline, D. I., Weeks, S., Evans, R. D., Williamson, D. H., and
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., 2009. Doom and boom on a resilient reef:
climate change, algal overgrowth and coral recovery. PLoS
ONE, 44(4), e5239, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005239.
Dollar, S. J., 1982. Storm stress and coral community structure in
Hawaii. Coral Reefs, 1, 71–81.
Done, T. J., 1999. Coral community adaptability to environmental
change at the scales of regions, reefs and reef zones. American
Zoologist, 39, 66–79.
Done, T. J., and Jones, R. N., 2006. Tropical coastal ecosystems and
climate change prediction: global and local risks. In Phinney,
J. T., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Kleypas, J., Skirving, W., and
Strong, A. (eds.), Coral Reefs and Climate Change. Science
and Management, Coastal and Estuarine Studies. Washington,
DC: American Geophysical Union, Vol. 61, pp. 5–31.
Done, T., Turak, E., Wakeford, M., DeVantier, L., McDonald, A.,
and Fisk, D., 2007. Decadal changes in turbid-water coral communities at Pandora Reef: loss of resilience or too soon to tell?
Coral Reefs, 26, 789–805.
Doney, S. C., Fabry, V. J., Feely, R. A., and Kleypas, J. A., 2009.
Ocean acidification: the other CO 2 problem. Annual Review of
Marine Science, 1, 169–192.
Donner, S. D., Heron, S. F., and Skirving, W. J., 2009. Future scenarios; a review of modelling efforts to predict the future of coral
reefs in an era of climate change. In van Oppen, M. J. H., and
Lough, J. M. (eds.), Coral Bleaching. Patterns, Processes,
Causes and Consequences. Berlin: Springer, pp. 159–173.
Donner, S. D., and Potere, D., 2007. The inequity of the global
threat to coral reefs. Bioscience, 57, 214–215.
Donner, S. D., Skirving, W. J., Little, C. M., Oppenheimer, M., and
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., 2005. Global assessment of coral
bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change.
Global Change Biology, 11, 2251–2265.
Downs, C. A., Woodley, C. M., Richmond, R. H., Lanning, L. L.,
and Owen, R., 2005. Shifting the paradigm of coral-reef ‘health’
assessment. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 51, 486–494.
Eakin, C. M., Lough, J. M., and Heron, S. F., 2009. Climate variability and change: monitoring data and evidence for increased coral
bleaching stress. In van Oppen, M. J. H., and Lough, J. M. (eds.),
Coral Bleaching. Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences. Berlin: Springer, pp. 41–67.
Edmunds, P. J., 2004. Juvenile coral population dynamics track rising seawater temperature on a Caribbean reef. Marine Ecology
Progress Series, 269, 111–119.
Edmunds, P. J., 2007. Evidence for a decadal-scale decline in the
growth rates of juvenile scleractinian corals. Marine Ecology
Progress Series, 341, 1–13.
Elvidge, C. D., Dietz, J. B., Berkelmans, R., Andrefouet, S.,
Skirving, W., Strong, A. E., and Tuttle, B. T., 2004. Satellite
observation of Keppel Islands (Great Barrier Reef) 2002 coral
bleaching using IKONOS data. Coral Reefs, 23, 123–132.
Emanuel, K., 2003. Tropical cyclones Annual Review of Earth and
Planetary Sciences, 31, 75–104.
Fabricius, K. E., 2005. Effects of terrestrial runoff on the ecology of
corals and coral reefs: review and synthesis. Marine Pollution
Bulletin, 50, 125–146.
Fabricius, K. E., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Johnson, J., McCook, L., and
Lough, J., 2007. The vulnerability of coral reef ecosystems of
the Great Barrier Reef to climate change. In Johnson, J., and
Marshall, P. (eds.), Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef.
A Vulnerability Assessment. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park
Authority and Australian Greenhouse Office, pp. 516–554.
Feary, D. A., Almany, G. R., Jones, G. P., and McCormick, M. I.,
2007. Coral degradation and the structure of tropical reef fish
communities. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 333, 243–248.
Feely, R. A., Sabine, C. L., Lee, K., Berelson, W., Kleypas, J.,
Fabry, V. J., and Millero, F. J., 2004. Impact of anthropogenic
CO 2 on the CaCO 3 system in the oceans. Science, 305, 362–366.
Game, E. T., Watts, M. E., Wooldridge, S., and Possingham, H. P.,
2008. Planning for persistence in marine reserves; a question
of catastrophic importance. Ecological Applications, 18,
670–680.
Gardner, T. A., Cote, I. M., Gill, J. A., Grant, A., and Watkinson,
A. R., 2005. Hurricanes and Caribbean coral reefs: impacts,
recovery, patterns, and role in long-term decline. Ecology, 86,
174–184.
Gledhill, D. K., Wanninkhof, R., Millero, F. J., and Eakin, C. M.,
2008. Ocean acidification of the Greater Caribbean Region
1996–2006. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, C10031,
doi:10.1029/2007JC004629.
206
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CORAL REEFS
Brown, B. E., 1987. Worldwide death of corals – natural cyclical
events or man-made pollution? Marine Pollution Bulletin, 18,
9–13.
Brown, B. E., 1997. Coral bleaching: causes and consequences.
Coral Reefs, 16, S129–S138.
Brown, B. E., and Dunne, R. P., 2008. Solar radiation modulates
bleaching and damage protection in a shallow water coral.
Marine Ecology Progress Series, 362, 99–107.
Bruno, J. F., Selig, E. R., Casey, K. S., Page, C. A., Willis, B. L.,
Harvell, C. D., Sweatman, H., and Melendy, A. M., 2007. Thermal stress and coral cover as drivers of coral disease outbreaks.
PLoS Biology, 5, e124, doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0050124.
Buddemeier, R. W., Kleypas, J. A., and Aronson, R. B., 2004. Coral
Reefs and Global Climate Change. Arlington, VA: Pew Center
on Global Climate Change.
Canadell, J. G., La Quere, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B.,
Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P.,
Houghton, R. A., and Marland, G., 2007. Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon
intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,
104, 18866–18870.
Cao, L., and Caldeira, K., 2008. Atmospheric CO 2 stabilization and
ocean acidification. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L19609,
doi:10.1029/2008GL035072.
Carpenter, K. E., Abrar, M., Aeby, G., Aronson, R. B., Banks, S.,
Bruckner, A., Chiriboga, A., Cortes, J., Delbeek, J. C.,
DeVantier, L., Edgar, G. J., Edwards, A. J., Fenner, D., Guzman,
H. M., Hoeksema, B. W., Hodgson, G., Johan, O., Licuanan,
W. Y., Livingstone, S. R., Lovell, E. R., Moore, J. A., Obura,
D. O., Ochavillo, D., Polidoro, B. A., Precht, W. F., Quibilan,
M. C., Reboton, C., Richards, Z. T., Rogers, A. D., Sanciangco,
J., Sheppard, A., Sheppard, C., Smith, J., Stuart, S., Turak, E.,
Veron, J. E. N., Wallace, C., Weil, E., and Wood, E., 2008.
One-third of reef-building corals face elevated extinction risk
from climate change and local impacts. Science, 321, 560–563.
Church, J. A., and White, N. J., 2006. A 20th century acceleration in
global sea-level rise. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L01602,
doi:10.1029/2005GL024826.
Coles, S. L., and Brown, E. K., 2007. Twenty-five years of change
in coral coverage on a hurricane impacted reef in Hawaii: the
importance of recruitment. Coral Reefs, 26, 705–717.
Coles, S. L., Jokiel, P. L., and Lewis, C. R., 1976. Thermal tolerance
in tropical versus subtropical Pacific reef corals. Pacific Science,
30, 159–166.
Crabbe, M. J. C., Martinez, E., Garcia, C., Chub, J., Castro, L., and
Guy, J., 2008. Growth modelling indicates hurricanes and severe
storms are linked to low coral recruitment in the Caribbean.
Marine Environmental Research, 65, 364–368.
De’ath, G., Lough, J. M., and Fabricius K. E., 2009. Declining coral
calcification on the Great Barrier Reef. Science, 323, 116–119.
Diaz-Pulido, G., McCook, L. J., Dove, S., Berkelmans, R., Roff, G.,
Kline, D. I., Weeks, S., Evans, R. D., Williamson, D. H., and
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., 2009. Doom and boom on a resilient reef:
climate change, algal overgrowth and coral recovery. PLoS
ONE, 44(4), e5239, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005239.
Dollar, S. J., 1982. Storm stress and coral community structure in
Hawaii. Coral Reefs, 1, 71–81.
Done, T. J., 1999. Coral community adaptability to environmental
change at the scales of regions, reefs and reef zones. American
Zoologist, 39, 66–79.
Done, T. J., and Jones, R. N., 2006. Tropical coastal ecosystems and
climate change prediction: global and local risks. In Phinney,
J. T., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Kleypas, J., Skirving, W., and
Strong, A. (eds.), Coral Reefs and Climate Change. Science
and Management, Coastal and Estuarine Studies. Washington,
DC: American Geophysical Union, Vol. 61, pp. 5–31.
Done, T., Turak, E., Wakeford, M., DeVantier, L., McDonald, A.,
and Fisk, D., 2007. Decadal changes in turbid-water coral communities at Pandora Reef: loss of resilience or too soon to tell?
Coral Reefs, 26, 789–805.
Doney, S. C., Fabry, V. J., Feely, R. A., and Kleypas, J. A., 2009.
Ocean acidification: the other CO 2 problem. Annual Review of
Marine Science, 1, 169–192.
Donner, S. D., Heron, S. F., and Skirving, W. J., 2009. Future scenarios; a review of modelling efforts to predict the future of coral
reefs in an era of climate change. In van Oppen, M. J. H., and
Lough, J. M. (eds.), Coral Bleaching. Patterns, Processes,
Causes and Consequences. Berlin: Springer, pp. 159–173.
Donner, S. D., and Potere, D., 2007. The inequity of the global
threat to coral reefs. Bioscience, 57, 214–215.
Donner, S. D., Skirving, W. J., Little, C. M., Oppenheimer, M., and
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., 2005. Global assessment of coral
bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change.
Global Change Biology, 11, 2251–2265.
Downs, C. A., Woodley, C. M., Richmond, R. H., Lanning, L. L.,
and Owen, R., 2005. Shifting the paradigm of coral-reef ‘health’
assessment. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 51, 486–494.
Eakin, C. M., Lough, J. M., and Heron, S. F., 2009. Climate variability and change: monitoring data and evidence for increased coral
bleaching stress. In van Oppen, M. J. H., and Lough, J. M. (eds.),
Coral Bleaching. Patterns, Processes, Causes and Consequences. Berlin: Springer, pp. 41–67.
Edmunds, P. J., 2004. Juvenile coral population dynamics track rising seawater temperature on a Caribbean reef. Marine Ecology
Progress Series, 269, 111–119.
Edmunds, P. J., 2007. Evidence for a decadal-scale decline in the
growth rates of juvenile scleractinian corals. Marine Ecology
Progress Series, 341, 1–13.
Elvidge, C. D., Dietz, J. B., Berkelmans, R., Andrefouet, S.,
Skirving, W., Strong, A. E., and Tuttle, B. T., 2004. Satellite
observation of Keppel Islands (Great Barrier Reef) 2002 coral
bleaching using IKONOS data. Coral Reefs, 23, 123–132.
Emanuel, K., 2003. Tropical cyclones Annual Review of Earth and
Planetary Sciences, 31, 75–104.
Fabricius, K. E., 2005. Effects of terrestrial runoff on the ecology of
corals and coral reefs: review and synthesis. Marine Pollution
Bulletin, 50, 125–146.
Fabricius, K. E., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Johnson, J., McCook, L., and
Lough, J., 2007. The vulnerability of coral reef ecosystems of
the Great Barrier Reef to climate change. In Johnson, J., and
Marshall, P. (eds.), Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef.
A Vulnerability Assessment. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park
Authority and Australian Greenhouse Office, pp. 516–554.
Feary, D. A., Almany, G. R., Jones, G. P., and McCormick, M. I.,
2007. Coral degradation and the structure of tropical reef fish
communities. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 333, 243–248.
Feely, R. A., Sabine, C. L., Lee, K., Berelson, W., Kleypas, J.,
Fabry, V. J., and Millero, F. J., 2004. Impact of anthropogenic
CO 2 on the CaCO 3 system in the oceans. Science, 305, 362–366.
Game, E. T., Watts, M. E., Wooldridge, S., and Possingham, H. P.,
2008. Planning for persistence in marine reserves; a question
of catastrophic importance. Ecological Applications, 18,
670–680.
Gardner, T. A., Cote, I. M., Gill, J. A., Grant, A., and Watkinson,
A. R., 2005. Hurricanes and Caribbean coral reefs: impacts,
recovery, patterns, and role in long-term decline. Ecology, 86,
174–184.
Gledhill, D. K., Wanninkhof, R., Millero, F. J., and Eakin, C. M.,
2008. Ocean acidification of the Greater Caribbean Region
1996–2006. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, C10031,
doi:10.1029/2007JC004629.
206
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CORAL REEFS