we will, therefore, have to fall back on the executive summaries provided, and refer
to published independent critiques to bring in some element of critical
understanding.
Let us, then, take a look at one such document: Climate Change 2014. Impacts,
Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers, (IPCC 2014a, b, c),
which is the Working Group II contribution to AR5 (at https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/
images/uploads/WG2AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf, accessed on 25 May 2015). The claim
is made in this document that climate change effects are becoming distinguishable
from other influences or causes in recent decades: changing precipitation, (accelerated) melting of snow and ice affecting water resources, shrinking of glaciers,
permafrost warming and thawing, shifting geographical ranges of many terrestrial
and aquatic species and a few recent species extinctions (op. cit., p. 4). Negative
impacts on crop yields have been more common than positive, although some gains
have also been studied in high-latitude regions (ibid.). What can be said, with a high
level of confidence, is that “it is not yet clear whether the balance of impacts has been
negative or positive” (p. 5). However, they do ascribe recent periods of “rapid food
and cereal price increases” in key producing regions to climate extremes; as also
“increased heat-related mortality and decreased cold-related mortality in some
regions as a result of warming” (op. cit., p. 6). Marginalized, poor people are
adjudged (not surprisingly) as more vulnerable to climate change, “and also to some
adaptation and mitigation responses”. Impacts are considerable even from recent
climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones and wildfires, showing a “significant vulnerability” and “significant lack of preparedness” to
current climate variability, in some sectors (ibid.).
A possible source of relief for us in India is that the WG2 report ascribes only
“minor” contribution of climate change (medium confidence level) to food production in the subcontinent (Figure SPM.2, p. 7). A previous report Turn Down the
Heat of the World Bank (2013), which was released even as devastating floods were
wreaking havoc in Uttarakhand state in June 2013, suggested that South Asia would
be especially impacted by climate change as the world atmosphere warms up from
the present level of 0.8 °C to say 4 °C above pre-industrial times by 2100, with sea
levels rising by over 100 cm, monsoon rains becoming more variable, while floods
(and droughts) would be more frequent and damaging (Balasubramanian and Dilip
Kumar 2014). Kolkata is suggested to be among the 10 most exposed cities to
flooding, and a significant reduction in crop yields is to be expected due to extreme
heat by the 2040s. Reduced water availability due to changes in precipitation levels
and falling ground water tables are likely to aggravate the situation. The worst
effects, it was suggested in the report, could be avoided by holding global warming
below 2 °C (above pre-industrial times) (ibid.).
We need not cover the climate change prognostications in any further detail here,
because the material is available everywhere at whatever level of expertise is
required. However, a few considerations come up immediately to the discerning
observer. One is, of course, what is the rigour of these exercises: are these prognoses just guesses, or are they based on specific cause and effect models or formulae. Can we take them on face value, as actual predictions rather than just
Climate Change Strategies and Developing Nations …
27
to published independent critiques to bring in some element of critical
understanding.
Let us, then, take a look at one such document: Climate Change 2014. Impacts,
Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers, (IPCC 2014a, b, c),
which is the Working Group II contribution to AR5 (at https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/
images/uploads/WG2AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf, accessed on 25 May 2015). The claim
is made in this document that climate change effects are becoming distinguishable
from other influences or causes in recent decades: changing precipitation, (accelerated) melting of snow and ice affecting water resources, shrinking of glaciers,
permafrost warming and thawing, shifting geographical ranges of many terrestrial
and aquatic species and a few recent species extinctions (op. cit., p. 4). Negative
impacts on crop yields have been more common than positive, although some gains
have also been studied in high-latitude regions (ibid.). What can be said, with a high
level of confidence, is that “it is not yet clear whether the balance of impacts has been
negative or positive” (p. 5). However, they do ascribe recent periods of “rapid food
and cereal price increases” in key producing regions to climate extremes; as also
“increased heat-related mortality and decreased cold-related mortality in some
regions as a result of warming” (op. cit., p. 6). Marginalized, poor people are
adjudged (not surprisingly) as more vulnerable to climate change, “and also to some
adaptation and mitigation responses”. Impacts are considerable even from recent
climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones and wildfires, showing a “significant vulnerability” and “significant lack of preparedness” to
current climate variability, in some sectors (ibid.).
A possible source of relief for us in India is that the WG2 report ascribes only
“minor” contribution of climate change (medium confidence level) to food production in the subcontinent (Figure SPM.2, p. 7). A previous report Turn Down the
Heat of the World Bank (2013), which was released even as devastating floods were
wreaking havoc in Uttarakhand state in June 2013, suggested that South Asia would
be especially impacted by climate change as the world atmosphere warms up from
the present level of 0.8 °C to say 4 °C above pre-industrial times by 2100, with sea
levels rising by over 100 cm, monsoon rains becoming more variable, while floods
(and droughts) would be more frequent and damaging (Balasubramanian and Dilip
Kumar 2014). Kolkata is suggested to be among the 10 most exposed cities to
flooding, and a significant reduction in crop yields is to be expected due to extreme
heat by the 2040s. Reduced water availability due to changes in precipitation levels
and falling ground water tables are likely to aggravate the situation. The worst
effects, it was suggested in the report, could be avoided by holding global warming
below 2 °C (above pre-industrial times) (ibid.).
We need not cover the climate change prognostications in any further detail here,
because the material is available everywhere at whatever level of expertise is
required. However, a few considerations come up immediately to the discerning
observer. One is, of course, what is the rigour of these exercises: are these prognoses just guesses, or are they based on specific cause and effect models or formulae. Can we take them on face value, as actual predictions rather than just
Climate Change Strategies and Developing Nations …
27