(1951–2014), warming exceeding 0.5 °C over most part of
the country. The warming pattern is projected to enhance in
the far future, with warming level exceeding 3 °C as can be
seen from the SSP5-8.5 scenario (Fig. 1.4).
Spatial patterns of change in observed and simulated
summer monsoon (JJAS) precipitation for the period 1951–
2014 are shown in Fig. 1.5. The precipitation pattern shows
large spatial variability over the tropical regions. It is interesting to note that the IITM-ESM captures the observed
decrease in summer monsoon precipitation over Central
India during 1951–2014. A north–south pattern of monsoon
rainfall decrease over Central India and an increase over
the equatorial Indian Ocean is seen in the IITM-ESM
simulation. The observed weakening of the southwest
summer monsoon post-1950s has been attributed to
anthropogenic aerosol forcing, regional land use land cover
changes as well as rapid warming of the equatorial Indian
Ocean SST (Krishnan et al. 2016).
The global mean precipitation is projected to increase
with an increase in global mean temperature. Large-scale
increase in precipitation is seen over the tropical regions,
especially over the monsoon domains and over the Indian
landmass in the far future under SSP5-8.5 scenario
(Fig. 1.5). Quantitiative estimates of global and regional
changes in temperature and precipitation for the near
and far future, based on the IITM-ESM and other CMIP6
Fig. 1.3 Time series of CMIP6 simulations of the globally averaged
annual mean a surface air temperature (°C), b precipitation (mm day
−1
)
and c thermosteric sea level (TSL; m). Plotted are the anomalies with
respect to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900) for the historical
period (black) and future projections following the SSP2-4.5 (blue) and
SSP5-8.5 (red) scenarios. Numbers denote the number of models
selected for each variable. Solid lines represent the IITM-ESM
simulations and the shading represents the range across the models
1 Introduction to Climate Change Over the Indian Region
11
the country. The warming pattern is projected to enhance in
the far future, with warming level exceeding 3 °C as can be
seen from the SSP5-8.5 scenario (Fig. 1.4).
Spatial patterns of change in observed and simulated
summer monsoon (JJAS) precipitation for the period 1951–
2014 are shown in Fig. 1.5. The precipitation pattern shows
large spatial variability over the tropical regions. It is interesting to note that the IITM-ESM captures the observed
decrease in summer monsoon precipitation over Central
India during 1951–2014. A north–south pattern of monsoon
rainfall decrease over Central India and an increase over
the equatorial Indian Ocean is seen in the IITM-ESM
simulation. The observed weakening of the southwest
summer monsoon post-1950s has been attributed to
anthropogenic aerosol forcing, regional land use land cover
changes as well as rapid warming of the equatorial Indian
Ocean SST (Krishnan et al. 2016).
The global mean precipitation is projected to increase
with an increase in global mean temperature. Large-scale
increase in precipitation is seen over the tropical regions,
especially over the monsoon domains and over the Indian
landmass in the far future under SSP5-8.5 scenario
(Fig. 1.5). Quantitiative estimates of global and regional
changes in temperature and precipitation for the near
and far future, based on the IITM-ESM and other CMIP6
Fig. 1.3 Time series of CMIP6 simulations of the globally averaged
annual mean a surface air temperature (°C), b precipitation (mm day
−1
)
and c thermosteric sea level (TSL; m). Plotted are the anomalies with
respect to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900) for the historical
period (black) and future projections following the SSP2-4.5 (blue) and
SSP5-8.5 (red) scenarios. Numbers denote the number of models
selected for each variable. Solid lines represent the IITM-ESM
simulations and the shading represents the range across the models
1 Introduction to Climate Change Over the Indian Region
11