Although the annual sum of precipitation was projected to remain almost equal to
contemporary conditions, a vast reduction in precipitation in the winter (and
consequently snow cover) (November-March), extensive droughts in spring
(April–May), extremely wet summers (June-August) and extremely dry autumns
(September) were hypothetically assumed in the “extreme” scenario on the basis of
the uncertainty range of analysed GCMs-RCMs. Under these hypothetical conditions one can expect (1) sizeable summer flooding, (2) no snow accumulation and
consequently a significantly reduced volume and extent of spring floods, and
(3) serious droughts in the spring and autumn. As discussed in the case of the
hypothetical “mild” scenario, fish, birds and plant associations of the Biebrza
Valley will critically face hypothetical impacts of the “extreme” climate scenario
even more, as most of the key environmental factors (flooding and (over)availability of water) are likely to be significantly altered. Hence, without a doubt, the longterm environmental conservation strategies of the BNP, in order to reach their
environmental goals, will have to consider the climatic impacts on ecosystems and
adapt to climate change.
14.4.2 Legislative Context of Environmental
Management in the Biebrza Valley
Despite the fact that the environmental management of Polish national parks ought
to be established in long-term “Protection Plans” (PPs) (Pol.: Plany Ochrony),
contemporary environmental management measures implemented by the BNP
(and numerous other national parks in Poland) are based on so-called “Management
Objectives” (Minister of the Environment 2011). MOs become a short-term management strategy, proposed each 2 years by the national park’s management,
approved by scientists and authorised by the Minister of the Environment. MOs
are substitutes for PPs, as the legislative context of PPs requires long-term procedures. In the case of many national parks in Poland the PPs’ enhancement process
is ongoing. PPs – in contrast to MOs – have to be approved by a broad audience of
stakeholders (e.g. local authorities, NGOs) before they are signed by the Minister of
the Environment, and therefore become much more complex and long-term management strategies. As MOs are renewed every 2 years, the management goals and
measures are being (or can be) continuously verified and adjusted to current
conditions and circumstances. In this regard, the environmental management
implemented by the BNP can be considered “adaptive”, as it (potentially) anticipates dynamic changes in particular elements of the wetland’s ecosystems
(Grumbine 1994; Lee 1991). On the other hand, due to the short-term set up,
MOs of the BNP do not consider climate change as a driving force, which
potentially induces a dynamic state of ecosystems. Moreover, contemporary stakeholder pressures that occur within the Biebrza Valley (intensification of agriculture,
drainage of wetlands), although partly anticipated by the MOs, also have so far not
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M. Grygoruk et al.
contemporary conditions, a vast reduction in precipitation in the winter (and
consequently snow cover) (November-March), extensive droughts in spring
(April–May), extremely wet summers (June-August) and extremely dry autumns
(September) were hypothetically assumed in the “extreme” scenario on the basis of
the uncertainty range of analysed GCMs-RCMs. Under these hypothetical conditions one can expect (1) sizeable summer flooding, (2) no snow accumulation and
consequently a significantly reduced volume and extent of spring floods, and
(3) serious droughts in the spring and autumn. As discussed in the case of the
hypothetical “mild” scenario, fish, birds and plant associations of the Biebrza
Valley will critically face hypothetical impacts of the “extreme” climate scenario
even more, as most of the key environmental factors (flooding and (over)availability of water) are likely to be significantly altered. Hence, without a doubt, the longterm environmental conservation strategies of the BNP, in order to reach their
environmental goals, will have to consider the climatic impacts on ecosystems and
adapt to climate change.
14.4.2 Legislative Context of Environmental
Management in the Biebrza Valley
Despite the fact that the environmental management of Polish national parks ought
to be established in long-term “Protection Plans” (PPs) (Pol.: Plany Ochrony),
contemporary environmental management measures implemented by the BNP
(and numerous other national parks in Poland) are based on so-called “Management
Objectives” (Minister of the Environment 2011). MOs become a short-term management strategy, proposed each 2 years by the national park’s management,
approved by scientists and authorised by the Minister of the Environment. MOs
are substitutes for PPs, as the legislative context of PPs requires long-term procedures. In the case of many national parks in Poland the PPs’ enhancement process
is ongoing. PPs – in contrast to MOs – have to be approved by a broad audience of
stakeholders (e.g. local authorities, NGOs) before they are signed by the Minister of
the Environment, and therefore become much more complex and long-term management strategies. As MOs are renewed every 2 years, the management goals and
measures are being (or can be) continuously verified and adjusted to current
conditions and circumstances. In this regard, the environmental management
implemented by the BNP can be considered “adaptive”, as it (potentially) anticipates dynamic changes in particular elements of the wetland’s ecosystems
(Grumbine 1994; Lee 1991). On the other hand, due to the short-term set up,
MOs of the BNP do not consider climate change as a driving force, which
potentially induces a dynamic state of ecosystems. Moreover, contemporary stakeholder pressures that occur within the Biebrza Valley (intensification of agriculture,
drainage of wetlands), although partly anticipated by the MOs, also have so far not
220
M. Grygoruk et al.