230
beneath Jordan’s border with Saudi Arabia accounts for 8 % of overall supply,
2 but
the two states have no accord. Inevitably, absent treaty- based or more formal agreement, inadequate water governance fuels bilateral suspicions.
The question arises whether this modus vivendi on water use is sustainable.
According to the World Bank, the Middle East is especially vulnerable to climate
change (World Bank 2007 ). With average temperatures expected to rise and precipitation levels to decline, Jordan’s freshwater availability is projected to fall by 15 %
by 2020 (SFG 2011 , p. 92). Climate change-induced water stress, impacting agriculture, economic growth, health and food security, could potentially excite unrest
and fuel tensions over water with neighbours.
2 Disi resources have been used since the early 1980s for municipal and industry purposes in Aqaba
and later for agriculture; since 2013 100 × 10
6 m
3
/year have been pumped to supply Amman.
2015
2020
2025
Projected demand
1,229
1,398
1,559
Supply (safe yield/projects)
929
929
929
Deficit
300
469
630
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Supply and Demand Projections 2015–2025 (10
6 m
3 )
Volume [10
6
m
3
]
Fig. 15.2 Author’s summary of supply (safe yield/projects underway) and demand projections,
2015–2025 (10
6 m
3
) (Source: Cited in Yorke ( 2013 , pp. 28–29). Based on MWI (Jordan Ministry
of Water and Irrigation) ( 2012 )). Notes: Overall supply of 929 × 10
6 m
3 to 2025 comprises (1)
sustainable supply calculated at 776 × 10
6 m
3 (total supplies of 892 × 10
6 m
3 in 2010 minus over
abstraction of 76 × 10
6 m
3 minus 40 × 10
6 m
3 irrigation use of Disi resources); (2) new water supply:
Disi-Amman conveyor (100 × 10
6 m
3 /year), As Samra Wastewater Plant Extension (45 × 10
6 m
3 /
year), Kufranjah dam (5 × 10
6 m
3 /year), small wastewater plants (3 × 10
6 m
3
/year). Projections
exclude a possible 100 × 10
6 m
3 desalination plant near Aqaba and supply side effi ciency projects.
Demand projections are based on MWI statistics
V. Yorke
beneath Jordan’s border with Saudi Arabia accounts for 8 % of overall supply,
2 but
the two states have no accord. Inevitably, absent treaty- based or more formal agreement, inadequate water governance fuels bilateral suspicions.
The question arises whether this modus vivendi on water use is sustainable.
According to the World Bank, the Middle East is especially vulnerable to climate
change (World Bank 2007 ). With average temperatures expected to rise and precipitation levels to decline, Jordan’s freshwater availability is projected to fall by 15 %
by 2020 (SFG 2011 , p. 92). Climate change-induced water stress, impacting agriculture, economic growth, health and food security, could potentially excite unrest
and fuel tensions over water with neighbours.
2 Disi resources have been used since the early 1980s for municipal and industry purposes in Aqaba
and later for agriculture; since 2013 100 × 10
6 m
3
/year have been pumped to supply Amman.
2015
2020
2025
Projected demand
1,229
1,398
1,559
Supply (safe yield/projects)
929
929
929
Deficit
300
469
630
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Supply and Demand Projections 2015–2025 (10
6 m
3 )
Volume [10
6
m
3
]
Fig. 15.2 Author’s summary of supply (safe yield/projects underway) and demand projections,
2015–2025 (10
6 m
3
) (Source: Cited in Yorke ( 2013 , pp. 28–29). Based on MWI (Jordan Ministry
of Water and Irrigation) ( 2012 )). Notes: Overall supply of 929 × 10
6 m
3 to 2025 comprises (1)
sustainable supply calculated at 776 × 10
6 m
3 (total supplies of 892 × 10
6 m
3 in 2010 minus over
abstraction of 76 × 10
6 m
3 minus 40 × 10
6 m
3 irrigation use of Disi resources); (2) new water supply:
Disi-Amman conveyor (100 × 10
6 m
3 /year), As Samra Wastewater Plant Extension (45 × 10
6 m
3 /
year), Kufranjah dam (5 × 10
6 m
3 /year), small wastewater plants (3 × 10
6 m
3
/year). Projections
exclude a possible 100 × 10
6 m
3 desalination plant near Aqaba and supply side effi ciency projects.
Demand projections are based on MWI statistics
V. Yorke