2
J.F.R. Gower
for transmitting and processing data. This capability takes us beyond the problem often talked about in the 1980s of “Drinking from a Fire-Hose.” I was never
sure that the analogy made the problem of handling large data flow seem serious.
Drinking from a fire-hose might be slightly messy, but one would never need to go
thirsty.
1.2 Ocean Satellites Showing a Changing World
Climate change is giving us all something to think about. It has huge social, economic and ethical implications. Scientifically though, it is fascinating. It keeps me
from retiring, and I am sure I am not alone in this. At the 2000 conference I said I
would like to stay working long enough to see the world agree that human-induced
climate change is happening, and to start to do something serious about it. I can now
see that this fails to give me any well-defined retirement date. A consensus has been
reached, but there will always be hold-outs. Action will be expensive and will benefit some people more than others. Wind farms are being built, and there are rumours
that coal-fired power stations are being closed, though many more are being built.
Today in Canada, we stress that the coal we are exporting is “metallurgical” (i.e.
needed for steel production) and therefore in some sense “greener” than coal being
burned for generation of electricity. We are having a harder time excusing our tar
sands, but exports of this relatively “high carbon” oil continue to increase. It seems
that the effects of climate change need to be much more strongly felt, by many more
people, before serious and concerted action occurs.
Ocean satellites are providing a number of time series that demonstrate the problems we are facing. I have my favorites and maybe you do too. I would like to
present a few here, and to suggest that we might consider awarding a Venice prize
for the chosen “best”. Some time series are longer than others and some, though
short, already have fascinating implications.
1.3 The Keeling Curve: Origin of All Climate
Change Time Series
For this conference I should emphasize ocean satellite data, but I need to start
where recent, human-induced climate change begins, at the Keeling curve. This is
a fascinating and frightening time series, 1 showing the CO 2 concentrations in the
atmosphere as measured on Mauna Loa in Hawaii. Figure 1.1 shows the monthly
averages, starting in 1957, curving upwards.
At the start of the series, values were near 315 parts per million (ppm), and
we have now reached 390. The agreed pre-industrial concentration is 280, so the
1 Available at http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2.html
J.F.R. Gower
for transmitting and processing data. This capability takes us beyond the problem often talked about in the 1980s of “Drinking from a Fire-Hose.” I was never
sure that the analogy made the problem of handling large data flow seem serious.
Drinking from a fire-hose might be slightly messy, but one would never need to go
thirsty.
1.2 Ocean Satellites Showing a Changing World
Climate change is giving us all something to think about. It has huge social, economic and ethical implications. Scientifically though, it is fascinating. It keeps me
from retiring, and I am sure I am not alone in this. At the 2000 conference I said I
would like to stay working long enough to see the world agree that human-induced
climate change is happening, and to start to do something serious about it. I can now
see that this fails to give me any well-defined retirement date. A consensus has been
reached, but there will always be hold-outs. Action will be expensive and will benefit some people more than others. Wind farms are being built, and there are rumours
that coal-fired power stations are being closed, though many more are being built.
Today in Canada, we stress that the coal we are exporting is “metallurgical” (i.e.
needed for steel production) and therefore in some sense “greener” than coal being
burned for generation of electricity. We are having a harder time excusing our tar
sands, but exports of this relatively “high carbon” oil continue to increase. It seems
that the effects of climate change need to be much more strongly felt, by many more
people, before serious and concerted action occurs.
Ocean satellites are providing a number of time series that demonstrate the problems we are facing. I have my favorites and maybe you do too. I would like to
present a few here, and to suggest that we might consider awarding a Venice prize
for the chosen “best”. Some time series are longer than others and some, though
short, already have fascinating implications.
1.3 The Keeling Curve: Origin of All Climate
Change Time Series
For this conference I should emphasize ocean satellite data, but I need to start
where recent, human-induced climate change begins, at the Keeling curve. This is
a fascinating and frightening time series, 1 showing the CO 2 concentrations in the
atmosphere as measured on Mauna Loa in Hawaii. Figure 1.1 shows the monthly
averages, starting in 1957, curving upwards.
At the start of the series, values were near 315 parts per million (ppm), and
we have now reached 390. The agreed pre-industrial concentration is 280, so the
1 Available at http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2.html