THE CLIMATE RESPONSE TO THE CHANGING GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE
LENNART BENGTSSON
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Hamburg, FRG
Contents
1 Introduction
2 Basic energy processes of the climate system
3 Climate change mechanisms
3.1 Changes in the solar radiation.
3.2 Changes in the greenhouse gases
3.3 Changes in atmospheric aerosols
3.4 Internal, natural variations ..
4 Modelling climate change
4.1 Atmosphere and land surface.
4.2 Ocean and sea ice.
4.3 The coupling . . . . . .
5 Climate change scenarios
5.1 Short wave radiation .
5.2 Long wave radiation .
5.3 Heat fluxes . . . . . .
5.4 The hydrological cycle
5.5 Temperature changes .
6 Concluding remarks
1 Introduction
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The question whether climate changes, on timescales shorter than say several thousand years, at all can take place has not until comparatively recently been carefully considered. The question is related to the accelerating increase in the so-called greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide and CFCs and to what extent and how fast this increase is
likely to lead to climate changes. It is indeed of considerable interest that
a few gases, preferably water vapour and carbon dioxide which exist in
quite small concentrations, carbon dioxide only little more than 0.03%, are
NATO ASI Series, Vol. 144
Decadai Climate Variability
Dynamics and Predictability
Edited by David L. T.Anderson and Jiirgen Willebrand
© Springer·Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1996