precipitation indices over India using PRECIS. Global Planet
Change 113:77–90
Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1983) The relationship between eastern
equatorial Pacific SSTs and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon
Wea Rev 111:517–528. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)
111%3c0517:TRBEEP%3e2.0.CO;2
Rodwell MJ (1997) Breaks in the Asian monsoon: the influence of
Southern Hemisphere weather systems. J Atmos Sci 54:2597–2611.
https://doi.org/10.1175/15200469(1997)054%3c2597:BITAMT%
3e2.0.CO;2
Roja Raman M, Jagannadha Rao V, Venkat Ratnam M, Rajeevan M,
Rao S, Narayana Rao D, Prabhakara Rao N (2009) Characteristics
of the Tropical Easterly Jet: long-term trends and their features
during active and break monsoon phases. J Geophy Res 114:D19.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012065
Romatschke U, Houze RA Jr (2011) Characteristics of precipitating
convective systems in the South Asian monsoon. J Hydrometeorol
12:3–26. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1289.1
Roxy M (2015) Sensitivity of precipitation to sea surface temperature
over the tropical summer monsoon region—and its quantification.
Clim Dyn 43(5–6):1159–1169
Roxy MK, Ghosh S, Pathak A, Athulya R, Mujumdar M, Raghu M,
Pascal T, Rajeevan M (2017) A threefold rise in widespread
extreme rain events over central India. Nat Commun 8:708. https://
doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9
Roxy MK, Kapoor R, Terray P, Murtugudde R, Ashok K,
Goswami BN (2015) Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian
Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nat
Commun 6:7423. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8423
Roxy MK, Modi A, Murtugudde R, Valsala V, Panickal S, Prasanna
Kumar S, Ravichandran M (2016) A reduction in marine primary
productivity driven by rapid warming over the tropical Indian
Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 43:826–833. https://doi.org/10.1002/
2015gl066979
Roxy MK, Ritika K, Terray P, Masson S (2014) The curious case of
Indian Ocean warming. J Clim 27:8501–8509. https://doi.org/10.
1175/JCLI-D-14-00471.1
Sabade S, Kulkarni A, Kripalani R (2011) Projected changes in South
Asian summer monsoon by multi-model global warming experiments. Theor Appl Climatol 103(3–4):543–565. https://doi.org/10.
1007/s00704-010-0296-5
Sabeerali CT, Ajayamohan RS (2018) On the shortening of Indian
summer monsoon season in a warming scenario. Clim Dyn 50(5–
6):1609–1624. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3709-7
Sabeerali CT, Rao SA, George G, Rao DN, Mahapatra S, Kulkarni A,
Murtugudde R (2015) Modulation of monsoon intraseasonal
oscillations in the recent warming period. J Geophys Res Atmos
119:5185–5203. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021261
Sabin TP, Ghattas J, Denvil S, Dufresne JL, Hourdin F, Pascal T (2013)
High resolution simulation of the South Asian monsoon using a
variable resolution global climate model. Clim Dyn 41(1):173–194.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1658-8
Saha A, Ghosh S, Sahana AS, Rao EP (2014) Failure of CMIP5 climate
models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian
monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 41:7323–7330. https://doi.org/10.
1002/2014GL061573
Sahana A, Ghosh S, Ganguly A, Murtugudde R (2015) Shift in Indian
summer monsoon onset during 1976/1977. Environ Res Lett 10
(5):054006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054006
Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A
dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363.
https://doi.org/10.1038/43854
Saji NH, Yamagata T (2003) Possible impacts of Indian Ocean dipole
mode events on global climate. Clim Res 25(2):151–169. https://
doi.org/10.3354/cr025151
Salzmann M, Cherian R (2015) On the enhancement of the Indian
summer monsoon drying by Pacific multidecadal variability during
the latter half of the twentieth century. J Geophys Res 120
(18):9103–9118. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023313
Samuelsson P, Jones CG, Willén U et al (2011) The Rossby centre
regional climate model RCA3: model description and performance.
Tellus A Dyn Meteorol Oceanogr 63:4–23. https://doi.org/10.1111/
j.1600-0870.2010.00478.x
Sankar S, Svendsen L, Gokulapalan B, Joseph PV, Johannessen OM
(2016) The relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall
and Atlantic multidecadal variability over the last 500 years.
Tellus A 68:1–14. https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.31717
Sanyal P, Sinha R (2010) Evolution of the Indian summer monsoon:
synthesis of continental records. Geol Soc Lond Spec Publ
342:153–183. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP342.11
Sarita A, Rajeevan M (2016) Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian
monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming. Sci Rep
6(1):20145. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep20145
Sathiyamoorthy V (2005) Large scale reduction in the size of the
Tropical Easterly Jet. Geophys Res Lett 32:L14802. https://doi.org/
10.1029/2005GL022956
Sharmila S, Joseph S, Sahai AK, Abhilash S, Chattopadhyay R (2015)
Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under
climate change scenario: an assessment from CMIP5 climate
models. Glob Planet Chang 124:62–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/
j.gloplacha.2014.11.004
Shi F, Fang KY, Xu C, Guo ZT, Borgaonkar HP (2017) Interannual to
centennial variability of the South Asian summer monsoon over the
past millennium. Clim Dyn 49:2803–2814
Shukla J (1987) Interannual variability of monsoons. In: Lighthill J,
Pearce RP (eds) Monsoon dynamic. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, pp 399–463
Sikka DR (1977) Some aspects of the life history, structure and
movement of monsoon depressions. Pure appl Geophys 115:1501–
1529. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00874421
Sikka DR (1980) Some aspects of the large scale fluctuations of
summer monsoon rainfall over India in relation to fluctuations in the
planetary and regional scale circulation parameters. Earth Planet Sci
89:179–195. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02913749
Sikka DR, Gadgil S (1980) On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ
over India longitude during the southwest monsoon. Mon Wea Rev
108:1840–1853.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108%
3c1840:OTMCZA%3e2.0.CO;2
Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Bronaugh D (2013)
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part
2. Future climate projections. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:2473–
2493. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50188
Singh D, Tsiang M, Rajaratnam B, Diffenbaugh NS (2014) Observed
changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian
summer monsoon season. Nat Clim Change 4:456–461. https://doi.
org/10.1038/nclimate2208
Singh N, Sontakke NA (1999) On the variability and prediction of
post-monsoon rainfall over India. Int J Climatol 19:309–339.
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19990315)19:3%3c309:
AID-JOC361%3e3.0.CO;2
Singh SV, Kripalani RH, Sikka DR (1992) Interannual variability of the
Madden–Julian oscillations in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
J. Climate 5:973–978
Singh R, AchutaRao K (2018) Quantifying uncertainty in twenty-first
century climate change over India. Clim Dyn 52(7–8):3905–3928.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4361-6
Sinha A, Stott LD, Berkelhammer M, Cheng H, Edwards RL,
Aldenderfer M, Mudelsee M, Buckley B (2011) A global context
for monsoon mega droughts during the past millennium. Quat Sci
Rev 30:47–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.10.005
3 Precipitation Changes in India
71
Change 113:77–90
Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1983) The relationship between eastern
equatorial Pacific SSTs and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon
Wea Rev 111:517–528. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)
111%3c0517:TRBEEP%3e2.0.CO;2
Rodwell MJ (1997) Breaks in the Asian monsoon: the influence of
Southern Hemisphere weather systems. J Atmos Sci 54:2597–2611.
https://doi.org/10.1175/15200469(1997)054%3c2597:BITAMT%
3e2.0.CO;2
Roja Raman M, Jagannadha Rao V, Venkat Ratnam M, Rajeevan M,
Rao S, Narayana Rao D, Prabhakara Rao N (2009) Characteristics
of the Tropical Easterly Jet: long-term trends and their features
during active and break monsoon phases. J Geophy Res 114:D19.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012065
Romatschke U, Houze RA Jr (2011) Characteristics of precipitating
convective systems in the South Asian monsoon. J Hydrometeorol
12:3–26. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JHM1289.1
Roxy M (2015) Sensitivity of precipitation to sea surface temperature
over the tropical summer monsoon region—and its quantification.
Clim Dyn 43(5–6):1159–1169
Roxy MK, Ghosh S, Pathak A, Athulya R, Mujumdar M, Raghu M,
Pascal T, Rajeevan M (2017) A threefold rise in widespread
extreme rain events over central India. Nat Commun 8:708. https://
doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9
Roxy MK, Kapoor R, Terray P, Murtugudde R, Ashok K,
Goswami BN (2015) Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian
Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nat
Commun 6:7423. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8423
Roxy MK, Modi A, Murtugudde R, Valsala V, Panickal S, Prasanna
Kumar S, Ravichandran M (2016) A reduction in marine primary
productivity driven by rapid warming over the tropical Indian
Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 43:826–833. https://doi.org/10.1002/
2015gl066979
Roxy MK, Ritika K, Terray P, Masson S (2014) The curious case of
Indian Ocean warming. J Clim 27:8501–8509. https://doi.org/10.
1175/JCLI-D-14-00471.1
Sabade S, Kulkarni A, Kripalani R (2011) Projected changes in South
Asian summer monsoon by multi-model global warming experiments. Theor Appl Climatol 103(3–4):543–565. https://doi.org/10.
1007/s00704-010-0296-5
Sabeerali CT, Ajayamohan RS (2018) On the shortening of Indian
summer monsoon season in a warming scenario. Clim Dyn 50(5–
6):1609–1624. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3709-7
Sabeerali CT, Rao SA, George G, Rao DN, Mahapatra S, Kulkarni A,
Murtugudde R (2015) Modulation of monsoon intraseasonal
oscillations in the recent warming period. J Geophys Res Atmos
119:5185–5203. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021261
Sabin TP, Ghattas J, Denvil S, Dufresne JL, Hourdin F, Pascal T (2013)
High resolution simulation of the South Asian monsoon using a
variable resolution global climate model. Clim Dyn 41(1):173–194.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1658-8
Saha A, Ghosh S, Sahana AS, Rao EP (2014) Failure of CMIP5 climate
models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian
monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 41:7323–7330. https://doi.org/10.
1002/2014GL061573
Sahana A, Ghosh S, Ganguly A, Murtugudde R (2015) Shift in Indian
summer monsoon onset during 1976/1977. Environ Res Lett 10
(5):054006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054006
Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A
dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363.
https://doi.org/10.1038/43854
Saji NH, Yamagata T (2003) Possible impacts of Indian Ocean dipole
mode events on global climate. Clim Res 25(2):151–169. https://
doi.org/10.3354/cr025151
Salzmann M, Cherian R (2015) On the enhancement of the Indian
summer monsoon drying by Pacific multidecadal variability during
the latter half of the twentieth century. J Geophys Res 120
(18):9103–9118. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023313
Samuelsson P, Jones CG, Willén U et al (2011) The Rossby centre
regional climate model RCA3: model description and performance.
Tellus A Dyn Meteorol Oceanogr 63:4–23. https://doi.org/10.1111/
j.1600-0870.2010.00478.x
Sankar S, Svendsen L, Gokulapalan B, Joseph PV, Johannessen OM
(2016) The relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall
and Atlantic multidecadal variability over the last 500 years.
Tellus A 68:1–14. https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.31717
Sanyal P, Sinha R (2010) Evolution of the Indian summer monsoon:
synthesis of continental records. Geol Soc Lond Spec Publ
342:153–183. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP342.11
Sarita A, Rajeevan M (2016) Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian
monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming. Sci Rep
6(1):20145. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep20145
Sathiyamoorthy V (2005) Large scale reduction in the size of the
Tropical Easterly Jet. Geophys Res Lett 32:L14802. https://doi.org/
10.1029/2005GL022956
Sharmila S, Joseph S, Sahai AK, Abhilash S, Chattopadhyay R (2015)
Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under
climate change scenario: an assessment from CMIP5 climate
models. Glob Planet Chang 124:62–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/
j.gloplacha.2014.11.004
Shi F, Fang KY, Xu C, Guo ZT, Borgaonkar HP (2017) Interannual to
centennial variability of the South Asian summer monsoon over the
past millennium. Clim Dyn 49:2803–2814
Shukla J (1987) Interannual variability of monsoons. In: Lighthill J,
Pearce RP (eds) Monsoon dynamic. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, pp 399–463
Sikka DR (1977) Some aspects of the life history, structure and
movement of monsoon depressions. Pure appl Geophys 115:1501–
1529. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00874421
Sikka DR (1980) Some aspects of the large scale fluctuations of
summer monsoon rainfall over India in relation to fluctuations in the
planetary and regional scale circulation parameters. Earth Planet Sci
89:179–195. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02913749
Sikka DR, Gadgil S (1980) On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ
over India longitude during the southwest monsoon. Mon Wea Rev
108:1840–1853.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108%
3c1840:OTMCZA%3e2.0.CO;2
Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Bronaugh D (2013)
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part
2. Future climate projections. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:2473–
2493. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50188
Singh D, Tsiang M, Rajaratnam B, Diffenbaugh NS (2014) Observed
changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian
summer monsoon season. Nat Clim Change 4:456–461. https://doi.
org/10.1038/nclimate2208
Singh N, Sontakke NA (1999) On the variability and prediction of
post-monsoon rainfall over India. Int J Climatol 19:309–339.
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19990315)19:3%3c309:
AID-JOC361%3e3.0.CO;2
Singh SV, Kripalani RH, Sikka DR (1992) Interannual variability of the
Madden–Julian oscillations in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
J. Climate 5:973–978
Singh R, AchutaRao K (2018) Quantifying uncertainty in twenty-first
century climate change over India. Clim Dyn 52(7–8):3905–3928.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4361-6
Sinha A, Stott LD, Berkelhammer M, Cheng H, Edwards RL,
Aldenderfer M, Mudelsee M, Buckley B (2011) A global context
for monsoon mega droughts during the past millennium. Quat Sci
Rev 30:47–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.10.005
3 Precipitation Changes in India
71