and the rectangles suggest where models can be used. Thus, models can
contribute to determining goals and values, characterizing conditions,
integrating information, forecasting, assessing and narrowing options, and
conducting postdecision analysis.
Another concern is who should be doing the modeling. Should only the
modelers be using them, or should the modeler’s goal be technical transfer
of the model to the decision makers and their staff? This conundrum can
be broken down along a continuum of scenarios:
• Modeling should be done entirely by the modelers.
• Modeling should be done by technical staff if the model is properly set
up, the staff has been trained, and there is a clear understanding of how
to use it and for what purpose (including presenting and interpreting
results).
• The model should be made a part of the decision maker’s routine
operation.
There are situations for which each scenario applies. The ideal use of the
model should be that which is most effective for the management issue and
the state of the knowledge.
The final question is, How to establish a climate so that models are more
frequently and effectively used? One answer to this question is to establish
modeling capabilities and infrastructure within resource management
organizations so that, when the need for models arises, people are ready to
accept and implement the modeling approach. This infrastructure involves
hardware and software that provide the capability to resource managers
and even to stakeholders to run the models in the same way that the developers of these tools are able to do. It also involves education about the
technology and language so that resource managers can read and understand the analysis. Often, modeling assistance comes from outside groups.
A perspective open to the modeling process and results means that model
projections are more likely to be accepted.
6.6 Conclusions
In this chapter, the discussion focused on situations in which models can,
should, or have been used as well as on how models helped or could have
helped the decisions. Our perspective is that models and sound science
should be used because they can improve the decision process or the likelihood of making the best decision with the available data and the understanding of the processes involved. Such an adoption of models will cost
more, take more time, and be potentially more complex, but it will improve
the management of natural resources and will save money and other
resources in the long term.
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contribute to determining goals and values, characterizing conditions,
integrating information, forecasting, assessing and narrowing options, and
conducting postdecision analysis.
Another concern is who should be doing the modeling. Should only the
modelers be using them, or should the modeler’s goal be technical transfer
of the model to the decision makers and their staff? This conundrum can
be broken down along a continuum of scenarios:
• Modeling should be done entirely by the modelers.
• Modeling should be done by technical staff if the model is properly set
up, the staff has been trained, and there is a clear understanding of how
to use it and for what purpose (including presenting and interpreting
results).
• The model should be made a part of the decision maker’s routine
operation.
There are situations for which each scenario applies. The ideal use of the
model should be that which is most effective for the management issue and
the state of the knowledge.
The final question is, How to establish a climate so that models are more
frequently and effectively used? One answer to this question is to establish
modeling capabilities and infrastructure within resource management
organizations so that, when the need for models arises, people are ready to
accept and implement the modeling approach. This infrastructure involves
hardware and software that provide the capability to resource managers
and even to stakeholders to run the models in the same way that the developers of these tools are able to do. It also involves education about the
technology and language so that resource managers can read and understand the analysis. Often, modeling assistance comes from outside groups.
A perspective open to the modeling process and results means that model
projections are more likely to be accepted.
6.6 Conclusions
In this chapter, the discussion focused on situations in which models can,
should, or have been used as well as on how models helped or could have
helped the decisions. Our perspective is that models and sound science
should be used because they can improve the decision process or the likelihood of making the best decision with the available data and the understanding of the processes involved. Such an adoption of models will cost
more, take more time, and be potentially more complex, but it will improve
the management of natural resources and will save money and other
resources in the long term.
120
Virginia H. Dale et al.