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en
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ill
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,.GFDL
; ' • • MPI 'OPYC'
MPI "LSG"
-1+ ..... ....,-..... - ..... ....,. ..... .,......,.-.,.......,-'"'1"""'1
5
15
25
35
o
YEAR
Figure 6: Decadal mean changes in globally averaged surfaced temperature (OC), in various coupled ocean-atmosphere experiments used in transient climate change integration
in accordance with the IPCC Scenario A, "Business as usual". This corresponds approximately to an annual increase of the atmospheric C02 concentrations of 1 %. Note that the
scenarios employed differ from model to model, and that the effect of temperature drift
in the control simulation has been removed. GFDL (Manabe et al., 1991), MPI OPYC
(Lunkeit, 1993), MPI LSG (Cubasch et al., 1992), UKMO (Murphy and Mitchell, 1995),
NCAR (Washington and Meehl, 1991). Modified figure and caption from IPCC, 1992.
nisms in and between atmosphere, ocean, land and the cryosphere must
be consistently parameterized with particular emphasis on minimizing systematic errors. During the last years the modelling emphasis has been on
transient time-dependent climate change experiments in which the evolution of the climate response to a gradual change in the greenhouse gases is
examined. The transient-response experiments provide a more physically
realistic framework for evaluating climate change than so- called equilibrium model simulations common in previous climate change studies. The
transient-response experiments require long integrations with comprehensive 3-dimensional fully coupled global climate models and hence are computationally very demanding.
Transient simulations with coupled climate models (IPCC, 1992) in
which, however, neither aerosols nor ozone changes have been included,
suggest a warming rate of 0.3°C per decade (Fig. 6). These values are
approximately 60% of the model's equilibrium warming (where known)
with double CO2 when run with simple mixed-layer oceans. These models
have been integrated from present to the end of the last century assuming
en
a:
ill
II:
:::>
t(
II:
ill
0::E
ill
I4
3
2
o
305
,.GFDL
; ' • • MPI 'OPYC'
MPI "LSG"
-1+ ..... ....,-..... - ..... ....,. ..... .,......,.-.,.......,-'"'1"""'1
5
15
25
35
o
YEAR
Figure 6: Decadal mean changes in globally averaged surfaced temperature (OC), in various coupled ocean-atmosphere experiments used in transient climate change integration
in accordance with the IPCC Scenario A, "Business as usual". This corresponds approximately to an annual increase of the atmospheric C02 concentrations of 1 %. Note that the
scenarios employed differ from model to model, and that the effect of temperature drift
in the control simulation has been removed. GFDL (Manabe et al., 1991), MPI OPYC
(Lunkeit, 1993), MPI LSG (Cubasch et al., 1992), UKMO (Murphy and Mitchell, 1995),
NCAR (Washington and Meehl, 1991). Modified figure and caption from IPCC, 1992.
nisms in and between atmosphere, ocean, land and the cryosphere must
be consistently parameterized with particular emphasis on minimizing systematic errors. During the last years the modelling emphasis has been on
transient time-dependent climate change experiments in which the evolution of the climate response to a gradual change in the greenhouse gases is
examined. The transient-response experiments provide a more physically
realistic framework for evaluating climate change than so- called equilibrium model simulations common in previous climate change studies. The
transient-response experiments require long integrations with comprehensive 3-dimensional fully coupled global climate models and hence are computationally very demanding.
Transient simulations with coupled climate models (IPCC, 1992) in
which, however, neither aerosols nor ozone changes have been included,
suggest a warming rate of 0.3°C per decade (Fig. 6). These values are
approximately 60% of the model's equilibrium warming (where known)
with double CO2 when run with simple mixed-layer oceans. These models
have been integrated from present to the end of the last century assuming