Ashfaq et al. (2011) found climate change as major factor in determining wheat
productivity. Ahmad et al. (2014) and Janjua et al. (2014) assessed the impact of
climate change on mean wheat yield but did not estimated the associated risk and
linked it to food security. However, present study is an organized attempt to assess
the impact of climate change on wheat production and the associated risk and
per-capita food security level is also estimated with reference to wheat grain.
Current study is an idiosyncratic in nature and could be beneficial for all concerned
stakeholders, particularly for policy makers to define the future direction. We define
the specific objectives of our study as follows:
• Assessing the variability in climatic parameters across different zones in
Pakistan.
• Evaluating the risk in wheat production due to climate change during each
growth stage across different zones for Pakistan.
• Translating the consequences of wheat production variability on food security in
Pakistan.
• Suggesting policy measures to the stakeholders in the country based on our
empirical findings.
2 Methodological Framework
This section comprised subsections including classification of study area, selection
of variables, data collection from the source departments in Pakistan, model
specification and application of appropriate techniques to analyse the data and
estimation.
2.1 Classification of Study Area
Pakistan has been classified into five zones according to latitudinal level (Salma
et al. 2012). Poudel and Kotani (2013) revealed significant difference in climatic
variability across latitudes; hence, current study undertook such a classification. We
selected one district (administrative unit) from each zone and the selection is based
on three considerations namely (a) availability of metrological observation centre
since early 1960s, (b) having large share in wheat production and (c) declared as
district in 1984 or earlier. We used data of five major wheat-producing districts of
Pakistan over the period of 1984–2013. Mardan, Sialkot, Sukkur, Bahawalpur and
Banazir Abad are the districts selected from Zone A, B, C, D and E, respectively, as
depicted in Fig. 1.
44
M.H. Abdullah et al.
productivity. Ahmad et al. (2014) and Janjua et al. (2014) assessed the impact of
climate change on mean wheat yield but did not estimated the associated risk and
linked it to food security. However, present study is an organized attempt to assess
the impact of climate change on wheat production and the associated risk and
per-capita food security level is also estimated with reference to wheat grain.
Current study is an idiosyncratic in nature and could be beneficial for all concerned
stakeholders, particularly for policy makers to define the future direction. We define
the specific objectives of our study as follows:
• Assessing the variability in climatic parameters across different zones in
Pakistan.
• Evaluating the risk in wheat production due to climate change during each
growth stage across different zones for Pakistan.
• Translating the consequences of wheat production variability on food security in
Pakistan.
• Suggesting policy measures to the stakeholders in the country based on our
empirical findings.
2 Methodological Framework
This section comprised subsections including classification of study area, selection
of variables, data collection from the source departments in Pakistan, model
specification and application of appropriate techniques to analyse the data and
estimation.
2.1 Classification of Study Area
Pakistan has been classified into five zones according to latitudinal level (Salma
et al. 2012). Poudel and Kotani (2013) revealed significant difference in climatic
variability across latitudes; hence, current study undertook such a classification. We
selected one district (administrative unit) from each zone and the selection is based
on three considerations namely (a) availability of metrological observation centre
since early 1960s, (b) having large share in wheat production and (c) declared as
district in 1984 or earlier. We used data of five major wheat-producing districts of
Pakistan over the period of 1984–2013. Mardan, Sialkot, Sukkur, Bahawalpur and
Banazir Abad are the districts selected from Zone A, B, C, D and E, respectively, as
depicted in Fig. 1.
44
M.H. Abdullah et al.