CHAPTER 18 • Management of Tokyo Bay
337
or to have little effect on the results. To evaluate combinations of policies, benefits and costs
that would be achieved if each strategy were applied and enforced were estimated.
18.3.1
Formulation of the Analysis
In this study the following specific condition were used for the analysis.
• The year 1980 was selected as the base year, and ca. 2000 as the target year;
• Costs and benefits were estimated in terms of constant prices as of 1980;
• Investment (capital) costs were converted to annualized costs using a Capital Recovery Factor (CRF) of 0.1, corresponding to an interest rate of 7.75% for 20 years.
Costs and benefits were thus calculated as annual figures, and the only criterion used
in evaluation was net .annual benefits, i.e., benefits minus costs;
• Certain major projects already underway were assumed to have been completed by
ca. 2000. These are a coastal highway between Kisarazu and Yokosuka along the
Tokyo Bay shoreline, a coastal railroad between Chiba and Tokyo, and the expansion of Haneda Airport.
In order to explore the implications of alternative mixes of uses, a number of cases
were defined. A case was defined as a combination of values of scenario variables (S)
and policy variables (P). Scenario variables refer to the variation resulting from overall social/economic conditions and related uncertainty in the future and are composed
of two major elements, i.e., population and level of industrial activities. Three scenarios
were defined and were characterized as:
• S-o: No change from base year of 1980 (also referred to as the base case);
• S-I: Moderate growth in both population and industrial activity; and
• S-2: Rapid growth in both population and industrial activity.
Estimated levels of the two variables in ca. 2000, based on various government studies, for each of the scenarios are shown in Table 18.5 for the four prefectures involved.
Policy variables refer to actions of the central and local governments which directly
affect specific uses of Tokyo Bay. The values of these variables used in the analysis are
described in the following sections.
Land reclamation for industrial sites and solid waste disposal. As indicated previously, almost all of the shallow waters in Tokyo Bay have been reclaimed and the demand for reclaimed land for sites for heavy industries has decreased to zero, if not to
negative. Therefore, except for the ongoing projects enumerated previously, no additional governmental actions which would result in significant land reclamation in the
bay were assumed to take place by ca. 2000. Thus, land reclamation is assumed to have
negligible impacts on ambient water quality, fisheries, and marine transport, over the
time period of the analysis.
Fisheries. Fisheries used to be a major commercial activity in Tokyo Bay. However, much
of the fishing activity was eliminated with the purchase of fishing rights in the ' 60S and
337
or to have little effect on the results. To evaluate combinations of policies, benefits and costs
that would be achieved if each strategy were applied and enforced were estimated.
18.3.1
Formulation of the Analysis
In this study the following specific condition were used for the analysis.
• The year 1980 was selected as the base year, and ca. 2000 as the target year;
• Costs and benefits were estimated in terms of constant prices as of 1980;
• Investment (capital) costs were converted to annualized costs using a Capital Recovery Factor (CRF) of 0.1, corresponding to an interest rate of 7.75% for 20 years.
Costs and benefits were thus calculated as annual figures, and the only criterion used
in evaluation was net .annual benefits, i.e., benefits minus costs;
• Certain major projects already underway were assumed to have been completed by
ca. 2000. These are a coastal highway between Kisarazu and Yokosuka along the
Tokyo Bay shoreline, a coastal railroad between Chiba and Tokyo, and the expansion of Haneda Airport.
In order to explore the implications of alternative mixes of uses, a number of cases
were defined. A case was defined as a combination of values of scenario variables (S)
and policy variables (P). Scenario variables refer to the variation resulting from overall social/economic conditions and related uncertainty in the future and are composed
of two major elements, i.e., population and level of industrial activities. Three scenarios
were defined and were characterized as:
• S-o: No change from base year of 1980 (also referred to as the base case);
• S-I: Moderate growth in both population and industrial activity; and
• S-2: Rapid growth in both population and industrial activity.
Estimated levels of the two variables in ca. 2000, based on various government studies, for each of the scenarios are shown in Table 18.5 for the four prefectures involved.
Policy variables refer to actions of the central and local governments which directly
affect specific uses of Tokyo Bay. The values of these variables used in the analysis are
described in the following sections.
Land reclamation for industrial sites and solid waste disposal. As indicated previously, almost all of the shallow waters in Tokyo Bay have been reclaimed and the demand for reclaimed land for sites for heavy industries has decreased to zero, if not to
negative. Therefore, except for the ongoing projects enumerated previously, no additional governmental actions which would result in significant land reclamation in the
bay were assumed to take place by ca. 2000. Thus, land reclamation is assumed to have
negligible impacts on ambient water quality, fisheries, and marine transport, over the
time period of the analysis.
Fisheries. Fisheries used to be a major commercial activity in Tokyo Bay. However, much
of the fishing activity was eliminated with the purchase of fishing rights in the ' 60S and