130
6 Prospects: Approaches of Integrated Management
Risk is the combination of the probability of a consequence and its magnitude. Therefore
risk considers the frequency or likelihood of occurrence of certain states or events (often
termed “hazards”) and the magnitude of the likely consequences associated with those
exposed to these hazardous states or events.
Uncertainty exists where there is a lack of knowledge concerning outcomes. Uncertainty
may result from an imprecise knowledge of the risk, that is, where the probabilities and
magnitude of either the hazard and/or their associated consequences are uncertain. Even
when there is a precise knowledge of these components there is still uncertainty because
outcomes are determined probabilistically.
Risk analysis is a methodology to objectively determine risk by analyzing and combining probabilities and consequences.
Risk perception is the view of risk held by a person or group and reflects cultural and
personal values, as well as experience.
Risk management is the complete process of risk analysis, risk assessment, option
appraisal and implementation of risk management measures.
Risk communication is any intentional exchange of information on environmental
and/or health risks between interested parties.
Vulnerability is the characteristic of a system that describes its potential to be harmed.
This can be considered as a combination of susceptibility and value.
Ambiguity existed for the determination of risk, for which different formulas are available. In technical projects risk will be determined by the product of probability of failure
and vulnerability (Gouldby and Samuels, 2005). For practical reasons and the purpose of
this book the following definition will be adopted:
Risk = Probability of Failure × Vulnerability
(6.1)
Risk can be tackled by influencing two items: the probability of failure or the vulnerability. The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) proposes a system of
classifying risks (WBGU, 1999), which is based on the following criteria (p. 58):
• Probability of occurrence
• Magnitude of damage
• Ubiquity (spatial dimension of damage)
• Persistence (contaminants accumulated over long periods)
• Irreversibility (damage cannot be remedied)
6 Prospects: Approaches of Integrated Management
Risk is the combination of the probability of a consequence and its magnitude. Therefore
risk considers the frequency or likelihood of occurrence of certain states or events (often
termed “hazards”) and the magnitude of the likely consequences associated with those
exposed to these hazardous states or events.
Uncertainty exists where there is a lack of knowledge concerning outcomes. Uncertainty
may result from an imprecise knowledge of the risk, that is, where the probabilities and
magnitude of either the hazard and/or their associated consequences are uncertain. Even
when there is a precise knowledge of these components there is still uncertainty because
outcomes are determined probabilistically.
Risk analysis is a methodology to objectively determine risk by analyzing and combining probabilities and consequences.
Risk perception is the view of risk held by a person or group and reflects cultural and
personal values, as well as experience.
Risk management is the complete process of risk analysis, risk assessment, option
appraisal and implementation of risk management measures.
Risk communication is any intentional exchange of information on environmental
and/or health risks between interested parties.
Vulnerability is the characteristic of a system that describes its potential to be harmed.
This can be considered as a combination of susceptibility and value.
Ambiguity existed for the determination of risk, for which different formulas are available. In technical projects risk will be determined by the product of probability of failure
and vulnerability (Gouldby and Samuels, 2005). For practical reasons and the purpose of
this book the following definition will be adopted:
Risk = Probability of Failure × Vulnerability
(6.1)
Risk can be tackled by influencing two items: the probability of failure or the vulnerability. The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) proposes a system of
classifying risks (WBGU, 1999), which is based on the following criteria (p. 58):
• Probability of occurrence
• Magnitude of damage
• Ubiquity (spatial dimension of damage)
• Persistence (contaminants accumulated over long periods)
• Irreversibility (damage cannot be remedied)