alternative scenarios? Second, what will be the likely actual rise in global temperatures due to human activities, especially the addition of carbon due to a greater
burning of fossil fuels as the third world countries seek to increase their production
levels? Third, what will be the efficacy of the mitigative (and adaptive) measures
usually suggested (e.g. limiting the additions of each nation’s future carbon contributions, investing in additional carbon-absorbing measures like new forests), and
how would these measures relate to the quest for better standards of living and
higher incomes in the poorer countries of the world? Finally, what should be the
policy to be adopted by India (and other developing countries with large numbers of
poor), that will balance the needs of growth and development in the immediate
future, and the justifiable demands of the world at large, and of future generations of
our own countries, to a fair and equitable share of the world’s resources, which
include the global climate commons?
Turning to the first issue, that of the dependability of the prognoses, the problem
is that there is a wide range in the predictions according to different assumptions or
scenarios. The IPCC reports ascribe different levels of confidence in a somewhat
misleading way, because the words “high confidence” are often juxtaposed to these
projections or to the impacts of mitigative and adaptive measures, whereas they
usually refer to phrases in the earlier parts of the respective paragraphs that refer to
other aspects, not the measures themselves. A simple example is this one on p. 9 of
the WG2 summary (IPCC 2014a):
Responding to climate-related risks involves decision-making in a changing world,
with continuing uncertainty about the severity and timing of climate change impacts
and with limits to the effectiveness of adaptation (high confidence). (emphasis in
original)
This sentence suggests, to an unwary reader who is skimming the text, that there
is a high confidence in the severity and timing of climate change impacts, and in
high effectiveness of adaptation, whereas the text actually suggests the exact
opposite: there is high confidence in the continuing uncertainty of impacts and in
the limits to the effectiveness of adaptation. From the accompanying figures, it
appears that there will be warming almost everywhere, except a few patches in the
north Atlantic where the moderate cooling effect is, however, “not statistically
significant”. What we are given to understand is that the projections which range
from say 1 to 4 °C (above pre-industrial times) by 2100, are based on a combination
of diverse sources:
…empirical observations, experimental results, process-based understanding, statistical
approaches, and simulation and descriptive models. Future risks related to climate change
vary substantially across plausible alternative development pathways, and the relative
importance of development and climate change varies by sector, region, and time period
(high confidence). Scenarios are useful tools for characterizing possible future socioeconomic pathways, climate change and its risks, and policy implications. … Uncertainties
about future vulnerability, exposure, and responses of interlinked human and natural
systems are large (high confidence). (Op. cit., p. 11, emphasis in original)
28
P.J. Dilip Kumar
burning of fossil fuels as the third world countries seek to increase their production
levels? Third, what will be the efficacy of the mitigative (and adaptive) measures
usually suggested (e.g. limiting the additions of each nation’s future carbon contributions, investing in additional carbon-absorbing measures like new forests), and
how would these measures relate to the quest for better standards of living and
higher incomes in the poorer countries of the world? Finally, what should be the
policy to be adopted by India (and other developing countries with large numbers of
poor), that will balance the needs of growth and development in the immediate
future, and the justifiable demands of the world at large, and of future generations of
our own countries, to a fair and equitable share of the world’s resources, which
include the global climate commons?
Turning to the first issue, that of the dependability of the prognoses, the problem
is that there is a wide range in the predictions according to different assumptions or
scenarios. The IPCC reports ascribe different levels of confidence in a somewhat
misleading way, because the words “high confidence” are often juxtaposed to these
projections or to the impacts of mitigative and adaptive measures, whereas they
usually refer to phrases in the earlier parts of the respective paragraphs that refer to
other aspects, not the measures themselves. A simple example is this one on p. 9 of
the WG2 summary (IPCC 2014a):
Responding to climate-related risks involves decision-making in a changing world,
with continuing uncertainty about the severity and timing of climate change impacts
and with limits to the effectiveness of adaptation (high confidence). (emphasis in
original)
This sentence suggests, to an unwary reader who is skimming the text, that there
is a high confidence in the severity and timing of climate change impacts, and in
high effectiveness of adaptation, whereas the text actually suggests the exact
opposite: there is high confidence in the continuing uncertainty of impacts and in
the limits to the effectiveness of adaptation. From the accompanying figures, it
appears that there will be warming almost everywhere, except a few patches in the
north Atlantic where the moderate cooling effect is, however, “not statistically
significant”. What we are given to understand is that the projections which range
from say 1 to 4 °C (above pre-industrial times) by 2100, are based on a combination
of diverse sources:
…empirical observations, experimental results, process-based understanding, statistical
approaches, and simulation and descriptive models. Future risks related to climate change
vary substantially across plausible alternative development pathways, and the relative
importance of development and climate change varies by sector, region, and time period
(high confidence). Scenarios are useful tools for characterizing possible future socioeconomic pathways, climate change and its risks, and policy implications. … Uncertainties
about future vulnerability, exposure, and responses of interlinked human and natural
systems are large (high confidence). (Op. cit., p. 11, emphasis in original)
28
P.J. Dilip Kumar