resources, especially fossil fuels and minerals), and a high total contribution to
global pollution (because of the huge population). While a developing country has
to be mindful of the global effects of its increasing consumption, it also has to make
a dispassionate calculation of what effect any sacrifices in current consumption will
have on the global trends and global climate change scenario. It appears that any
sacrifice by India at the current low levels of per capita consumption will have
negligible impact on the global trends, whereas it will cause economic distress
within the country, for example to the poor who are yet to achieve reasonable
standards of consumption. In such a situation, as per the logic of collective action,
the sensible choice would be to make the minimum contribution to the collective
good while maximizing private (here read country) returns. In order to make wise
choices that do not result in more poverty in the name of development, we may
have to devise and apply more sensible measures of well-being, rather than blindly
following the high-consumption paths of the developed world.
1 Introduction: The Climate Change Prognoses
The world’s climate is like a global commons; a large number of countries, and
billions of individuals, are doing things that are affecting the world climate in
unexpected, and unpleasant, ways. This of course is only the latest addition to various
other global commons that are known to be under unprecedented pressure, such as
the air and water quality, the environment in general (especially the load of chemicals), the soil and vegetation (the erosion of land and forest resources), the natural
habitats (forests, wetlands, grasslands, arid lands and wild areas in general), the
world’s stock of species (biodiversity) and so on. In more philanthropic spheres, there
is the gradual erosion and impoverishment of traditional cultures and societies, with
the consequent erosion of languages, local knowledge, art, culture, oral histories and
literature, religions and so on. These effects are all traced back to the global adoption
of western economic and technological models of development, coupled with a
gradual homogenization of cultures and mores that have amounted to a second wave
of domination over the less developed third world after the winding up of the imperial
project of the last couple of centuries of the European powers.
Ever since the global environment has become a subject of study, discussion and
action in the world forums, it is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) that has been the main source of our understanding of climate change issues
and our main guide to policy. It would be instructive, therefore, to take a brief look
at the IPCC reports before going on to analysis of our options. The latest tranche is
the Fifth Assessment Report, AR5, 2014, and naturally it has generated a plethora
of documents by a large number of authors and drafters, that are available on the
internet (thankfully they do not have to cut down too many trees to reach them to us
nowadays, but on the other hand, the relatively negligible incremental cost of
publishing encourages enormous output!). It therefore becomes difficult for any one
individual to access all of these documents, let alone understand or analyze them;
26
P.J. Dilip Kumar
global pollution (because of the huge population). While a developing country has
to be mindful of the global effects of its increasing consumption, it also has to make
a dispassionate calculation of what effect any sacrifices in current consumption will
have on the global trends and global climate change scenario. It appears that any
sacrifice by India at the current low levels of per capita consumption will have
negligible impact on the global trends, whereas it will cause economic distress
within the country, for example to the poor who are yet to achieve reasonable
standards of consumption. In such a situation, as per the logic of collective action,
the sensible choice would be to make the minimum contribution to the collective
good while maximizing private (here read country) returns. In order to make wise
choices that do not result in more poverty in the name of development, we may
have to devise and apply more sensible measures of well-being, rather than blindly
following the high-consumption paths of the developed world.
1 Introduction: The Climate Change Prognoses
The world’s climate is like a global commons; a large number of countries, and
billions of individuals, are doing things that are affecting the world climate in
unexpected, and unpleasant, ways. This of course is only the latest addition to various
other global commons that are known to be under unprecedented pressure, such as
the air and water quality, the environment in general (especially the load of chemicals), the soil and vegetation (the erosion of land and forest resources), the natural
habitats (forests, wetlands, grasslands, arid lands and wild areas in general), the
world’s stock of species (biodiversity) and so on. In more philanthropic spheres, there
is the gradual erosion and impoverishment of traditional cultures and societies, with
the consequent erosion of languages, local knowledge, art, culture, oral histories and
literature, religions and so on. These effects are all traced back to the global adoption
of western economic and technological models of development, coupled with a
gradual homogenization of cultures and mores that have amounted to a second wave
of domination over the less developed third world after the winding up of the imperial
project of the last couple of centuries of the European powers.
Ever since the global environment has become a subject of study, discussion and
action in the world forums, it is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) that has been the main source of our understanding of climate change issues
and our main guide to policy. It would be instructive, therefore, to take a brief look
at the IPCC reports before going on to analysis of our options. The latest tranche is
the Fifth Assessment Report, AR5, 2014, and naturally it has generated a plethora
of documents by a large number of authors and drafters, that are available on the
internet (thankfully they do not have to cut down too many trees to reach them to us
nowadays, but on the other hand, the relatively negligible incremental cost of
publishing encourages enormous output!). It therefore becomes difficult for any one
individual to access all of these documents, let alone understand or analyze them;
26
P.J. Dilip Kumar