8.5 Summary
A status on the current understanding of the changes in
high-impact, in terms of socio-economic implications,
stormy weather phenomena pertinent to the Indian subcontinent [i.e., severe category tropical cyclonic storms in the
NIO region, thunderstorms and associated dust storms,
short-span intense rain-producing cloudbursts] is documented in this chapter. Considerable progress has been
generally realized in the understanding of changes in TC
activity over the global ocean basins (see Walsh et al. 2016;
Knutson et al. 2010a, 2019a, b), while a clear understanding
of the reasoning behind the changes in NIO TC activity and
extreme rain or convective storm occurrences over the
Indian subcontinent is still rudimentary. Observed TC
changes during the 1951–2018 (relative to pre-1950 period)
period indicate that there is a rise in severe category TCs by
49% (relative to pre-1950 period) in the BOB region, and
52% in the AS region. There is also a marked rise of these
storms in the NIO basin by 105% during the post-monsoon
(October–December) season. There is a significant decline in
the annual frequency of TCs in the NIO basin, i.e., −0.23 per
decade for the entire NIO, and −0.26 per decade for the
BOB. Observations also indicate a rising trend in VSCS
(category 4 and above TC; see Table 8.1) in the NIO region
during the 2000–2018 period which is apparently controlled
by the post-monsoon VSCS trend (+0.86 per decade) from
BOB. Another growing concern is the rising number and
severe TCs in the AS region in the recent years—i.e., 6 out
of 11 TCs formed in AS reached greater severity during the
2000–2018 period (see Table 8.2). Based on the investigations available till date for reasoning behind this rise, there is
a consensus of medium confidence in attributing the
observed rise in the AS post-monsoon TCs to
human-induced SST warming (Murakami et al. 2017;
Knutson et al. 2019a, b).
Localized convective storms such as thunderstorms over
the Indian subcontinent indicate a declining frequency by
34% in the post-1980 period which is suggestively attributed
to reductions in rainfall activity and in the moisture amount
due to a fall in the frequency of monsoon depressions, and
enhanced intensities of natural variability climate drivers.
Although short-lived cloudburst and mini-cloudburst
occurrences generally indicate a decline in frequency in
the recent decades, it is observed that there is a significant
increase in these events along the Himalayan foothills (1 per
decade) and west coast of India (5 per decade).
References
Anthes RA (1982) Tropical cyclones: their evolution, structure and
effects. Meteorological monograph No. 41. American Meteorological Society, 208 pp
Anthes RA et al (2006) Comments on hurricanes and global warming—
potential linkages and consequences. Bull Am Met Soc 87:623–628
Balaguru K, Taraphdar S, Leung LR, Foltz GR (2014) Increase in the
intensity of postmonsoon Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones. Geophys
Res Lett 41:3594–3601
Balaji M, Chakraborty A, Mandal M (2018) Changes in tropical
cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–
2014). Int J Climatol 38:2819–2837
Bender MA et al (2010) Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming of
the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science 327:454–458
Bengtsson L et al (2007) How may tropical cyclones change in a
warmer climate? Tellus 59:539–561
Bhan SC, Paul S, Kharbanda KL (2004) Cloudbursts in Himachal
Pradesh. Mausam 55:712–713
Bhardwaj P, Singh O (2018) Spatial and temporal analysis of
thunderstorm and rainfall activity over India. Atmósfera 31:255–
284
Bhardwaj P, Singh O, Kumar D (2017) Spatial and temporal variations
in thunderstorm casualties over India. Singap J Trop Geogr 38:293–
312
Bohra AK et al (2006) Heavy rainfall episode over Mumbai on 26 July
2005: assessment of NWP guidance. Curr Sci 90:1188–1194
Chakrabarty KK, Nath AK, Sengupta S (2007) Nor’wester over West
Bengal and comfortability. Mausam 58:177–188
Chinchole PS, Mohapatra M (2017) Some characteristics of translational speed of cyclonic disturbances over North Indian ocean in
recent years. In: Tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian
Ocean. Springer, Cham, pp 165–179
Danard MTS, Murty TS (1989) Tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal
and CO 2 warming. Nat Hazards 2:387–390
Das PK (2015a) Global warming, glacial lakes and cloud burst events
in Garhwal-Kumaon Himalaya: A hypothetical analysis. Int J Env
Sci 5:697
Das Y (2015b) Some aspects of thunderstorm over India during
pre-monsoon season: a preliminary report. J Geosci Geomat
3:68–78
Das S, Ashrit R, Moncrieff MW (2006) Simulation of a Himalayan
cloudburst event. J Earth Syst Sci 115:299–313
De US, Dube RK, Rao GP (2005) Extreme weather events over India in
the last 100 years. J Ind Geophys Union 9:173–187
Deo AA, Ganer DW (2014) Tropical cyclone activity over the Indian
Ocean in the warmer climate. In: Mohanty UC et al (eds) Monitoring
and prediction of tropical cyclones in the indian ocean and climate
change, pp 72–80. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7720-0_7
Deshpande NR, Kothawale DR, Kumar V, Kulkarni JR (2018)
Statistical characteristics of cloud burst and mini-cloud burst events
during monsoon season in India. Int J Climatol 38:4172–4188
Dimri AP et al (2017) Cloudbursts in Indian Himalayas: a review.
Earth-sci rev 168:1–23
Doswell CA (2001) Severe convective storms—an overview. Severe
convective storms. American Meteorological Society, Boston,
pp 1–26
8 Extreme Storms
169
A status on the current understanding of the changes in
high-impact, in terms of socio-economic implications,
stormy weather phenomena pertinent to the Indian subcontinent [i.e., severe category tropical cyclonic storms in the
NIO region, thunderstorms and associated dust storms,
short-span intense rain-producing cloudbursts] is documented in this chapter. Considerable progress has been
generally realized in the understanding of changes in TC
activity over the global ocean basins (see Walsh et al. 2016;
Knutson et al. 2010a, 2019a, b), while a clear understanding
of the reasoning behind the changes in NIO TC activity and
extreme rain or convective storm occurrences over the
Indian subcontinent is still rudimentary. Observed TC
changes during the 1951–2018 (relative to pre-1950 period)
period indicate that there is a rise in severe category TCs by
49% (relative to pre-1950 period) in the BOB region, and
52% in the AS region. There is also a marked rise of these
storms in the NIO basin by 105% during the post-monsoon
(October–December) season. There is a significant decline in
the annual frequency of TCs in the NIO basin, i.e., −0.23 per
decade for the entire NIO, and −0.26 per decade for the
BOB. Observations also indicate a rising trend in VSCS
(category 4 and above TC; see Table 8.1) in the NIO region
during the 2000–2018 period which is apparently controlled
by the post-monsoon VSCS trend (+0.86 per decade) from
BOB. Another growing concern is the rising number and
severe TCs in the AS region in the recent years—i.e., 6 out
of 11 TCs formed in AS reached greater severity during the
2000–2018 period (see Table 8.2). Based on the investigations available till date for reasoning behind this rise, there is
a consensus of medium confidence in attributing the
observed rise in the AS post-monsoon TCs to
human-induced SST warming (Murakami et al. 2017;
Knutson et al. 2019a, b).
Localized convective storms such as thunderstorms over
the Indian subcontinent indicate a declining frequency by
34% in the post-1980 period which is suggestively attributed
to reductions in rainfall activity and in the moisture amount
due to a fall in the frequency of monsoon depressions, and
enhanced intensities of natural variability climate drivers.
Although short-lived cloudburst and mini-cloudburst
occurrences generally indicate a decline in frequency in
the recent decades, it is observed that there is a significant
increase in these events along the Himalayan foothills (1 per
decade) and west coast of India (5 per decade).
References
Anthes RA (1982) Tropical cyclones: their evolution, structure and
effects. Meteorological monograph No. 41. American Meteorological Society, 208 pp
Anthes RA et al (2006) Comments on hurricanes and global warming—
potential linkages and consequences. Bull Am Met Soc 87:623–628
Balaguru K, Taraphdar S, Leung LR, Foltz GR (2014) Increase in the
intensity of postmonsoon Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones. Geophys
Res Lett 41:3594–3601
Balaji M, Chakraborty A, Mandal M (2018) Changes in tropical
cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–
2014). Int J Climatol 38:2819–2837
Bender MA et al (2010) Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming of
the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science 327:454–458
Bengtsson L et al (2007) How may tropical cyclones change in a
warmer climate? Tellus 59:539–561
Bhan SC, Paul S, Kharbanda KL (2004) Cloudbursts in Himachal
Pradesh. Mausam 55:712–713
Bhardwaj P, Singh O (2018) Spatial and temporal analysis of
thunderstorm and rainfall activity over India. Atmósfera 31:255–
284
Bhardwaj P, Singh O, Kumar D (2017) Spatial and temporal variations
in thunderstorm casualties over India. Singap J Trop Geogr 38:293–
312
Bohra AK et al (2006) Heavy rainfall episode over Mumbai on 26 July
2005: assessment of NWP guidance. Curr Sci 90:1188–1194
Chakrabarty KK, Nath AK, Sengupta S (2007) Nor’wester over West
Bengal and comfortability. Mausam 58:177–188
Chinchole PS, Mohapatra M (2017) Some characteristics of translational speed of cyclonic disturbances over North Indian ocean in
recent years. In: Tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian
Ocean. Springer, Cham, pp 165–179
Danard MTS, Murty TS (1989) Tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal
and CO 2 warming. Nat Hazards 2:387–390
Das PK (2015a) Global warming, glacial lakes and cloud burst events
in Garhwal-Kumaon Himalaya: A hypothetical analysis. Int J Env
Sci 5:697
Das Y (2015b) Some aspects of thunderstorm over India during
pre-monsoon season: a preliminary report. J Geosci Geomat
3:68–78
Das S, Ashrit R, Moncrieff MW (2006) Simulation of a Himalayan
cloudburst event. J Earth Syst Sci 115:299–313
De US, Dube RK, Rao GP (2005) Extreme weather events over India in
the last 100 years. J Ind Geophys Union 9:173–187
Deo AA, Ganer DW (2014) Tropical cyclone activity over the Indian
Ocean in the warmer climate. In: Mohanty UC et al (eds) Monitoring
and prediction of tropical cyclones in the indian ocean and climate
change, pp 72–80. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7720-0_7
Deshpande NR, Kothawale DR, Kumar V, Kulkarni JR (2018)
Statistical characteristics of cloud burst and mini-cloud burst events
during monsoon season in India. Int J Climatol 38:4172–4188
Dimri AP et al (2017) Cloudbursts in Indian Himalayas: a review.
Earth-sci rev 168:1–23
Doswell CA (2001) Severe convective storms—an overview. Severe
convective storms. American Meteorological Society, Boston,
pp 1–26
8 Extreme Storms
169