46
nomic and ecological elements was incorporated, they were yet founded upon a
fairly good degree of logically coherent means-end based structures. The chapter
then considers the meaning of such a balance for backcasting scenario-making with
implications for further research agenda and future policy-making.
Keywords Urban transition · Future visions · Backcasting scenario · Participatory
approach · Citizen dialogue · Sustainable society scenario (3S) simulator
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 Background Issues of This Study
In recent years, it has become increasingly evident that various aspects of contemporary cities place too high a burden on the environment. Population, industry, commerce, energy, food consumption, and culture are some of the factors leading to rapid
concentrations in urban areas in both developed and developing countries (Wolfram
and Frantzeskaki 2016). Therefore, like Bulkeley and Betsill (2003) and others
(Hodson and Marvin 2010; Loorbach et al. 2016; Hodson et al. 2017; Frantzeskaki
et al. 2018) have stated, urban sustainability transitions have emerged as an urgent
policy agenda concerning possibilities for making fundamental transformative
changes on this current trend to keep cities from following unsustainable pathways.
In this regard, since the end of the 1990s, relevant disciplines (e.g., sustainability
science, socio-engineering, sustainability transitions, and so forth) have argued the
merits of envisioning cities’ sustainable futures and contemplating possible pathways toward realizing such futures (Gallopin et al. 1997; Matsuoka et al. 2001;
Glenn and The Future Groups International 2005). Such interests in scenariomaking also extend to a wide range of issues including climate change, biodiversity,
sustainable development goals (SDGs), and landscape approaches such as Satoyama
and Satoumi, which promote socio-ecological production landscape and seascapes
(Tress and Tress 2003; Carpenter et al. 2005; International Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) 2007; Ten Brink et al. 2010; Kanie 2017).
Among those scenario-makings, many now regard a design method (and also a
way of thinking) called “backcasting” (BC), to be particularly promising (Robinson
1990; Dreborg 1996; Mander et al. 2008; Nishioka 2008; Kok et al. 2011; Kishita
et al. 2016). BC scenario-making is defined and understood as a series of processes
where stakeholders: (1) first craft visions of their ideal and desirable cities whose
functioning standards and conditions are to be achieved in a relatively distant future
(e.g., the year 2050 or beyond) and (2) think through pathways chronologically
backward from the future to the current period in terms of what must be done to
realize such visions.
K. Aoki et al.
nomic and ecological elements was incorporated, they were yet founded upon a
fairly good degree of logically coherent means-end based structures. The chapter
then considers the meaning of such a balance for backcasting scenario-making with
implications for further research agenda and future policy-making.
Keywords Urban transition · Future visions · Backcasting scenario · Participatory
approach · Citizen dialogue · Sustainable society scenario (3S) simulator
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 Background Issues of This Study
In recent years, it has become increasingly evident that various aspects of contemporary cities place too high a burden on the environment. Population, industry, commerce, energy, food consumption, and culture are some of the factors leading to rapid
concentrations in urban areas in both developed and developing countries (Wolfram
and Frantzeskaki 2016). Therefore, like Bulkeley and Betsill (2003) and others
(Hodson and Marvin 2010; Loorbach et al. 2016; Hodson et al. 2017; Frantzeskaki
et al. 2018) have stated, urban sustainability transitions have emerged as an urgent
policy agenda concerning possibilities for making fundamental transformative
changes on this current trend to keep cities from following unsustainable pathways.
In this regard, since the end of the 1990s, relevant disciplines (e.g., sustainability
science, socio-engineering, sustainability transitions, and so forth) have argued the
merits of envisioning cities’ sustainable futures and contemplating possible pathways toward realizing such futures (Gallopin et al. 1997; Matsuoka et al. 2001;
Glenn and The Future Groups International 2005). Such interests in scenariomaking also extend to a wide range of issues including climate change, biodiversity,
sustainable development goals (SDGs), and landscape approaches such as Satoyama
and Satoumi, which promote socio-ecological production landscape and seascapes
(Tress and Tress 2003; Carpenter et al. 2005; International Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) 2007; Ten Brink et al. 2010; Kanie 2017).
Among those scenario-makings, many now regard a design method (and also a
way of thinking) called “backcasting” (BC), to be particularly promising (Robinson
1990; Dreborg 1996; Mander et al. 2008; Nishioka 2008; Kok et al. 2011; Kishita
et al. 2016). BC scenario-making is defined and understood as a series of processes
where stakeholders: (1) first craft visions of their ideal and desirable cities whose
functioning standards and conditions are to be achieved in a relatively distant future
(e.g., the year 2050 or beyond) and (2) think through pathways chronologically
backward from the future to the current period in terms of what must be done to
realize such visions.
K. Aoki et al.