from the Quaternary, Neogene, Paleogene and Upper Cretaceous aquifers to the
Bay of Puck to be 0.03 km
3 year
−1 . Schlüter et al. (2004) estimated that the average
discharge rate to the Eckernfőrde Bay was equal to 0.16 km
3 year
−1 .
2.3 Predictions of Future Baltic Sea Climate Change
The climate change in the Baltic Sea region has been a subject of several international projects. As a result the knowledge of the past changes in climate have
progressed in the past two decades. Moreover, increasing effort is being paid to
comprehend and predict future climate change of the Baltic Sea region.
The assessment of the future climate change is based on general circulation
models which are downscaled by many methods (etc. statistical downscaling,
dynamical downscaling) or on regional climate models. Consequently the projected
climate changes with regard to different models have different uncertainties.
Nonetheless, model simulations project an increase in temperature in the Baltic Sea
region similarly to an increase of the global mean temperature. According to recent
findings (Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 137 2013) the largest warming
was projected in the north in winter. However, warm extremes in summer are also
expected to appear more often. It has been measured that surface waters in the
Baltic Sea have warmed in all seasons by up to 1 °C/decade since 1985. In a future
climate, the summer sea-surface temperature growth is likely to be about 2 °C in the
southern parts of the Baltic Sea and about 4 °C in the northern parts till 2100.
Moreover, sea-ice cover scenario simulations indicate its decrease in the Baltic Sea
in the future.
The precipitation in the Baltic Sea region during the past 100 years has not
shown a stable trend. However, a tendency of the increasing precipitation in winter
and spring has detected during the second half of the 20th century. Precipitation
impacts river runoff. Thus, river runoff over the past century have shown a decrease
in annual discharges from southern part of the catchment. This indicates that the
southern regions of the Baltic Sea Basin may become drier with rising air temperatures. In contrast, trends in the north and around the Gulf of Finland indicate
increased annual stream flows under warmer temperatures (BSEP 137).
The predictions of future precipitation indicate an increase in the entire Baltic
Sea region during winter, while in the summer increases in precipitation are mainly
projected only for the northern half of the basin.
The models simulations concerning future sea-level rise are still uncertain
although the high-end scenarios project from 0.6 to 1.1 m sea-level rise for the next
century for the Baltic Sea.
66
B. Szymczycha
Bay of Puck to be 0.03 km
3 year
−1 . Schlüter et al. (2004) estimated that the average
discharge rate to the Eckernfőrde Bay was equal to 0.16 km
3 year
−1 .
2.3 Predictions of Future Baltic Sea Climate Change
The climate change in the Baltic Sea region has been a subject of several international projects. As a result the knowledge of the past changes in climate have
progressed in the past two decades. Moreover, increasing effort is being paid to
comprehend and predict future climate change of the Baltic Sea region.
The assessment of the future climate change is based on general circulation
models which are downscaled by many methods (etc. statistical downscaling,
dynamical downscaling) or on regional climate models. Consequently the projected
climate changes with regard to different models have different uncertainties.
Nonetheless, model simulations project an increase in temperature in the Baltic Sea
region similarly to an increase of the global mean temperature. According to recent
findings (Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 137 2013) the largest warming
was projected in the north in winter. However, warm extremes in summer are also
expected to appear more often. It has been measured that surface waters in the
Baltic Sea have warmed in all seasons by up to 1 °C/decade since 1985. In a future
climate, the summer sea-surface temperature growth is likely to be about 2 °C in the
southern parts of the Baltic Sea and about 4 °C in the northern parts till 2100.
Moreover, sea-ice cover scenario simulations indicate its decrease in the Baltic Sea
in the future.
The precipitation in the Baltic Sea region during the past 100 years has not
shown a stable trend. However, a tendency of the increasing precipitation in winter
and spring has detected during the second half of the 20th century. Precipitation
impacts river runoff. Thus, river runoff over the past century have shown a decrease
in annual discharges from southern part of the catchment. This indicates that the
southern regions of the Baltic Sea Basin may become drier with rising air temperatures. In contrast, trends in the north and around the Gulf of Finland indicate
increased annual stream flows under warmer temperatures (BSEP 137).
The predictions of future precipitation indicate an increase in the entire Baltic
Sea region during winter, while in the summer increases in precipitation are mainly
projected only for the northern half of the basin.
The models simulations concerning future sea-level rise are still uncertain
although the high-end scenarios project from 0.6 to 1.1 m sea-level rise for the next
century for the Baltic Sea.
66
B. Szymczycha