opposite is typically the case. Models allow explicit quantification of risks
and require that the relationships between component parts be set forth.
Making clear such values and relations means that the ramifications of
decisions are more fully specified. Thus, risks are reduced.
Any part of the decision-making process that may be changed also causes
a series of risks. Modelers themselves are uncomfortable with errors inherent in their inputs and outputs and spend much effort checking the data
that is part of the model or validating the model (e.g., by backcasting to see
if historical events can be modeled and investigating any discrepancies).
Another concern is that managers typically do not want to be in situations
where their power or influence can be undermined by a change in understanding. The use of models allows risks to be quantified and represented
in spatial and temporal dimensions that are meaningful to individuals.
Often, models allow the playing out of various alternatives, including those
that prove undesirable. For instance, one may project the use of resources
20 years into the future, even if an organization may not wish to go through
the steps of implementing how current policy would play out to that
20-year vision. Models allow simulated resource use and management to
occur according to scenarios that might not be acceptable to management
or public concerns.
6.2.4 Resource Concerns
Resource concerns constitute a fourth generalized barrier to the use of
ecological models and can often be traced to inadequate time and funding.
Both risk issues and resource hindrances in the use of ecological models in
decision making often arise from within institutions. Organizations may not
have the appropriate resources, in terms of people, facilities, or structures
that support the use of ecological models. For instance, qualified personnel
who understand the use of models, are familiar with the language of models,
or are able to envision the applicability of modeling results are frequently
lacking. Not everyone may have access to a computer or other equipment
required to run a model. They may not have been trained in the software
being used, or the user interface may be inadequate or downright user surly.
The time required for model development is often on the scale of years and
may be out of sync with the interval for which the tool is needed to make
decisions. Thus, sometimes models are used only if they can be adopted
from other situations (and therefore may not be appropriate for the given
application).
More often, a model is not used because of time constraints. A way
around this barrier is greater forethought by those who fund the development of models for environmental decision making so that the suite
of models appropriate for the majority of decisions would be developed
beforehand and made available to both the scientific and the decision-maker
6. Barriers to the Use of Ecological Models in Decision Making
113
and require that the relationships between component parts be set forth.
Making clear such values and relations means that the ramifications of
decisions are more fully specified. Thus, risks are reduced.
Any part of the decision-making process that may be changed also causes
a series of risks. Modelers themselves are uncomfortable with errors inherent in their inputs and outputs and spend much effort checking the data
that is part of the model or validating the model (e.g., by backcasting to see
if historical events can be modeled and investigating any discrepancies).
Another concern is that managers typically do not want to be in situations
where their power or influence can be undermined by a change in understanding. The use of models allows risks to be quantified and represented
in spatial and temporal dimensions that are meaningful to individuals.
Often, models allow the playing out of various alternatives, including those
that prove undesirable. For instance, one may project the use of resources
20 years into the future, even if an organization may not wish to go through
the steps of implementing how current policy would play out to that
20-year vision. Models allow simulated resource use and management to
occur according to scenarios that might not be acceptable to management
or public concerns.
6.2.4 Resource Concerns
Resource concerns constitute a fourth generalized barrier to the use of
ecological models and can often be traced to inadequate time and funding.
Both risk issues and resource hindrances in the use of ecological models in
decision making often arise from within institutions. Organizations may not
have the appropriate resources, in terms of people, facilities, or structures
that support the use of ecological models. For instance, qualified personnel
who understand the use of models, are familiar with the language of models,
or are able to envision the applicability of modeling results are frequently
lacking. Not everyone may have access to a computer or other equipment
required to run a model. They may not have been trained in the software
being used, or the user interface may be inadequate or downright user surly.
The time required for model development is often on the scale of years and
may be out of sync with the interval for which the tool is needed to make
decisions. Thus, sometimes models are used only if they can be adopted
from other situations (and therefore may not be appropriate for the given
application).
More often, a model is not used because of time constraints. A way
around this barrier is greater forethought by those who fund the development of models for environmental decision making so that the suite
of models appropriate for the majority of decisions would be developed
beforehand and made available to both the scientific and the decision-maker
6. Barriers to the Use of Ecological Models in Decision Making
113