1 Oceans from Space, a Once-a-Decade Review of Progress
3
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Start of year
Mauna Loa CO
2 (parts per million)
Fig. 1.1 The keeling curve: monthly averages of carbon dioxide in the northern hemisphere
atmosphere, measured on Mauna Loa, Hawaii (20 ◦ N)
much-feared doubling refers to 560. The proposed world target of 350 ppm 2 was
passed in about 1988 with no sign of slowing down.
When the annual cycle is removed, the curve shows a continuing and nearconstant acceleration in CO 2 concentration, in spite of the stated aim of almost
all national governments to reduce rates of emission. A good fit to the (12-month
averaged) Keeling data between 1957 and 2009 is
CO 2 (ppm) = 297 + 0.011(year − 1919)
2
(1.1)
If this trend of the past 50 years continues into the future, the world will get to
410 ppm by 2020, the possible date of the next Venice conference, and we will see
doubling of the pre-industrial value by 2073.
If the best fit, constant acceleration, curve of equation (1.1) is subtracted
from the Keeling data, the residual differences show peaks in CO 2 concentrations which correlate with El-Nino (Fig. 1.2). They also show a single peak at
1990 which the Keeling research group at Scripps were unable to explain (Keeling
et al., 1995).
At present, the Keeling curve continues its acceleration, even though the world
entered a major economic recession in 2007, which would be expected to reduce
emissions. A recent analysis predicted that the recession would change the present
growth rate in emissions from their average rise of about 2.5% per year, to a drop
of 3% for 2009. Such a drop is only by about 0.11 ppm in 1 year. It would need to
continue for several years before it would be evident, given the variability shown in
Fig. 1.2.
2 See http://www.350.org
3
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Start of year
Mauna Loa CO
2 (parts per million)
Fig. 1.1 The keeling curve: monthly averages of carbon dioxide in the northern hemisphere
atmosphere, measured on Mauna Loa, Hawaii (20 ◦ N)
much-feared doubling refers to 560. The proposed world target of 350 ppm 2 was
passed in about 1988 with no sign of slowing down.
When the annual cycle is removed, the curve shows a continuing and nearconstant acceleration in CO 2 concentration, in spite of the stated aim of almost
all national governments to reduce rates of emission. A good fit to the (12-month
averaged) Keeling data between 1957 and 2009 is
CO 2 (ppm) = 297 + 0.011(year − 1919)
2
(1.1)
If this trend of the past 50 years continues into the future, the world will get to
410 ppm by 2020, the possible date of the next Venice conference, and we will see
doubling of the pre-industrial value by 2073.
If the best fit, constant acceleration, curve of equation (1.1) is subtracted
from the Keeling data, the residual differences show peaks in CO 2 concentrations which correlate with El-Nino (Fig. 1.2). They also show a single peak at
1990 which the Keeling research group at Scripps were unable to explain (Keeling
et al., 1995).
At present, the Keeling curve continues its acceleration, even though the world
entered a major economic recession in 2007, which would be expected to reduce
emissions. A recent analysis predicted that the recession would change the present
growth rate in emissions from their average rise of about 2.5% per year, to a drop
of 3% for 2009. Such a drop is only by about 0.11 ppm in 1 year. It would need to
continue for several years before it would be evident, given the variability shown in
Fig. 1.2.
2 See http://www.350.org