to 1971–2000 show a steady rise of the summer temperature of 1.5
C in the
northern parts of Germany and Poland and up to 3
C in Southeast Europe. For
the winter months the projected increase is the highest in the north-eastern region
(~3
C) and lowest in the western parts of Central Europe (~1.8
C). Thereby, the
spread of the model projections for temperature is high in the summer months,
especially in the southern parts of Central Europe with a coefficient of variation up
to 50 % (not shown).
For all of Central and Eastern Europe a clear temperature rise is visible for the
future which is projected to become more distinct at the end of the century. A
general pattern is that the projected increase of temperature is highest during
summer and lower during winter. For most areas, a comparison of the projections
shows a high uncertainty range, especially during summer. The range of uncertainty
results from different potential pathways of technological, economic, and demographic development leading to different emissions of greenhouse gases and the
related response of the climate system.
2.4.2 Precipitation
The projections for precipitation show a more complex picture. The spatial heterogeneity of precipitation is generally larger than the special heterogeneity of temperature. The projected changes for precipitation vary seasonally and across regions
in response to changes in large scale circulations and water vapour loadings. With
regard to the nearer future the evaluation of various climate models does not show a
distinct trend for precipitation in most of the area, especially due to the highest
uncertainties in simulated precipitation trends existing for Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, trends on future precipitation become clearer for the end of the century,
where a shift of precipitation from summer to winter becomes visible. A general
assumption is that the summer precipitation all over Central Europe (except along
the coast of the Baltic Sea) will decrease, while in most cases Central Europe will
most likely become wetter in the winter season. Despite these precipitation
increases, the amount of snow and area covered by snow are expected to decline
due to warming. In contrast, the projections for the summer months show tendencies for a decrease in precipitation especially in the southern parts of Central
Europe. The multi-model mean (cf. Fig. 2.4) shows a decrease up to 25 % in the
summer months for southern Central Europe and an increase in the amount of
precipitation up to 20 % for northern Central Europe in the winter months.
Due to the high spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and the complexity of its development processes, the changes in precipitation show more
regional and seasonal differences than temperature shows. In spring and autumn
the precipitation amount decreases in South and Southeast Europe. In North and
Northeast Europe an increase can be detected. In winter Central and Southeast
Europe show small changes in precipitation sums. Several climate change studies
show a south-north contrast in precipitation, with an increase in North Europe
26
I. Anders et al.
C in the
northern parts of Germany and Poland and up to 3
C in Southeast Europe. For
the winter months the projected increase is the highest in the north-eastern region
(~3
C) and lowest in the western parts of Central Europe (~1.8
C). Thereby, the
spread of the model projections for temperature is high in the summer months,
especially in the southern parts of Central Europe with a coefficient of variation up
to 50 % (not shown).
For all of Central and Eastern Europe a clear temperature rise is visible for the
future which is projected to become more distinct at the end of the century. A
general pattern is that the projected increase of temperature is highest during
summer and lower during winter. For most areas, a comparison of the projections
shows a high uncertainty range, especially during summer. The range of uncertainty
results from different potential pathways of technological, economic, and demographic development leading to different emissions of greenhouse gases and the
related response of the climate system.
2.4.2 Precipitation
The projections for precipitation show a more complex picture. The spatial heterogeneity of precipitation is generally larger than the special heterogeneity of temperature. The projected changes for precipitation vary seasonally and across regions
in response to changes in large scale circulations and water vapour loadings. With
regard to the nearer future the evaluation of various climate models does not show a
distinct trend for precipitation in most of the area, especially due to the highest
uncertainties in simulated precipitation trends existing for Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, trends on future precipitation become clearer for the end of the century,
where a shift of precipitation from summer to winter becomes visible. A general
assumption is that the summer precipitation all over Central Europe (except along
the coast of the Baltic Sea) will decrease, while in most cases Central Europe will
most likely become wetter in the winter season. Despite these precipitation
increases, the amount of snow and area covered by snow are expected to decline
due to warming. In contrast, the projections for the summer months show tendencies for a decrease in precipitation especially in the southern parts of Central
Europe. The multi-model mean (cf. Fig. 2.4) shows a decrease up to 25 % in the
summer months for southern Central Europe and an increase in the amount of
precipitation up to 20 % for northern Central Europe in the winter months.
Due to the high spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and the complexity of its development processes, the changes in precipitation show more
regional and seasonal differences than temperature shows. In spring and autumn
the precipitation amount decreases in South and Southeast Europe. In North and
Northeast Europe an increase can be detected. In winter Central and Southeast
Europe show small changes in precipitation sums. Several climate change studies
show a south-north contrast in precipitation, with an increase in North Europe
26
I. Anders et al.