more prominently so over the central and southern parts as a
response to enhanced warming. Monsoon onset dates are
likely to be early or not to change much, and the monsoon
retreat dates are likely to be delayed, resulting in lengthening
of the monsoon season.
References
Alexander LV (2016) Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: a review of progress and
limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond. Weather Clim Extrem
11:4–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.10.007
Ananthakrishnan R, Srinivasan V, Ramakrishnan AR, Jambunathan R
(1968) Synoptic features associated with onset of southwest
monsoon over Kerala, Forecasting Manual Report No. IV-18.2,
India Meteorological Department, Pune, India
Ananthakrishnan R, Soman MK (1988) The onset of the southwest
monsoon over Kerala: 1901–1980. J Clim 8(3):283–296
Annamalai H, Hafner J, Sooraj KP, Piilai P (2013) Global warming
shifts the monsoon circulation, drying south Asia. J Clim 26
(9):2701–2718. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00208.1
Annamalai H, Slingo JM (2001) Active/break cycles: diagnosis of the
intraseasonal variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon. Clim Dyn
18(1–2):85–102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820100161
Annamalai H, Hamilton K, Sperber KR (2007) The south Asian
summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4
simulations. J Clim 20(6):1071–1092. https://doi.org/10.1175/
JCLI4035.1
Ashok K, Guan Z, Saji NH, Yamagata T (2004) Individual and
combined influences of ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole on the
Indian summer monsoon. J Clim 17:3141–3155. https://doi.org/10.
1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3c3141:IACIOE%3e2.0.CO;2
Ashok K, Saji N (2007) On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean
dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Nat
Hazards: J Int Soc Prev Mitig Nat Hazards. Springer; Int Soc Prev
Mitig Nat Hazards 42(2):273–285. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069006-9091-0
Ashrit R, Kumar KR, Kumar KK (2001) ENSO-monsoon relationships
in a greenhouse warming scenario. Geophys Res Lett 28:1727–1730
Balachandran S, Asokan A, Sridharan S (2006) Global surface
temperature in relation to northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil
Nadu. J Earth Syst Sci 115(3):349–362. https://www.ias.ac.in/
article/fulltext/jess/115/03/0349-0362
Bamzai AS, Kinter JL (1997) Climatology and interannual variability
of Northern Hemisphere snow cover and depth based on satellite
observations. Center for ocean land atmosphere studies report 52,
COLA, Calverton, 48pp
Berkelhammer M, Sinha A, Stott L, Cheng H, Pausata FSR,
Yoshimura K (2012) An abrupt shift in the Indian monsoon
4000 years ago. In: Giosan Let al (eds) Climates, landscapes, and
civilizations, vol 198. American Geophysical Union Geophysical
Monograph, pp 75–87. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GM001207
Bhanu Kumar OSRU (1987) Seasonal variation of Eurasian snow cover
and its impact on the Indian summer monsoon. In: Large scale
effects of seasonal snow cover. Proceedings of Vancouver symposium, Publication 166. International Association of Hydrological
Sciences, pp 51–60
Bidyabati S, Ashok K, Pai DS (2017) Uncertainties in observations and
climate projections for the North East India. Glob Planet Chang
160:96–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.11.010
Blanford HF (1884) On the connection of Himalayan snowfall and
seasons of drought in India. Proc R Soc London 37(232–234):3–22.
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspl.1884.0003
Bollasina M, Ming Y, Ramaswamy V (2011) Anthropogenic aerosols
and the weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Science
334(6055):502–505
Bollasina M, Ming Y, Ramaswamy V, Schwarzkopf MD, Naik V
(2014) Contribution of local and remote anthropogenic aerosols to
the 20th century Weakening of the South Asian Monsoon. Geophys
Res Lett 41(2):680–687. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058183
Bush SJ, Turner AG, Woolnough SJ, Martin GM, Klingaman NP
(2014) The effect of increased convective entrainment on Asian
monsoon biases in the MetUM general circulation model. Q J R
Meteorol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2371
Cai W, Wang G, Gan B, Wu L, Santoso A, Lin X, Chen Z, Jia F,
Yamagata T (2018) Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian
Ocean Dipole under 1.5 °C warming. Nat Commun 9(1):1419.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03789-6
Chao WC, Chen B (2001) The origin of monsoons. J AtmosSci
58:3497–3507
Chaturvedi RK, Joshi J, Jayaraman M, Bala G, Ravindranath NH
(2012) Multi-model climate change projections for India under
representative concentration pathways. Curr Sci 103(7):791–802.
http://dspace.library.iitb.ac.in/jspui/handle/100/15902
Cheng H, Edwards RL, Sinha A, Spötl C, Yi L, Chen S, Kelly M,
Kathayat G, Wang X, Li X, Kong X, Wang Y, Ning Y, Zhang H
(2016) The Asian monsoon over the past 640,000 years and ice age
terminations. Nature 534(7609):640–646. https://doi.org/10.1038/
nature18591
Cherchi A, Alessandri A, Masina S, Navarra A (2011) Effects of
increased CO 2 levels on monsoons. Clim Dyn 37(1–2):83–101.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0801-7
Chowdary JS, Bandgar AB, Gnanaseelan C, Luo JJ (2015) Role of
tropical Indian Ocean air–sea interactions in modulating Indian
summer monsoon in a coupled model. Atmos Sci Lett 16:170–176
Chowdary JS, Patekar D, Srinivas G, Gnanaseelan C, Parekh A (2019)
Impact of the Indo-Western Pacific Ocean capacitor mode on South
Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 53:2327. https://doi.org/
10.1007/s00382-019-04850-w
Chung CE, Ramanathan V (2006) Weakening of North Indian SST
gradients and the monsoon rainfall in India and the Sahel. J Clim
19:2036–2045.https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3820.1
Dash SK, Kulkarni MA, Mohanty UC, Prasad K (2009) Changes in the
characteristics of rain events
De US, Mukhopadhyay RK (2002) Breaks in monsoon and related
precursors. Mausam 53:309–318
Dhar ON, Rakhecha PR (1983) Forecasting northeast monsoon rainfall
over Tamil Nadu, India. Mon Weather Rev 111:109–112. https://
doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111%3c0109:FNMROT%3e2.0.
CO;2
Dimri AP (2013) Intraseasonal oscillation associated with the Indian
winter monsoon. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(3):1189–1198. https://
doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50144
Dimri AP, Niyogi D, Barros AP, Ridley J, Mohanty UC, Yasunari T,
Sikka DR (2015) Western disturbances: a review. Rev Geophys 53
(2):225–246. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000460
Douville H, Royer J-F, Polcher J, Cox P, Gedney N, Stephenson DB,
Valdes PJ (2000) Impact of CO 2 doubling on the Asian summer
monsoon: robust versus model‐dependent responses. J Meteor Soc
Japan 78(2000):421–439. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.78.4_
421
Fan F, Mann ME, Lee S, Evans JL (2010) Observed and modeled
changes in the South Asian monsoon over the historical period.
J Clim 23:5193–5205. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3374.1
3 Precipitation Changes in India
67
response to enhanced warming. Monsoon onset dates are
likely to be early or not to change much, and the monsoon
retreat dates are likely to be delayed, resulting in lengthening
of the monsoon season.
References
Alexander LV (2016) Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: a review of progress and
limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond. Weather Clim Extrem
11:4–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.10.007
Ananthakrishnan R, Srinivasan V, Ramakrishnan AR, Jambunathan R
(1968) Synoptic features associated with onset of southwest
monsoon over Kerala, Forecasting Manual Report No. IV-18.2,
India Meteorological Department, Pune, India
Ananthakrishnan R, Soman MK (1988) The onset of the southwest
monsoon over Kerala: 1901–1980. J Clim 8(3):283–296
Annamalai H, Hafner J, Sooraj KP, Piilai P (2013) Global warming
shifts the monsoon circulation, drying south Asia. J Clim 26
(9):2701–2718. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00208.1
Annamalai H, Slingo JM (2001) Active/break cycles: diagnosis of the
intraseasonal variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon. Clim Dyn
18(1–2):85–102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820100161
Annamalai H, Hamilton K, Sperber KR (2007) The south Asian
summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4
simulations. J Clim 20(6):1071–1092. https://doi.org/10.1175/
JCLI4035.1
Ashok K, Guan Z, Saji NH, Yamagata T (2004) Individual and
combined influences of ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole on the
Indian summer monsoon. J Clim 17:3141–3155. https://doi.org/10.
1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3c3141:IACIOE%3e2.0.CO;2
Ashok K, Saji N (2007) On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean
dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Nat
Hazards: J Int Soc Prev Mitig Nat Hazards. Springer; Int Soc Prev
Mitig Nat Hazards 42(2):273–285. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069006-9091-0
Ashrit R, Kumar KR, Kumar KK (2001) ENSO-monsoon relationships
in a greenhouse warming scenario. Geophys Res Lett 28:1727–1730
Balachandran S, Asokan A, Sridharan S (2006) Global surface
temperature in relation to northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil
Nadu. J Earth Syst Sci 115(3):349–362. https://www.ias.ac.in/
article/fulltext/jess/115/03/0349-0362
Bamzai AS, Kinter JL (1997) Climatology and interannual variability
of Northern Hemisphere snow cover and depth based on satellite
observations. Center for ocean land atmosphere studies report 52,
COLA, Calverton, 48pp
Berkelhammer M, Sinha A, Stott L, Cheng H, Pausata FSR,
Yoshimura K (2012) An abrupt shift in the Indian monsoon
4000 years ago. In: Giosan Let al (eds) Climates, landscapes, and
civilizations, vol 198. American Geophysical Union Geophysical
Monograph, pp 75–87. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GM001207
Bhanu Kumar OSRU (1987) Seasonal variation of Eurasian snow cover
and its impact on the Indian summer monsoon. In: Large scale
effects of seasonal snow cover. Proceedings of Vancouver symposium, Publication 166. International Association of Hydrological
Sciences, pp 51–60
Bidyabati S, Ashok K, Pai DS (2017) Uncertainties in observations and
climate projections for the North East India. Glob Planet Chang
160:96–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.11.010
Blanford HF (1884) On the connection of Himalayan snowfall and
seasons of drought in India. Proc R Soc London 37(232–234):3–22.
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspl.1884.0003
Bollasina M, Ming Y, Ramaswamy V (2011) Anthropogenic aerosols
and the weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Science
334(6055):502–505
Bollasina M, Ming Y, Ramaswamy V, Schwarzkopf MD, Naik V
(2014) Contribution of local and remote anthropogenic aerosols to
the 20th century Weakening of the South Asian Monsoon. Geophys
Res Lett 41(2):680–687. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058183
Bush SJ, Turner AG, Woolnough SJ, Martin GM, Klingaman NP
(2014) The effect of increased convective entrainment on Asian
monsoon biases in the MetUM general circulation model. Q J R
Meteorol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2371
Cai W, Wang G, Gan B, Wu L, Santoso A, Lin X, Chen Z, Jia F,
Yamagata T (2018) Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian
Ocean Dipole under 1.5 °C warming. Nat Commun 9(1):1419.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03789-6
Chao WC, Chen B (2001) The origin of monsoons. J AtmosSci
58:3497–3507
Chaturvedi RK, Joshi J, Jayaraman M, Bala G, Ravindranath NH
(2012) Multi-model climate change projections for India under
representative concentration pathways. Curr Sci 103(7):791–802.
http://dspace.library.iitb.ac.in/jspui/handle/100/15902
Cheng H, Edwards RL, Sinha A, Spötl C, Yi L, Chen S, Kelly M,
Kathayat G, Wang X, Li X, Kong X, Wang Y, Ning Y, Zhang H
(2016) The Asian monsoon over the past 640,000 years and ice age
terminations. Nature 534(7609):640–646. https://doi.org/10.1038/
nature18591
Cherchi A, Alessandri A, Masina S, Navarra A (2011) Effects of
increased CO 2 levels on monsoons. Clim Dyn 37(1–2):83–101.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0801-7
Chowdary JS, Bandgar AB, Gnanaseelan C, Luo JJ (2015) Role of
tropical Indian Ocean air–sea interactions in modulating Indian
summer monsoon in a coupled model. Atmos Sci Lett 16:170–176
Chowdary JS, Patekar D, Srinivas G, Gnanaseelan C, Parekh A (2019)
Impact of the Indo-Western Pacific Ocean capacitor mode on South
Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 53:2327. https://doi.org/
10.1007/s00382-019-04850-w
Chung CE, Ramanathan V (2006) Weakening of North Indian SST
gradients and the monsoon rainfall in India and the Sahel. J Clim
19:2036–2045.https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3820.1
Dash SK, Kulkarni MA, Mohanty UC, Prasad K (2009) Changes in the
characteristics of rain events
De US, Mukhopadhyay RK (2002) Breaks in monsoon and related
precursors. Mausam 53:309–318
Dhar ON, Rakhecha PR (1983) Forecasting northeast monsoon rainfall
over Tamil Nadu, India. Mon Weather Rev 111:109–112. https://
doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111%3c0109:FNMROT%3e2.0.
CO;2
Dimri AP (2013) Intraseasonal oscillation associated with the Indian
winter monsoon. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(3):1189–1198. https://
doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50144
Dimri AP, Niyogi D, Barros AP, Ridley J, Mohanty UC, Yasunari T,
Sikka DR (2015) Western disturbances: a review. Rev Geophys 53
(2):225–246. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000460
Douville H, Royer J-F, Polcher J, Cox P, Gedney N, Stephenson DB,
Valdes PJ (2000) Impact of CO 2 doubling on the Asian summer
monsoon: robust versus model‐dependent responses. J Meteor Soc
Japan 78(2000):421–439. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.78.4_
421
Fan F, Mann ME, Lee S, Evans JL (2010) Observed and modeled
changes in the South Asian monsoon over the historical period.
J Clim 23:5193–5205. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3374.1
3 Precipitation Changes in India
67