85
© The Author(s) 2018
H. Komiyama, K. Yamada, New Vision 2050, Science for Sustainable Societies,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-56623-6_5
Chapter 5
Low-Carbon Society in 2050
5.1 Low Carbon Power Supply Systems in 2050
5.1.1 Means to Achieve Low Carbonization
At COP 21, Japan set a long-term goal of reducing CO 2 emissions by 80% of 2013
levels by 2050. As we have seen in Chap. 4, we will try to reduce carbon from a
range of angles, but in order to achieve the high target of 80% reduction, we must
also optimize the configuration of the power supply used for power generation.
The following methods can be considered to significantly reduce CO 2 emissions
from the power supply sector:
1. Decrease the amount of power generation.
2. Increase power generation efficiency.
3. Increase the ratio of power generation by natural gas fuel, which has low CO 2
emissions per calorific value.
4. Add CCS to fossil fuel power generation.
5. Increase the proportion of power generation by renewable energy.
6. Increase the proportion of nuclear power generation.
Let’s look at these in order. With regard to the amount of electricity generated
(1), measures such as switching to highly efficient electric appliances has progressed after the Great East Japan Earthquake, and it has already declined by about
10%. The annual power generation amount is within 1000 TWh, and this trend will
continue in the future. If the annual rate drops by 1%, the consumption of electricity
will be about 650 TWh per year in 2050, 30% lower than the current rate. For the
direct use of heat and components of fossil fuels (e.g., automobiles and hot water
supply), replacement with electricity will continue in order to save energy, so the
demand will increase, but we believe that annual amount of electricity generated
will not exceed 800 TWh.
© The Author(s) 2018
H. Komiyama, K. Yamada, New Vision 2050, Science for Sustainable Societies,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-56623-6_5
Chapter 5
Low-Carbon Society in 2050
5.1 Low Carbon Power Supply Systems in 2050
5.1.1 Means to Achieve Low Carbonization
At COP 21, Japan set a long-term goal of reducing CO 2 emissions by 80% of 2013
levels by 2050. As we have seen in Chap. 4, we will try to reduce carbon from a
range of angles, but in order to achieve the high target of 80% reduction, we must
also optimize the configuration of the power supply used for power generation.
The following methods can be considered to significantly reduce CO 2 emissions
from the power supply sector:
1. Decrease the amount of power generation.
2. Increase power generation efficiency.
3. Increase the ratio of power generation by natural gas fuel, which has low CO 2
emissions per calorific value.
4. Add CCS to fossil fuel power generation.
5. Increase the proportion of power generation by renewable energy.
6. Increase the proportion of nuclear power generation.
Let’s look at these in order. With regard to the amount of electricity generated
(1), measures such as switching to highly efficient electric appliances has progressed after the Great East Japan Earthquake, and it has already declined by about
10%. The annual power generation amount is within 1000 TWh, and this trend will
continue in the future. If the annual rate drops by 1%, the consumption of electricity
will be about 650 TWh per year in 2050, 30% lower than the current rate. For the
direct use of heat and components of fossil fuels (e.g., automobiles and hot water
supply), replacement with electricity will continue in order to save energy, so the
demand will increase, but we believe that annual amount of electricity generated
will not exceed 800 TWh.