47
Having received closer attention from both the academic and nonacademic, practical fields, however, the BC methods have the following shortcomings that have not
yet been explored (Vergragt and Quist 2011; Kishita et al. 2017). (1) While BC
scenario-making has mostly been carried out by relevant experts and professionals,
involving lay persons in its process has not yet been researched to a great extent
(Kishita et al. 2016; McLellan et al. 2017). Considering the fact that any processes
relating to transitioning toward sustainable cities are direct and indirect consequences of collective decisions made by a wide array of stakeholders, nonexperts
and nonprofessionals should also take initiatives in BC scenarios (Rotmans et al.
2000; Kasemir et al. 2003; Albert 2008; Umeda 2008; McLellan et al. 2017;
Frantzeskaki et al. 2018). (2) The resulted BC scenarios are not yet formally or
effectively implemented in practice and not having as much impact as already existing policies and measures. That is partly because it has been difficult to embed such
participatory BC scenario-making into ongoing, conventional policy processes
(Soria-Lara and Banister 2017; Kishita et al. 2016).
4.1.2 Analytical Perspectives and Research Questions
In order to overcome such shortcomings, researchers must take into consideration
the fact that envisioning sustainability of future cities inevitably demands to embrace
divergent interests, preferences, and knowledges of various stakeholders (Umeda
2008). That is not only because, as most often said in the field of sustainable science, the concept of sustainability itself reflects a bundle of multiple value systems
(Kishita et al. 2010), but also because any cities have their own societal functioning
that is of multifaceted configurations working in an interrelated, complementary
manner (Hodson et al. 2017). In this regard, letting the general public participate in
BC scenario-making certainly makes it more plausible to consider more diverged
pluralistic opinions and relevant local knowledge to emerge and be expressed
throughout the process (McLellan et al. 2017). After all, the citizens have an ultimate stake and say in the direction of their own future cities, and without ensuring
their credible commitments and continuous cooperation in the longer term, there
will be no effective endeavor toward urban sustainability transition. Also, the recent
arguments on SDGs and biodiversity tend to view participatory approach as essential to empower grassroots citizens whose knowledge and experiences are key
enabling elements for successful future visioning (Kanie 2017).
At the same time, however, citizen participatory processes inevitably increase
the difficulties to mediate interests of individuals, especially when these interests
are not bucked by rational reasoning or public-minded causes. In democratic
nations, it has indeed been noted that citizens rather easily follow the majority,
occasionally being swallowed up by a tide of enthusiasm. Note also that this type of
skepticism, sometimes called “populism,” has constantly been associated with more
direct, mass participatory democracy. Though anecdotal, a Japanese local administrative official we once spoke with said: “Most of the time, citizens just demand
what they want only for themselves.”
4 The Use of Backcasting to Promote Urban Transformation to Sustainability…
Having received closer attention from both the academic and nonacademic, practical fields, however, the BC methods have the following shortcomings that have not
yet been explored (Vergragt and Quist 2011; Kishita et al. 2017). (1) While BC
scenario-making has mostly been carried out by relevant experts and professionals,
involving lay persons in its process has not yet been researched to a great extent
(Kishita et al. 2016; McLellan et al. 2017). Considering the fact that any processes
relating to transitioning toward sustainable cities are direct and indirect consequences of collective decisions made by a wide array of stakeholders, nonexperts
and nonprofessionals should also take initiatives in BC scenarios (Rotmans et al.
2000; Kasemir et al. 2003; Albert 2008; Umeda 2008; McLellan et al. 2017;
Frantzeskaki et al. 2018). (2) The resulted BC scenarios are not yet formally or
effectively implemented in practice and not having as much impact as already existing policies and measures. That is partly because it has been difficult to embed such
participatory BC scenario-making into ongoing, conventional policy processes
(Soria-Lara and Banister 2017; Kishita et al. 2016).
4.1.2 Analytical Perspectives and Research Questions
In order to overcome such shortcomings, researchers must take into consideration
the fact that envisioning sustainability of future cities inevitably demands to embrace
divergent interests, preferences, and knowledges of various stakeholders (Umeda
2008). That is not only because, as most often said in the field of sustainable science, the concept of sustainability itself reflects a bundle of multiple value systems
(Kishita et al. 2010), but also because any cities have their own societal functioning
that is of multifaceted configurations working in an interrelated, complementary
manner (Hodson et al. 2017). In this regard, letting the general public participate in
BC scenario-making certainly makes it more plausible to consider more diverged
pluralistic opinions and relevant local knowledge to emerge and be expressed
throughout the process (McLellan et al. 2017). After all, the citizens have an ultimate stake and say in the direction of their own future cities, and without ensuring
their credible commitments and continuous cooperation in the longer term, there
will be no effective endeavor toward urban sustainability transition. Also, the recent
arguments on SDGs and biodiversity tend to view participatory approach as essential to empower grassroots citizens whose knowledge and experiences are key
enabling elements for successful future visioning (Kanie 2017).
At the same time, however, citizen participatory processes inevitably increase
the difficulties to mediate interests of individuals, especially when these interests
are not bucked by rational reasoning or public-minded causes. In democratic
nations, it has indeed been noted that citizens rather easily follow the majority,
occasionally being swallowed up by a tide of enthusiasm. Note also that this type of
skepticism, sometimes called “populism,” has constantly been associated with more
direct, mass participatory democracy. Though anecdotal, a Japanese local administrative official we once spoke with said: “Most of the time, citizens just demand
what they want only for themselves.”
4 The Use of Backcasting to Promote Urban Transformation to Sustainability…