316
Index
Model (continued)
see also BPs; Matrix models for
population growth
initial size, 66, 101, 103, 112, 113,
134 –143, 153, 177, 178, 179, 184,
204, 276, 277, 278, 282
precision, 48, 87, 89, 97, 98, 100, 102,
103, 111, 118, 173, 180, 183, 218;
see also Abundance, estimation,
accuracy
imprecise, 88, 97, 98, 99, 123, 136,
145
predictive power, 32, 34, 36, 199, 260,
262, 263, 267
processing outliers, 30, 67, 68, 89, 92,
135
specification, 30–34, 45, 88–93, 138,
201, 303; see also Variable,
selection
stochastic, 35, 128, 149, 154, 159, 165,
172, 181, 189, 191, 199, 202, 218,
284 –288, 303, 305; see also
Demographic patterns, stochasticity; Markov chain; Variation
structure, 29, 31, 42, 44, 66, 111, 112,
115, 116, 121, 123, 129, 133, 136,
152, 171, 190, 199, 203, 214, 216,
219; see also Age, structure; Baysian statistics, belief network; Matrix models for population growth,
stage-based; Sex ratio
additive, 69, 84, 87, 116, 155, 202,
203, 214, 263, 295, 296; see also
GAM
autoregressive, 135, 213
linear, 10, 12, 13, 32, 40, 42, 48, 52,
53, 66, 67, 84, 135, 148–151, 154,
161, 164, 179, 181, 182, 276, 286,
287, 293, 296, 297, 304
log-linear, 154
multiplicative, 84, 154, 161, 200,
207, 208, 209, 276
nonlinear, 29, 30, 32, 34, 42, 155
quadratic, 48, 52, 278
state variable, 154, 188–197, 200,
201, 207, 224
sustainable harvesting levels, 107, 109–
124; see also CLA
systematic, 42, 84, 130, 261, 301
time frame, 66, 67, 69, 73, 104 –106,
115, 136, 159, 178, 185, 191, 192,
208, 214 –217, 243, 286, 297, 298
infinite, 200, 201, 204, 205, 212
limitations of long term predictions,
112, 123, 152, 153, 161, 169, 180–
184, 260, 303, 304
maximum, 182, 183
time step, 11, 13, 14, 19, 65, 103, 112,
130, 135, 149, 153, 171, 174, 191,
192, 242, 276
continuous, 12, 13, 19, 48, 153, 218
discrete, 8, 192, 200, 214, 218, 223,
242, 264
per generation, 277, 279, 286
updates, 130, 132, 260, 268
validation, 33, 113–117, 135, 137, 141,
145, 165, 190, 199, 205, 261, 267;
see also Sensitivity analysis
comparing against “true” circumstances, 10, 12–14, 41, 42, 48, 54,
69, 92, 102, 112, 114, 123, 128,
130, 183, 264
comparing models, 32, 39–54, 69,
102, 121, 164, 188, 218, 243, 263,
268, 269
robustness trials, 32, 103, 106, 114,
115, 116, 162, 165
selecting data for validation, 10, 43,
46, 48, 50, 51, 52, 53, 90, 123
varying parameters, 65–67, 101–103,
135, 136, 139, 171–179, 193, 276,
280–287, 297; see also Elasticity
analysis; Sensitivity analysis
proportionately, 3, 96, 116, 149, 161,
162, 180, 183, 205, 242, 276
varying scenarios, 10, 14, 19, 84, 104,
105, 107, 114, 149, 154, 158, 160,
165, 182, 183, 196, 283
Monitor, 22, 62, 64, 73, 84, 101, 109,
110, 114, 117, 118, 120, 122, 123,
157, 159, 231, 245, 262, 264
Monte Carlo process, 64, 81, 84, 87, 92,
93, 135, 216, 287
Mortality, 59, 60, 73, 96, 100, 101, 103,
106, 150–161, 190, 192, 201, 245;
see also Survival
causes, 66, 81, 97, 114, 148, 149, 154,
156, 157, 160, 163, 193, 194, 196,
211, 214, 229, 242, 279
Mutation, 43, 227, 229, 230, 237, 238,
240, 242, 259, 260, 267, 268,
274 –279, 282, 287
rate, 230, 275, 277, 278, 279, 288
Neural networks, 41
NGOs (conservation), 61, 62, 102, 104,
107, 109–124, 158; see also IUCN
Index
Model (continued)
see also BPs; Matrix models for
population growth
initial size, 66, 101, 103, 112, 113,
134 –143, 153, 177, 178, 179, 184,
204, 276, 277, 278, 282
precision, 48, 87, 89, 97, 98, 100, 102,
103, 111, 118, 173, 180, 183, 218;
see also Abundance, estimation,
accuracy
imprecise, 88, 97, 98, 99, 123, 136,
145
predictive power, 32, 34, 36, 199, 260,
262, 263, 267
processing outliers, 30, 67, 68, 89, 92,
135
specification, 30–34, 45, 88–93, 138,
201, 303; see also Variable,
selection
stochastic, 35, 128, 149, 154, 159, 165,
172, 181, 189, 191, 199, 202, 218,
284 –288, 303, 305; see also
Demographic patterns, stochasticity; Markov chain; Variation
structure, 29, 31, 42, 44, 66, 111, 112,
115, 116, 121, 123, 129, 133, 136,
152, 171, 190, 199, 203, 214, 216,
219; see also Age, structure; Baysian statistics, belief network; Matrix models for population growth,
stage-based; Sex ratio
additive, 69, 84, 87, 116, 155, 202,
203, 214, 263, 295, 296; see also
GAM
autoregressive, 135, 213
linear, 10, 12, 13, 32, 40, 42, 48, 52,
53, 66, 67, 84, 135, 148–151, 154,
161, 164, 179, 181, 182, 276, 286,
287, 293, 296, 297, 304
log-linear, 154
multiplicative, 84, 154, 161, 200,
207, 208, 209, 276
nonlinear, 29, 30, 32, 34, 42, 155
quadratic, 48, 52, 278
state variable, 154, 188–197, 200,
201, 207, 224
sustainable harvesting levels, 107, 109–
124; see also CLA
systematic, 42, 84, 130, 261, 301
time frame, 66, 67, 69, 73, 104 –106,
115, 136, 159, 178, 185, 191, 192,
208, 214 –217, 243, 286, 297, 298
infinite, 200, 201, 204, 205, 212
limitations of long term predictions,
112, 123, 152, 153, 161, 169, 180–
184, 260, 303, 304
maximum, 182, 183
time step, 11, 13, 14, 19, 65, 103, 112,
130, 135, 149, 153, 171, 174, 191,
192, 242, 276
continuous, 12, 13, 19, 48, 153, 218
discrete, 8, 192, 200, 214, 218, 223,
242, 264
per generation, 277, 279, 286
updates, 130, 132, 260, 268
validation, 33, 113–117, 135, 137, 141,
145, 165, 190, 199, 205, 261, 267;
see also Sensitivity analysis
comparing against “true” circumstances, 10, 12–14, 41, 42, 48, 54,
69, 92, 102, 112, 114, 123, 128,
130, 183, 264
comparing models, 32, 39–54, 69,
102, 121, 164, 188, 218, 243, 263,
268, 269
robustness trials, 32, 103, 106, 114,
115, 116, 162, 165
selecting data for validation, 10, 43,
46, 48, 50, 51, 52, 53, 90, 123
varying parameters, 65–67, 101–103,
135, 136, 139, 171–179, 193, 276,
280–287, 297; see also Elasticity
analysis; Sensitivity analysis
proportionately, 3, 96, 116, 149, 161,
162, 180, 183, 205, 242, 276
varying scenarios, 10, 14, 19, 84, 104,
105, 107, 114, 149, 154, 158, 160,
165, 182, 183, 196, 283
Monitor, 22, 62, 64, 73, 84, 101, 109,
110, 114, 117, 118, 120, 122, 123,
157, 159, 231, 245, 262, 264
Monte Carlo process, 64, 81, 84, 87, 92,
93, 135, 216, 287
Mortality, 59, 60, 73, 96, 100, 101, 103,
106, 150–161, 190, 192, 201, 245;
see also Survival
causes, 66, 81, 97, 114, 148, 149, 154,
156, 157, 160, 163, 193, 194, 196,
211, 214, 229, 242, 279
Mutation, 43, 227, 229, 230, 237, 238,
240, 242, 259, 260, 267, 268,
274 –279, 282, 287
rate, 230, 275, 277, 278, 279, 288
Neural networks, 41
NGOs (conservation), 61, 62, 102, 104,
107, 109–124, 158; see also IUCN