Two-step Just and Pope Production Function (1978) was employed to identify
the risk factor in wheat production. The results suggested that improved technology
(time) has significantly contributed in diminishing wheat risk. While vertical
expansion would be better than horizontal expansion, positive elasticity of risk was
found due to increase in area under cultivation. Almost all the climatic variables
used in our model influenced wheat yield significantly. Increased precipitation
during growing and flowering stage posed risk-increasing effect for wheat yield.
However, variation in temperature during growing stage caused decline in yield risk
significantly. However, an increase in risk elasticity was revealed during flowering
and harvesting stage due to variation in temperature. Moreover, variation in precipitation pattern during flowering stage triggered the risk significantly in wheat
yield.
We undertook district Sialkot (Zone-B) as base district for risk analysis and
found it highly vulnerable compared to other districts/zones, due to decline in
temperature coupled with high variation in precipitation pattern especially during
flowering and harvesting stage, while having large share in area under wheat cultivation. Mardan district was found vulnerable at top second level, while Banazir
Abad and Sukkur were less vulnerable than other districts because of less variation
in precipitation pattern. Per-capita availability of wheat is quite high, i.e. 131 kg per
person in 2013 but fluctuating with the production level because of rapid fluctuations in climatic parameters.
We inferred the following conclusions based on our empirical findings. As the
climatic variables have heterogeneous impact across the latitudes (zones) in the
country, highly significant for precipitation, improvement in production technology
of wheat and region-specific management skills can boost the wheat yield levels
which may ultimately ensure the livelihood and food security of rural masses in the
country. Furthermore, better management practices and appropriate use of inputs
(e.g. fertilizer and irrigation) by farmers would lead to a significant rise in wheat
per-capita availability.
Moreover, our findings suggest that the extension services and training programmes at farm level in order to cope with the variation in temperature and rainfall
could play pivotal role in maintaining and boosting the wheat yield levels. Vertical
expansion of extension services focusing on climate resilient crop production and
management practices may be preferred over horizontal expansion. Well-designed
adaptation strategies including development of new verities given the pattern of
region-specific climatic conditions would be important coping strategy to mitigate
the future risk in wheat crop production. Moreover, prioritizing the investment in
research and development of wheat crop farming could lead to a much better
situation and ensure food security at national level.
Climate Change, Risk and Food Security: An Analysis …
57
the risk factor in wheat production. The results suggested that improved technology
(time) has significantly contributed in diminishing wheat risk. While vertical
expansion would be better than horizontal expansion, positive elasticity of risk was
found due to increase in area under cultivation. Almost all the climatic variables
used in our model influenced wheat yield significantly. Increased precipitation
during growing and flowering stage posed risk-increasing effect for wheat yield.
However, variation in temperature during growing stage caused decline in yield risk
significantly. However, an increase in risk elasticity was revealed during flowering
and harvesting stage due to variation in temperature. Moreover, variation in precipitation pattern during flowering stage triggered the risk significantly in wheat
yield.
We undertook district Sialkot (Zone-B) as base district for risk analysis and
found it highly vulnerable compared to other districts/zones, due to decline in
temperature coupled with high variation in precipitation pattern especially during
flowering and harvesting stage, while having large share in area under wheat cultivation. Mardan district was found vulnerable at top second level, while Banazir
Abad and Sukkur were less vulnerable than other districts because of less variation
in precipitation pattern. Per-capita availability of wheat is quite high, i.e. 131 kg per
person in 2013 but fluctuating with the production level because of rapid fluctuations in climatic parameters.
We inferred the following conclusions based on our empirical findings. As the
climatic variables have heterogeneous impact across the latitudes (zones) in the
country, highly significant for precipitation, improvement in production technology
of wheat and region-specific management skills can boost the wheat yield levels
which may ultimately ensure the livelihood and food security of rural masses in the
country. Furthermore, better management practices and appropriate use of inputs
(e.g. fertilizer and irrigation) by farmers would lead to a significant rise in wheat
per-capita availability.
Moreover, our findings suggest that the extension services and training programmes at farm level in order to cope with the variation in temperature and rainfall
could play pivotal role in maintaining and boosting the wheat yield levels. Vertical
expansion of extension services focusing on climate resilient crop production and
management practices may be preferred over horizontal expansion. Well-designed
adaptation strategies including development of new verities given the pattern of
region-specific climatic conditions would be important coping strategy to mitigate
the future risk in wheat crop production. Moreover, prioritizing the investment in
research and development of wheat crop farming could lead to a much better
situation and ensure food security at national level.
Climate Change, Risk and Food Security: An Analysis …
57