Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A,
Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical
science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth
assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate
change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Haustein K, Allen MR, Forster PM, Otto FEL, Mitchell DM,
Matthews HD, Frame DJ (2017) A real-time global warming index.
Sci Rep 7:15417. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14828-5
Hirabayashi Y, Mahendran R, Koirala S et al (2013) Global flood risk
under climate change. Nat Clim Change 3:816–821. https://doi.org/
10.1038/nclimate1911
Houze RA (1997) Stratiform precipitation in regions of convection: a
meteorological paradox? Bull Am Meteor Soc 78(10):2179–2196.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078%3c2179:SPIROC%
3e2.0.CO;2
Houze RA, Wilton DC, Smull BF (2007) Monsoon convection in the
Himalayan region as seen by the TRMM precipitation radar. Quart J
R Meteorol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.106
Hunt KMR, Turner AG, Shaffrey LC (2018) The evolution, seasonality
and impacts of western disturbances. R Meteorol Soc, Q.J. https://
doi.org/10.1002/qj.3200
Jayasankar CB, Surendran S, Rajendran K (2015) Robust signals of
future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5
climate models: role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability.
Geophys Res Lett 42(9):3513–3520. https://doi.org/10.1002/
2015GL063659
Kääb A, Treichler D, Nuth C, Berthier E (2015) Brief communication:
contending estimates of 2003–2008 glacier mass balance over the
Pamir–Karakoram–Himalaya. Cryosphere 9(2):557–564. https://
doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-557-2015
Kapnick SB, Delworth TL, Ashfaq M, Malyshev S, Milly PCD (2014)
Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas
due to a unique seasonal cycle. Nat Geosci 7:834–840
Kirtman B et al (2013) Near-term climate change: projections and
predictability. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M,
Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM
(eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution
of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, pp 953–1028
Kitoh A (2017) The Asian monsoon and its future change in climate
models: a review. J Meteorol Soc Jpn. Ser. II 95(1):7–33. https://
doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2017-002
Konwar M, Das SK, Deshpande SM, Chakravarty K, Goswami BN
(2014) Microphysics of clouds and rain over the Western Ghat.
J Geophys Res Atmos 119(10):6140–6159. https://doi.org/10.1002/
2014JD021606
Krishnamurti TN, Surgi N (1987) Observational aspects of summer
monsoon. In: Chang C-P, Krishnamurti TN (eds) Chapter in book
Monsoon meteorology. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 3–25
Krishnan R, Ramanathan V (2002) Evidence of surface cooling from
absorbing aerosols. Geophys Res Lett 29:2002GL014687, 54 (1–4)
Krishnan R, Sabin TP, Ayantika DC, Kitoh A, Sugi M, Murakami H,
Turner AG, Slingo JM, Rajendran K (2013) Will the South Asian
monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further? Clim Dyn
40:187–211
Krishnan R, Sabin TP, Vellore R, Mujumdar M, Sanjay J,
Goswami BN, Hourdin F, Dufresne J-L, Terray P (2016) Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon
hydroclimate in a warming world. Clim Dyn 47:1007–1027.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2886-5
Krishnan R, Sabin TP, Madhura RK, Vellore RK, Mujumdar M,
Sanjay J, Nayak S, Rajeevan M (2019a) Non-monsoonal precipitation response over the western Himalayas to climate change.
Clim Dyn 52:4091–4109
Krishnan R et al (2019b) Unravelling climate change in the Hindu Kush
Himalaya: rapid warming in the mountains and increasing extremes.
In: Wester P, Mishra A, Mukherji A, Shrestha A (eds) The Hindu
Kush himalaya assessment. Springer, Cham
Kulkarni A (2012) Weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in
warming environment. Theoret Appl Climatol 109:447–459
Kulkarni AV, Karyakarte Y (2014) Observed changes in Himalayan
glaciers. Curr Sci 106(2):237–244
Liu X, Cheng Z, Yan L et al (2009) Elevation dependency of recent
and future minimum surface air temperature trends in the
Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings Glob. Planet Change
68:164–174
Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW, Shrestha AB, Bierkens MFP (2014)
Consistent increase in High Asia’s runoff due to increasing glacier
melt and precipitation. Nat Clim Chang 4:587–592. https://doi.org/
10.1038/nclimate2237
Lutz AF, terMaat HW, Wijngaard RR et al (2019) South Asian river
basins in a 1.5 °C warmer world. Reg Environ Chang 19:833–847.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1433-4
Marcott SA, Shakun JD, Clark PU, Mix AC (2013) A reconstruction of
regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years. Science
339(6124):1198–1201. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1228026
Meehl GA, Boer GJ, Covey C, Latif M, Stouffer RJ (2000) The coupled
model intercomparison project (CMIP). Bull Amer Meteor Soc
81:313–318
Meehl GA, Hibbard KA (2007) A strategy for climate change
stabilization experiments with AOGCMS and ESMS. WCRP
Informal Rep. 3/2007, ICPO Publ. 112, IGBP Rep. 57, 35 pp
Menon A, Levermann A, Schewe J (2013) Enhanced future variability
during India’s rainy season. GRL 40:3242–3247
Mukherjee S, Aadhar S, Stone D, Mishra V (2018) Increase in extreme
precipitation events under anthropogenic warming in India. Weather
Clim Extremes 20:45–53
Mukhopadhyay P, Jaswal A, Deshpande M (2017) In: Rajeevan M,
Nayak S (eds) Observed climate variability and change over the
Indian region. Springer, Berlin, pp 129–144
Myhre G, Shindell D, Bréon F-M, Collins W, Fuglestvedt J, Huang J,
Koch D, Lamarque J-F, Lee D, Mendoza B, Nakajima T,
Robock A, Stephens G, Takemura T, Zhang H (2013) Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing. In: Stocker TF, Qin D,
Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y,
Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical
science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth
assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate
change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Nair VS, Babu SS, Manoj MR, Moorthy KK, Chin M (2016) Direct
radiative effects of aerosols over South Asia from observations and
modeling. Clim Dyn 49:1411–1428. https://doi.org/10.1007/
s00382-016-3384-0
O’Neill BC et al (2017) The roads ahead: narratives for shared
socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st
century. Glob Environ Change 42:169–180. https://doi.org/10.1016/
j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004
Otto FEL, Frame DJ, Otto A, Allen MR (2015) Embracing uncertainty
in climate change policy. Nat Clim Change 5:1–5. https://doi.org/
10.1038/nclimate2716
Pant GB, Parthasarathy B (1981) Some aspects of an association
between the Southern Oscillation and Indian summer monsoon.
Arch Meteor Geophys Biokl B29:245–252
Rajeevan M, Unnikrishnan CK, Bhate J, Niranjan Kumar K,
Sreekala PP (2012) Northeast monsoon over India. Meteorol Appl
19:226–236
Rajendran K, Kitoh A (2008) Indian summer monsoon in future climate
projection by a super high-resolution global model. Curr Sci 95
(11):1560–1569
18
R. Krishnan et al.
Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical
science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth
assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate
change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Haustein K, Allen MR, Forster PM, Otto FEL, Mitchell DM,
Matthews HD, Frame DJ (2017) A real-time global warming index.
Sci Rep 7:15417. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14828-5
Hirabayashi Y, Mahendran R, Koirala S et al (2013) Global flood risk
under climate change. Nat Clim Change 3:816–821. https://doi.org/
10.1038/nclimate1911
Houze RA (1997) Stratiform precipitation in regions of convection: a
meteorological paradox? Bull Am Meteor Soc 78(10):2179–2196.
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078%3c2179:SPIROC%
3e2.0.CO;2
Houze RA, Wilton DC, Smull BF (2007) Monsoon convection in the
Himalayan region as seen by the TRMM precipitation radar. Quart J
R Meteorol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.106
Hunt KMR, Turner AG, Shaffrey LC (2018) The evolution, seasonality
and impacts of western disturbances. R Meteorol Soc, Q.J. https://
doi.org/10.1002/qj.3200
Jayasankar CB, Surendran S, Rajendran K (2015) Robust signals of
future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5
climate models: role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability.
Geophys Res Lett 42(9):3513–3520. https://doi.org/10.1002/
2015GL063659
Kääb A, Treichler D, Nuth C, Berthier E (2015) Brief communication:
contending estimates of 2003–2008 glacier mass balance over the
Pamir–Karakoram–Himalaya. Cryosphere 9(2):557–564. https://
doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-557-2015
Kapnick SB, Delworth TL, Ashfaq M, Malyshev S, Milly PCD (2014)
Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas
due to a unique seasonal cycle. Nat Geosci 7:834–840
Kirtman B et al (2013) Near-term climate change: projections and
predictability. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M,
Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM
(eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution
of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, pp 953–1028
Kitoh A (2017) The Asian monsoon and its future change in climate
models: a review. J Meteorol Soc Jpn. Ser. II 95(1):7–33. https://
doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2017-002
Konwar M, Das SK, Deshpande SM, Chakravarty K, Goswami BN
(2014) Microphysics of clouds and rain over the Western Ghat.
J Geophys Res Atmos 119(10):6140–6159. https://doi.org/10.1002/
2014JD021606
Krishnamurti TN, Surgi N (1987) Observational aspects of summer
monsoon. In: Chang C-P, Krishnamurti TN (eds) Chapter in book
Monsoon meteorology. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 3–25
Krishnan R, Ramanathan V (2002) Evidence of surface cooling from
absorbing aerosols. Geophys Res Lett 29:2002GL014687, 54 (1–4)
Krishnan R, Sabin TP, Ayantika DC, Kitoh A, Sugi M, Murakami H,
Turner AG, Slingo JM, Rajendran K (2013) Will the South Asian
monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further? Clim Dyn
40:187–211
Krishnan R, Sabin TP, Vellore R, Mujumdar M, Sanjay J,
Goswami BN, Hourdin F, Dufresne J-L, Terray P (2016) Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon
hydroclimate in a warming world. Clim Dyn 47:1007–1027.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2886-5
Krishnan R, Sabin TP, Madhura RK, Vellore RK, Mujumdar M,
Sanjay J, Nayak S, Rajeevan M (2019a) Non-monsoonal precipitation response over the western Himalayas to climate change.
Clim Dyn 52:4091–4109
Krishnan R et al (2019b) Unravelling climate change in the Hindu Kush
Himalaya: rapid warming in the mountains and increasing extremes.
In: Wester P, Mishra A, Mukherji A, Shrestha A (eds) The Hindu
Kush himalaya assessment. Springer, Cham
Kulkarni A (2012) Weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in
warming environment. Theoret Appl Climatol 109:447–459
Kulkarni AV, Karyakarte Y (2014) Observed changes in Himalayan
glaciers. Curr Sci 106(2):237–244
Liu X, Cheng Z, Yan L et al (2009) Elevation dependency of recent
and future minimum surface air temperature trends in the
Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings Glob. Planet Change
68:164–174
Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW, Shrestha AB, Bierkens MFP (2014)
Consistent increase in High Asia’s runoff due to increasing glacier
melt and precipitation. Nat Clim Chang 4:587–592. https://doi.org/
10.1038/nclimate2237
Lutz AF, terMaat HW, Wijngaard RR et al (2019) South Asian river
basins in a 1.5 °C warmer world. Reg Environ Chang 19:833–847.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1433-4
Marcott SA, Shakun JD, Clark PU, Mix AC (2013) A reconstruction of
regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years. Science
339(6124):1198–1201. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1228026
Meehl GA, Boer GJ, Covey C, Latif M, Stouffer RJ (2000) The coupled
model intercomparison project (CMIP). Bull Amer Meteor Soc
81:313–318
Meehl GA, Hibbard KA (2007) A strategy for climate change
stabilization experiments with AOGCMS and ESMS. WCRP
Informal Rep. 3/2007, ICPO Publ. 112, IGBP Rep. 57, 35 pp
Menon A, Levermann A, Schewe J (2013) Enhanced future variability
during India’s rainy season. GRL 40:3242–3247
Mukherjee S, Aadhar S, Stone D, Mishra V (2018) Increase in extreme
precipitation events under anthropogenic warming in India. Weather
Clim Extremes 20:45–53
Mukhopadhyay P, Jaswal A, Deshpande M (2017) In: Rajeevan M,
Nayak S (eds) Observed climate variability and change over the
Indian region. Springer, Berlin, pp 129–144
Myhre G, Shindell D, Bréon F-M, Collins W, Fuglestvedt J, Huang J,
Koch D, Lamarque J-F, Lee D, Mendoza B, Nakajima T,
Robock A, Stephens G, Takemura T, Zhang H (2013) Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing. In: Stocker TF, Qin D,
Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y,
Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical
science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth
assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate
change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Nair VS, Babu SS, Manoj MR, Moorthy KK, Chin M (2016) Direct
radiative effects of aerosols over South Asia from observations and
modeling. Clim Dyn 49:1411–1428. https://doi.org/10.1007/
s00382-016-3384-0
O’Neill BC et al (2017) The roads ahead: narratives for shared
socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st
century. Glob Environ Change 42:169–180. https://doi.org/10.1016/
j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004
Otto FEL, Frame DJ, Otto A, Allen MR (2015) Embracing uncertainty
in climate change policy. Nat Clim Change 5:1–5. https://doi.org/
10.1038/nclimate2716
Pant GB, Parthasarathy B (1981) Some aspects of an association
between the Southern Oscillation and Indian summer monsoon.
Arch Meteor Geophys Biokl B29:245–252
Rajeevan M, Unnikrishnan CK, Bhate J, Niranjan Kumar K,
Sreekala PP (2012) Northeast monsoon over India. Meteorol Appl
19:226–236
Rajendran K, Kitoh A (2008) Indian summer monsoon in future climate
projection by a super high-resolution global model. Curr Sci 95
(11):1560–1569
18
R. Krishnan et al.