audience when they need it. The funding required for model development
is often a barrier because the need for data accumulation, conceptualization,
and development of a model is often not given enough value.
One metric of the low value given to conceptual models is how rarely
conceptual models by themselves are published in the scientific literature.
Typically, it is the application of conceptual models that is published. But
in actuality, the development of the conceptual model is often the more
useful task, and the applicability of the conceptual model to a variety of
situations needs to be further explored. Data availability can also be a logistical barrier to the use of models for resource management. Without the
requisite baseline data at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales, it is
not useful to develop or use a model.
6.2.5 Problems with Models
The last generalized barrier is the capability of the models themselves.
Often, the data are not available or are insufficient, the key processes are
not well understood, or the tools needed to develop a model quickly and
apply it to the situation are lacking so that the model is not developed
and/or adopted to the particular situation at hand. There is great hope,
however, that with expanding capabilities in technology, in the Internet, and
in databases and tools for model development this barrier will be overcome
quickly. Models may not be available that address the primary concerns of
resource managers. However, as more managers get involved in partnerships with those who develop models, pertinent questions are more often
considered, and models are specialized to address specific needs.
Another type of barrier to models is the potential for the abuse of
models, thus making it harder for legitimate models to be accepted. One
possible abuse of models is that they can show outcomes with convincing
realism (aka glitz) but can be totally bogus. An additional potential abuse
is concern about interactions that are not captured by a model. The holistic perspective of many models provides opportunities for the arguments
about factors not included in the analysis to spin off into infinite hyperbole.
For example, insights gleaned from models of global environmental values
could easily be sidetracked by discussions about concerns in the inadequacy
of such models (Costanza et al. 1997). A third type of model abuse occurs
when data are extrapolated beyond the range of reasonable use. Data
are often so sparse that relationships are not plausible or knowable. Such
extrapolation mistakes can be accidental or on purpose. The effect on the
model projection is the same. This potential barrier to the use of models
can best be reduced if the assumptions and sources of information for a
model are clearly specified.
The lack of independent review of models also constrains their effective
use. However, applying the peer review process to models is typically not
possible because the reviewer does not have access to the model. Instead,
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is often a barrier because the need for data accumulation, conceptualization,
and development of a model is often not given enough value.
One metric of the low value given to conceptual models is how rarely
conceptual models by themselves are published in the scientific literature.
Typically, it is the application of conceptual models that is published. But
in actuality, the development of the conceptual model is often the more
useful task, and the applicability of the conceptual model to a variety of
situations needs to be further explored. Data availability can also be a logistical barrier to the use of models for resource management. Without the
requisite baseline data at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales, it is
not useful to develop or use a model.
6.2.5 Problems with Models
The last generalized barrier is the capability of the models themselves.
Often, the data are not available or are insufficient, the key processes are
not well understood, or the tools needed to develop a model quickly and
apply it to the situation are lacking so that the model is not developed
and/or adopted to the particular situation at hand. There is great hope,
however, that with expanding capabilities in technology, in the Internet, and
in databases and tools for model development this barrier will be overcome
quickly. Models may not be available that address the primary concerns of
resource managers. However, as more managers get involved in partnerships with those who develop models, pertinent questions are more often
considered, and models are specialized to address specific needs.
Another type of barrier to models is the potential for the abuse of
models, thus making it harder for legitimate models to be accepted. One
possible abuse of models is that they can show outcomes with convincing
realism (aka glitz) but can be totally bogus. An additional potential abuse
is concern about interactions that are not captured by a model. The holistic perspective of many models provides opportunities for the arguments
about factors not included in the analysis to spin off into infinite hyperbole.
For example, insights gleaned from models of global environmental values
could easily be sidetracked by discussions about concerns in the inadequacy
of such models (Costanza et al. 1997). A third type of model abuse occurs
when data are extrapolated beyond the range of reasonable use. Data
are often so sparse that relationships are not plausible or knowable. Such
extrapolation mistakes can be accidental or on purpose. The effect on the
model projection is the same. This potential barrier to the use of models
can best be reduced if the assumptions and sources of information for a
model are clearly specified.
The lack of independent review of models also constrains their effective
use. However, applying the peer review process to models is typically not
possible because the reviewer does not have access to the model. Instead,
114
Virginia H. Dale et al.