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scenario for Vision 2050 is actually underway in Japan. In recent years, the economy has been growing only slightly, but nevertheless continues to grow. Comparing
2003 with 2015, we see that the GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.65% while energy
consumption declined at an annual rate of 1.6%.
Electricity has presented a picture that is slightly different from that of energy as
a whole. The work of service industries takes place mainly in offices rather than
factories, and electricity is what it uses. The share of energy that electric power
accounts for has been increasing. Currently, electricity accounts for 43% of energy
consumption. As for demand, while the floor area of offices has continued to grow,
it is gradually reaching a peak. Furthermore, energy saving at office buildings is
making strides similar to those in the home. Under these conditions, while electricity use increased largely in unison with the GDP until around 2005, it peaked around
2006 and 2007 and then began to decline.
In Japan today, we are approaching saturated demand for those man-made
objects that consume large amounts of energy like factories, automobiles, homes,
and buildings, and when they are updated, we are improving their energy efficiency.
As a result, Japan is entering an age in which energy consumption falls even as its
economy grows.
Japan has been leading the world in translating into reality the task of how to
address the issue of simultaneously achieving the economic growth required so that
all the world’s peoples can lead affluent lifestyles while dealing with the need to cut
down on CO 2 -emitting energy sources.
Thus, if we look comprehensively at the tracks that Japan has laid down to date,
we see it has trod the path of a leading country in resolving societal problems aimed
at in Vision 2050. However, it is at the mercy of the nuclear power problem, and its
energy policy at present is such that it is difficult to see where it should put its focus.
It should quickly free itself from the nuclear yoke, and continue to take the lead as
it has already driven the world in the area of energy efficiency.
2.3.2 Certainly Japan Led the World
Figure 2.15 shows the current size of China’s GDP and the amount of energy it
consumes as well as future projects, as the IEA announced in 2016. Comparing this
to Fig. 2.14, it is plain that China should adopt a course in the future that follows the
course that Japan has already set down.
China’s GDP and energy consumption have grown in the same way so far. This
is the heavy and chemical industry sector-centered growth model that had prevailed
in Japan until 1973. The GDP will grow by a factor of 3 times by 2040, but growth
in energy consumption will stop at 30%. Japan has seen its GDP grow by 2.5 times
from 1973 until now, but energy consumption grew only 24%. The fact is, China
should do what Japan has been doing for the past 40 years, and likely will. However,
this is a merely a matter of following the example of the past. Given that Japan is
going to achieve further economic growth and reductions in energy consumption in
2.3 Vision 2050 as a Happy Vision
scenario for Vision 2050 is actually underway in Japan. In recent years, the economy has been growing only slightly, but nevertheless continues to grow. Comparing
2003 with 2015, we see that the GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.65% while energy
consumption declined at an annual rate of 1.6%.
Electricity has presented a picture that is slightly different from that of energy as
a whole. The work of service industries takes place mainly in offices rather than
factories, and electricity is what it uses. The share of energy that electric power
accounts for has been increasing. Currently, electricity accounts for 43% of energy
consumption. As for demand, while the floor area of offices has continued to grow,
it is gradually reaching a peak. Furthermore, energy saving at office buildings is
making strides similar to those in the home. Under these conditions, while electricity use increased largely in unison with the GDP until around 2005, it peaked around
2006 and 2007 and then began to decline.
In Japan today, we are approaching saturated demand for those man-made
objects that consume large amounts of energy like factories, automobiles, homes,
and buildings, and when they are updated, we are improving their energy efficiency.
As a result, Japan is entering an age in which energy consumption falls even as its
economy grows.
Japan has been leading the world in translating into reality the task of how to
address the issue of simultaneously achieving the economic growth required so that
all the world’s peoples can lead affluent lifestyles while dealing with the need to cut
down on CO 2 -emitting energy sources.
Thus, if we look comprehensively at the tracks that Japan has laid down to date,
we see it has trod the path of a leading country in resolving societal problems aimed
at in Vision 2050. However, it is at the mercy of the nuclear power problem, and its
energy policy at present is such that it is difficult to see where it should put its focus.
It should quickly free itself from the nuclear yoke, and continue to take the lead as
it has already driven the world in the area of energy efficiency.
2.3.2 Certainly Japan Led the World
Figure 2.15 shows the current size of China’s GDP and the amount of energy it
consumes as well as future projects, as the IEA announced in 2016. Comparing this
to Fig. 2.14, it is plain that China should adopt a course in the future that follows the
course that Japan has already set down.
China’s GDP and energy consumption have grown in the same way so far. This
is the heavy and chemical industry sector-centered growth model that had prevailed
in Japan until 1973. The GDP will grow by a factor of 3 times by 2040, but growth
in energy consumption will stop at 30%. Japan has seen its GDP grow by 2.5 times
from 1973 until now, but energy consumption grew only 24%. The fact is, China
should do what Japan has been doing for the past 40 years, and likely will. However,
this is a merely a matter of following the example of the past. Given that Japan is
going to achieve further economic growth and reductions in energy consumption in
2.3 Vision 2050 as a Happy Vision