The average annual per-capita availability was 130 kg/person in 2013. A substantial
rise in per-capita availability during 2007 was due to wheat sowing campaign
launched by Provincial Governments to educate farmers about the upcoming
challenges to wheat crop and strategies to deal with them. Agriculture extension
services also played significant role to educate farmers in the adaptation of
heat-resistant varieties and modern technologies (Islam 2015).
Fluctuation in per-capita wheat grain availability in Pakistan in the recent years
was mainly due to loss in production and high population growth rate, although
support price was also a reason to some extent (Ahmad 2009). Moreover,
ever-increasing cost of inputs coupled with erratic and intensive extreme climatic
events caused low wheat productivity in the country. Sustainable production of
wheat crop ensures the food security, while escalating variability in climate
parameters threatens the production (availability) and price stability as well.
According to Ashfaq et al. (2011) climate change was a major factor in determining
wheat productivity in Pakistan, where wheat is contributing nearly 50 % of total
calories consumed by an individual per day (Zulfiqar and Hussain 2014), and this
number is higher for people residing in rural areas of Pakistan. According to
Pakistan Agriculture Research Council (PARC), per-capita annual consumption
was 125 kg in Pakistan. In order to meet country’s wheat grain requirements, there
is a dire need to exploit the frontier of knowledge, technology coupled with
improved farm management practices and robust adaptive strategies to cope up with
climate anomalies. The development of heat-resistant wheat cultivars, improving
the existing production technologies, may lead to decrease the risk in wheat production and ensure the availability of wheat to meet the national requirements.
4 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
Current study is an organized attempt to estimate the variability in climatic
parameters and identify the associated risks in wheat production, which may ultimately disrupt the food security pattern in Pakistan. We followed latitudinal classification of Pakistan and exposed significant variation in climatic parameters
according to latitude across the zones. We used district-level data for the analysis,
having large area under cultivation, from each of the five zones. We found negative
variation in temperature while positive variation in precipitation during
wheat-growing season for all districts (Zones). Our results suggest that the range of
variation may be outsized by each passing year in the country. Large negative
variation in temperature was found in District Sukkur (Zone-C) and Banazir Abad
(Zone-E) among all districts. On the other hand, district Mardan (Zone-A) faced the
highest positive variation for precipitation, while district Sialkot (Zone-B) was at
top second in terms of variation in precipitation. As per growth stages of wheat
season, negative variation was found in temperature during flowering and harvesting stage, whereas very high positive variation in precipitation during harvesting stage for district Mardan and Sialkot in Zone-A and Zone-B, respectively.
56
M.H. Abdullah et al.
rise in per-capita availability during 2007 was due to wheat sowing campaign
launched by Provincial Governments to educate farmers about the upcoming
challenges to wheat crop and strategies to deal with them. Agriculture extension
services also played significant role to educate farmers in the adaptation of
heat-resistant varieties and modern technologies (Islam 2015).
Fluctuation in per-capita wheat grain availability in Pakistan in the recent years
was mainly due to loss in production and high population growth rate, although
support price was also a reason to some extent (Ahmad 2009). Moreover,
ever-increasing cost of inputs coupled with erratic and intensive extreme climatic
events caused low wheat productivity in the country. Sustainable production of
wheat crop ensures the food security, while escalating variability in climate
parameters threatens the production (availability) and price stability as well.
According to Ashfaq et al. (2011) climate change was a major factor in determining
wheat productivity in Pakistan, where wheat is contributing nearly 50 % of total
calories consumed by an individual per day (Zulfiqar and Hussain 2014), and this
number is higher for people residing in rural areas of Pakistan. According to
Pakistan Agriculture Research Council (PARC), per-capita annual consumption
was 125 kg in Pakistan. In order to meet country’s wheat grain requirements, there
is a dire need to exploit the frontier of knowledge, technology coupled with
improved farm management practices and robust adaptive strategies to cope up with
climate anomalies. The development of heat-resistant wheat cultivars, improving
the existing production technologies, may lead to decrease the risk in wheat production and ensure the availability of wheat to meet the national requirements.
4 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
Current study is an organized attempt to estimate the variability in climatic
parameters and identify the associated risks in wheat production, which may ultimately disrupt the food security pattern in Pakistan. We followed latitudinal classification of Pakistan and exposed significant variation in climatic parameters
according to latitude across the zones. We used district-level data for the analysis,
having large area under cultivation, from each of the five zones. We found negative
variation in temperature while positive variation in precipitation during
wheat-growing season for all districts (Zones). Our results suggest that the range of
variation may be outsized by each passing year in the country. Large negative
variation in temperature was found in District Sukkur (Zone-C) and Banazir Abad
(Zone-E) among all districts. On the other hand, district Mardan (Zone-A) faced the
highest positive variation for precipitation, while district Sialkot (Zone-B) was at
top second in terms of variation in precipitation. As per growth stages of wheat
season, negative variation was found in temperature during flowering and harvesting stage, whereas very high positive variation in precipitation during harvesting stage for district Mardan and Sialkot in Zone-A and Zone-B, respectively.
56
M.H. Abdullah et al.