been considered climate change-related. Therefore, although the environmental
management, which is currently implemented by the BNP can be considered as
adaptive, it does not emphasise the transient influence of climate. Hence, it cannot
be considered climate-adapted.
14.4.3 Qualitative Impact Assessment and Stakeholder
Context of Adaptive Management
Once the prospective climate-induced challenges for the Biebrza Valley were
defined, then in order proceed with the first step towards the establishment of a
climate-adapted management plan for the BNP, the qualitative assessment of
selected, direct and indirect climate-related impacts on selected plant associations
was carried out (Table 14.1). It should be stated that only selected plant associations
have been analysed; in order to perform a comprehensive assessment of the
ecosystem’s response the whole set of species (including invertebrates, fish, birds
and mammals) needs to be included. However, such an approach would have to be
based on detailed and extensive ecological research, which was not the main
purpose of this study. Therefore, only the most valuable plant associations were
assessed. Only the best-defined, direct and indirect impacts of climate change on
the plant associations of the Biebrza Valley were considered. The preliminary
assessment was based on the estimation of projected positive/ambiguous/negative
(quantified as 1, 0 and À1 respectively) influences of climate and climate-inducedmanagement measures to habitats.
An expert knowledge- and literature-based review of plant associations’ resilience to defined impacts revealed that valuable Natura 2000 associations such as
Caricion davallianae, Caricion nigrae, Alopecurion pratensis and Molinion
caeruleae (in general mire meadows) are among the most sensitive to the negative
impacts of climate change in the Biebrza Valley. This is mostly due to the limitation
of water as well as altered flooding in the summer, and due to the prospective spatial
expansion of drainage. As some significant research on plant ecology in the Biebrza
Valley with hydrological reference was already done (see e.g. Olde Venterink
et al. 2009; Wassen et al. 1990), the presented expert-knowledge- and literaturebased preliminary impact assessment approach can be critically reviewed in a more
detailed way for particular environmental elements of the Biebrza Valley, with a
strong, site-specific context. Nevertheless, it appears that the adaptation of management strategies in the BNP should – as a priority – consider buffering potentially
negative direct and indirect climate-change impacts to the contiguity and function
of mires.
Indirect, negative, climate-related pressures on the ecosystems of the Biebrza
Valley, such as drainage expansion, mowing cessation and meadow encroachment
(see Table. 14.1), are clearly related to stakeholders’ attitudes as to the climateinduced impacts. Therefore, it is likely that without appropriate stakeholder
14 Climate-Induced Challenges for Wetlands: Revealing. . .
221
management, which is currently implemented by the BNP can be considered as
adaptive, it does not emphasise the transient influence of climate. Hence, it cannot
be considered climate-adapted.
14.4.3 Qualitative Impact Assessment and Stakeholder
Context of Adaptive Management
Once the prospective climate-induced challenges for the Biebrza Valley were
defined, then in order proceed with the first step towards the establishment of a
climate-adapted management plan for the BNP, the qualitative assessment of
selected, direct and indirect climate-related impacts on selected plant associations
was carried out (Table 14.1). It should be stated that only selected plant associations
have been analysed; in order to perform a comprehensive assessment of the
ecosystem’s response the whole set of species (including invertebrates, fish, birds
and mammals) needs to be included. However, such an approach would have to be
based on detailed and extensive ecological research, which was not the main
purpose of this study. Therefore, only the most valuable plant associations were
assessed. Only the best-defined, direct and indirect impacts of climate change on
the plant associations of the Biebrza Valley were considered. The preliminary
assessment was based on the estimation of projected positive/ambiguous/negative
(quantified as 1, 0 and À1 respectively) influences of climate and climate-inducedmanagement measures to habitats.
An expert knowledge- and literature-based review of plant associations’ resilience to defined impacts revealed that valuable Natura 2000 associations such as
Caricion davallianae, Caricion nigrae, Alopecurion pratensis and Molinion
caeruleae (in general mire meadows) are among the most sensitive to the negative
impacts of climate change in the Biebrza Valley. This is mostly due to the limitation
of water as well as altered flooding in the summer, and due to the prospective spatial
expansion of drainage. As some significant research on plant ecology in the Biebrza
Valley with hydrological reference was already done (see e.g. Olde Venterink
et al. 2009; Wassen et al. 1990), the presented expert-knowledge- and literaturebased preliminary impact assessment approach can be critically reviewed in a more
detailed way for particular environmental elements of the Biebrza Valley, with a
strong, site-specific context. Nevertheless, it appears that the adaptation of management strategies in the BNP should – as a priority – consider buffering potentially
negative direct and indirect climate-change impacts to the contiguity and function
of mires.
Indirect, negative, climate-related pressures on the ecosystems of the Biebrza
Valley, such as drainage expansion, mowing cessation and meadow encroachment
(see Table. 14.1), are clearly related to stakeholders’ attitudes as to the climateinduced impacts. Therefore, it is likely that without appropriate stakeholder
14 Climate-Induced Challenges for Wetlands: Revealing. . .
221