parameters leads to extreme events having adverse consequences for agriculture
production and ultimately food security. Unfortunately, the frequency and intensity
of extreme weather events in the country has increased from the beginning of
current century ranking it among (top ten) vulnerable countries in the world (GOP
2015). Pakistan’s economy is mainly based on agriculture sector having a large
share in country’s GDP (21 %) and it provides employment to 43.5 % of the
country’s labour force (GOP 2015). Despite agriculture sector is of critical
importance to growth, rural household income and food security, it has been facing
continuous decline in production due to variabilities in climate (Khan 2015). It is an
alarming situation that 61 % of the country’s population is food insecure, 80 out of
131 districts are facing food insecurity (SDPI 2003), while 22 districts of
Baluchistan Province are severely food insecure (SDPI 2009). Furthermore, almost
50 % of the population does not have access to adequate food supply to fulfil their
daily dietary needs for healthy life (WFP 2009). In 2014, Sustainable Development
Policy Institute (SDPI) stated in policy brief that 103 districts are food deficient and
only 10 districts were sufficient in food availability and food availability is the first
pillar to food security. Unavailability of food in different regions may increase in
future due to decline in agriculture production, rise in input prices and possible
adverse effects of climate change.
It is not an exaggeration to say that wheat crop is the core one staple food crop,
which delivers major energy requirement of human diet across the world. Global
wheat production is more than 600 t annually and ranked as third largest growing
crop (Asseng et al. 2011) and one-third of all grains trade accounts for wheat
globally (Sharma et al. 2015). Pakistan is placed at sixth position in wheat production across the world, while contributes 3.5 % into the global wheat production.
The yield of wheat in Pakistan is 32 % of its potential, which is quite low, yet the
country stands at 59th position in terms of wheat yield per unit of land globally
(Zulfiqar and Hussain 2014). Wheat serves as staple crop in Pakistan, providing
48 % caloric needs (SDPI 2003), though its share is even higher for rural households. It is grown at 9039 thousand hectares in the country, with a share of 10 % in
agricultural value addition and contributes 2.1 % to the national GDP (GOP 2015).
Wheat straw is also used as forage to feed livestock, which has large share in
agriculture value addition, i.e. 56.3 %. It is an established fact that self-sufficiency
in wheat means self-sufficiency in food for Pakistan (Ahmad 2009).
Given the importance of wheat crop, we find it imperative to quantify the
variations in climatic indicators, which are threatening the food production, security
and livelihood sustainability of the masses in Pakistan. International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI) estimated up to 30 % decline in irrigated wheat yields
and almost 90 % increase in price level in 2050 in developing countries, Pakistan is
one of them. To the best of our knowledge, current study is a very first attempt for
Pakistan to assess food security linked with climate change and risk in wheat
productivity. Zulfiqar and Hussain (2014) estimated the wheat production gap to
evaluate the food security without taking climate change in account, while
Climate Change, Risk and Food Security: An Analysis …
43
production and ultimately food security. Unfortunately, the frequency and intensity
of extreme weather events in the country has increased from the beginning of
current century ranking it among (top ten) vulnerable countries in the world (GOP
2015). Pakistan’s economy is mainly based on agriculture sector having a large
share in country’s GDP (21 %) and it provides employment to 43.5 % of the
country’s labour force (GOP 2015). Despite agriculture sector is of critical
importance to growth, rural household income and food security, it has been facing
continuous decline in production due to variabilities in climate (Khan 2015). It is an
alarming situation that 61 % of the country’s population is food insecure, 80 out of
131 districts are facing food insecurity (SDPI 2003), while 22 districts of
Baluchistan Province are severely food insecure (SDPI 2009). Furthermore, almost
50 % of the population does not have access to adequate food supply to fulfil their
daily dietary needs for healthy life (WFP 2009). In 2014, Sustainable Development
Policy Institute (SDPI) stated in policy brief that 103 districts are food deficient and
only 10 districts were sufficient in food availability and food availability is the first
pillar to food security. Unavailability of food in different regions may increase in
future due to decline in agriculture production, rise in input prices and possible
adverse effects of climate change.
It is not an exaggeration to say that wheat crop is the core one staple food crop,
which delivers major energy requirement of human diet across the world. Global
wheat production is more than 600 t annually and ranked as third largest growing
crop (Asseng et al. 2011) and one-third of all grains trade accounts for wheat
globally (Sharma et al. 2015). Pakistan is placed at sixth position in wheat production across the world, while contributes 3.5 % into the global wheat production.
The yield of wheat in Pakistan is 32 % of its potential, which is quite low, yet the
country stands at 59th position in terms of wheat yield per unit of land globally
(Zulfiqar and Hussain 2014). Wheat serves as staple crop in Pakistan, providing
48 % caloric needs (SDPI 2003), though its share is even higher for rural households. It is grown at 9039 thousand hectares in the country, with a share of 10 % in
agricultural value addition and contributes 2.1 % to the national GDP (GOP 2015).
Wheat straw is also used as forage to feed livestock, which has large share in
agriculture value addition, i.e. 56.3 %. It is an established fact that self-sufficiency
in wheat means self-sufficiency in food for Pakistan (Ahmad 2009).
Given the importance of wheat crop, we find it imperative to quantify the
variations in climatic indicators, which are threatening the food production, security
and livelihood sustainability of the masses in Pakistan. International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI) estimated up to 30 % decline in irrigated wheat yields
and almost 90 % increase in price level in 2050 in developing countries, Pakistan is
one of them. To the best of our knowledge, current study is a very first attempt for
Pakistan to assess food security linked with climate change and risk in wheat
productivity. Zulfiqar and Hussain (2014) estimated the wheat production gap to
evaluate the food security without taking climate change in account, while
Climate Change, Risk and Food Security: An Analysis …
43