indicator of skills which contribute to better agricultural practices and increase
agricultural output.
Road length has a negative impact (in both the specifications) on agricultural
output, which is contrary to expectation. It is possible that given the poor state of
roads, agricultural output is negatively impacted. However, there was not adequate
data for us to determine the quality of roads. Coastal areas have less agricultural
output per capita, when compared with inland districts, to the extent of nearly `1300
per capita (in the specification without rainfall), much less (a reduction of `989 per
capita in coastal districts) when rainfall is included. This might be due to the salinity
of the soil in coastal areas. It is also possible that warmer temperatures could
increase the number of forest fires and outbreaks of pests (http://www.epa.gov/
climatechange/impacts-adaptation/southeast.html) which could adversely impact
agricultural production.
7 Summary and Policy Implications
We started off by noting that the existing literature does not estimate the economic
impacts of climate change in India’s cities, which contribute significantly to global
warming due to their associated effects such as polluting transport, greater deforestation, lesser rainfall, or nature of industry. The literature has also not taken into
account the effects of climate change in the especially vulnerable coastal or riverine
locations. While a large number of recent studies in this area focus on modeling
approaches, this paper makes an attempt to empirically quantify the impact climate
change has on economic (both agricultural and nonagricultural) output in India’s
cities, using novel methodological techniques used in the past literature in the
context of other countries such as the United States.
Making an attempt to examine these questions, I find that overall, climate change
thus far has impacted India’s cities economically. When we take into account
nonagricultural output of districts (which are close approximations of cities) per
capita, climate change indicators such as rainfall positively impact nonagricultural
output. This could be possibly due to the positive impact rainfall has on agricultural
output, and the multiplier effects agriculture has on consumer confidence and
nonagricultural output, in the context of developing cities. Extreme temperature
differences have a positive impact on nonagricultural output per capita, this could
be because when there are extreme temperatures, resources move to nonagricultural
uses. Coastal districts have higher levels of non-primary output per capita, to the
extent of Rs. 15,200, when compared with their inland counterparts, which may
certainly be attributed to the fact that coastal cities are always ahead of others in
terms of their economic growth due to their exposure to and proximity to markets,
when compared with inland districts. China’s Special Economic Zones are designated based on this assumption.
When we examine the impact of climate change on agricultural output, here are
our observations in summary: when both climate change indicators—rainfall and
292
K.S. Sridhar
agricultural output.
Road length has a negative impact (in both the specifications) on agricultural
output, which is contrary to expectation. It is possible that given the poor state of
roads, agricultural output is negatively impacted. However, there was not adequate
data for us to determine the quality of roads. Coastal areas have less agricultural
output per capita, when compared with inland districts, to the extent of nearly `1300
per capita (in the specification without rainfall), much less (a reduction of `989 per
capita in coastal districts) when rainfall is included. This might be due to the salinity
of the soil in coastal areas. It is also possible that warmer temperatures could
increase the number of forest fires and outbreaks of pests (http://www.epa.gov/
climatechange/impacts-adaptation/southeast.html) which could adversely impact
agricultural production.
7 Summary and Policy Implications
We started off by noting that the existing literature does not estimate the economic
impacts of climate change in India’s cities, which contribute significantly to global
warming due to their associated effects such as polluting transport, greater deforestation, lesser rainfall, or nature of industry. The literature has also not taken into
account the effects of climate change in the especially vulnerable coastal or riverine
locations. While a large number of recent studies in this area focus on modeling
approaches, this paper makes an attempt to empirically quantify the impact climate
change has on economic (both agricultural and nonagricultural) output in India’s
cities, using novel methodological techniques used in the past literature in the
context of other countries such as the United States.
Making an attempt to examine these questions, I find that overall, climate change
thus far has impacted India’s cities economically. When we take into account
nonagricultural output of districts (which are close approximations of cities) per
capita, climate change indicators such as rainfall positively impact nonagricultural
output. This could be possibly due to the positive impact rainfall has on agricultural
output, and the multiplier effects agriculture has on consumer confidence and
nonagricultural output, in the context of developing cities. Extreme temperature
differences have a positive impact on nonagricultural output per capita, this could
be because when there are extreme temperatures, resources move to nonagricultural
uses. Coastal districts have higher levels of non-primary output per capita, to the
extent of Rs. 15,200, when compared with their inland counterparts, which may
certainly be attributed to the fact that coastal cities are always ahead of others in
terms of their economic growth due to their exposure to and proximity to markets,
when compared with inland districts. China’s Special Economic Zones are designated based on this assumption.
When we examine the impact of climate change on agricultural output, here are
our observations in summary: when both climate change indicators—rainfall and
292
K.S. Sridhar