communication, climate-adapted management of any kind will fail to effectively
achieve its environmental goals (Lee 1991). Environmental conservation –
especially in situations where a vast share of the protected area remains private
(such as in the BNP) – requires the identification of stakeholders and the adjustment
Table 14.1 Qualitative assessment of direct and indirect prospective climate-related impacts to
selected plant associations in the Biebrza Valley
Selected plant
associations
of the Biebrza Valley
Climate-related
impacts to habitats
Climate change-related
stakeholder pressures
and habitat responses
of negative impacts
of positive impacts
Increased frequency and
volume of summer floods
Decreasing frequency and
volume of spring floods and
temporal switch in spring
flooding
Drainage
Cessation of mowing
Spontaneous secondary
succession of shrubs
on open meadows
Bidention tripartite
0
0
0
0
0
0
Alnion glutinosae
1
1
0
0
1
2
Alnion glutinoso-incanae
1
1
0
0
1
2
Alopecurion pratensis
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
4
0
Arrhenatherion elatioris
0
0
0
2
0
Betulo-Salicetum repentis
0
0
3
0
Calthion
0
0
3
0
Caricion davallianae
5
0
Caricion lasiocarpae
0
0
3
0
Caricion nigrae
5
0
Carpinion betuli
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Corynephorion canescentis
0
0
0
0
1
1
Dicrano-Pinion
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Filipendulion ulmariae
0
0
2
1
Koelerion glaucae
0
0
0
2
0
Magnocaricion
0
0
3
0
Molinion caeruleae
0
4
0
Phragmition
1
0
0
0
1
1
Polio-Callunion
0
0
0
0
1
1
Potentillo albae-Quercion
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Salicetum pentandro-cinereae
0
0
0
0
1
1
Spraganio-Glycerion
0
0
0
0
1
1
Vacc.uliginosi-Betul. pubesc.
0
0
0
0
1
1
Violion caninae
0
0
0
0
1
1
1 – positive impact, 0 – ambiguous impact, À1 – negative impact. Only the “extreme” climate
scenario for the Biebrza Valley was considered possible, the most challenging for ecosystem
management. Associations of the most significant negative response are marked grey
222
M. Grygoruk et al.