31
Upper Mississippi River
Adaptive Environmental Assessment
S. S. Light
31.1 Introduction
Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA) employs computer simulation as a tool for understanding complex natural systems and exploring alternative management scenarios for those systems.
The technique has been used in such areas as the
Everglades, Columbia River, and Canadian forests,
which, like the Upper Mississippi River, have competing scientific explanations for how they function and controversies regarding how they should
be managed.
In 1995, an AEA process was initiated on the
Upper Mississippi River (UMR). This report describes the accomplishments of the first phase of
that process and summarizes the remaining work
to be accomplished. (See Appendix 31.1 for a list
of other reports related to phase I of the UMR
AEA.)
31.2 Background
31.2.1 A Time for Decisions
The Upper Mississippi River is a national resource
facing a growing number of demands as it moves
into the 21st century. Shipping interests want to see
the river improved as a transportation corridor.
Boaters, anglers, and hunters flock to the Mighty
Miss for a variety of recreational pursuits. Biologists and conservationists hope to preserve the river
The editor of this case study gratefully acknowledges the
contributions of Mike Davis, John Duyvejonck, Bob
Gaugush, Lance Gunderson, Barry Johnson, Steve Johnson, Josh Korman, Dan McGuiness, Terry Moe, Barbara
Naramore, Garry Peterson, Richard Sparks, Holly Stoerker, Stan Trimble, and Carl Walters.
460
as a healthy and complex ecosystem. Out of these
multiple demands arise differing opinions on how
the river should be managed.
In the next few years a number of key decisions
on river management will be made with lasting consequences for the economic and ecological future
of the Upper Mississippi River (see Figure 31.1).
As decision time approaches and the differences
that separate people become more prominent, scientists and other experts will be called on to support people's positions and to defend the merits of
various assertions. People will expect science to
provide clear answers based on irrefutable evidence.
In a system as complex as the Mississippi,
though, there are no easy answers, and clarity is often lost in the details, buried in volumes of analytical data. If science is to productively advise the
decision-making process, it must be used in an alternative fashion that prepares us to make choices
by helping us develop a more thorough understanding. It must embrace an approach that avoids
the temptation of "the answer," focusing instead on
the big picture and multiple views of the future.
31.2.2 Piecing the River Puzzle Together
There are two types of science: the science of parts
and the science of the integration of parts. The science of parts (i.e., deduction) helps us to test an
idea and explain what happens. The science of the
integration of parts helps us to understand the range
of ideas that might be useful in solving a problem.
The two modes of science complement each other.
The integrative mode attempts to make sure that
we are solving the right problem, while the deductive mode tells us whether we have the right solution. Both modes are useful for different reasons.
Upper Mississippi River
Adaptive Environmental Assessment
S. S. Light
31.1 Introduction
Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA) employs computer simulation as a tool for understanding complex natural systems and exploring alternative management scenarios for those systems.
The technique has been used in such areas as the
Everglades, Columbia River, and Canadian forests,
which, like the Upper Mississippi River, have competing scientific explanations for how they function and controversies regarding how they should
be managed.
In 1995, an AEA process was initiated on the
Upper Mississippi River (UMR). This report describes the accomplishments of the first phase of
that process and summarizes the remaining work
to be accomplished. (See Appendix 31.1 for a list
of other reports related to phase I of the UMR
AEA.)
31.2 Background
31.2.1 A Time for Decisions
The Upper Mississippi River is a national resource
facing a growing number of demands as it moves
into the 21st century. Shipping interests want to see
the river improved as a transportation corridor.
Boaters, anglers, and hunters flock to the Mighty
Miss for a variety of recreational pursuits. Biologists and conservationists hope to preserve the river
The editor of this case study gratefully acknowledges the
contributions of Mike Davis, John Duyvejonck, Bob
Gaugush, Lance Gunderson, Barry Johnson, Steve Johnson, Josh Korman, Dan McGuiness, Terry Moe, Barbara
Naramore, Garry Peterson, Richard Sparks, Holly Stoerker, Stan Trimble, and Carl Walters.
460
as a healthy and complex ecosystem. Out of these
multiple demands arise differing opinions on how
the river should be managed.
In the next few years a number of key decisions
on river management will be made with lasting consequences for the economic and ecological future
of the Upper Mississippi River (see Figure 31.1).
As decision time approaches and the differences
that separate people become more prominent, scientists and other experts will be called on to support people's positions and to defend the merits of
various assertions. People will expect science to
provide clear answers based on irrefutable evidence.
In a system as complex as the Mississippi,
though, there are no easy answers, and clarity is often lost in the details, buried in volumes of analytical data. If science is to productively advise the
decision-making process, it must be used in an alternative fashion that prepares us to make choices
by helping us develop a more thorough understanding. It must embrace an approach that avoids
the temptation of "the answer," focusing instead on
the big picture and multiple views of the future.
31.2.2 Piecing the River Puzzle Together
There are two types of science: the science of parts
and the science of the integration of parts. The science of parts (i.e., deduction) helps us to test an
idea and explain what happens. The science of the
integration of parts helps us to understand the range
of ideas that might be useful in solving a problem.
The two modes of science complement each other.
The integrative mode attempts to make sure that
we are solving the right problem, while the deductive mode tells us whether we have the right solution. Both modes are useful for different reasons.