48
We then must ask how such risk can be reduced and governed to be able to generate more participatory BC scenario-making with a satisfactory level of rational and
soundness (van der Heijden 2005) and to mobilize such scenarios as a practical
policy tool for developing cities’ sustainable futures, which indicates a need for
deep transformative change from the current orientation (Kishita et al. 2018).
Therefore, in this chapter, we consider two potentially contrasting perspectives. One
is “divergence” found as diverged processes and opinions where such lay individuals as general citizens act as dispersed dots, expressing their pluralistic interests,
preferences, and knowledge in processes in an unconstrained manner. The other is
“convergence” found as converged outcomes and structures where such a diversified plurality is circumscribed and composed as connected dots, engendering in the
scenarios some form of converged context or bases normally found in practical
policy documents and texts. Between these two extremes, one may find a trade-off
relationship and this is the area on which we will focus to explore if any balance can
be upheld.
In answering this question, one should note that resolving the trade-off is
expected to be more difficult to achieve using the BC method, especially compared
to the more conventional method called “forecasting” (FC). FC has long been the
dominant practical method and is of incremental nature and thus more inclined to
path-dependency. Under FC methods, policies and measures tend to be planned and
made incrementally, allowing them to be based on and drawn from the current version. Thus, reliance on FC can more likely assure the generation of solutions which
are compatible to and stable with the ongoing functioning and configurations of the
societal system. Nevertheless, literature in sustainability science and sustainability
transitions has noted that path-dependency must be overcome for a society to solve
so-called “wicked problems” and be transformed into a more sustainable one.
Problems are considered wicked in the sense that they only worsen if we take the
ongoing functioning and configurations of the current societal system for granted
and let solutions be based on and drawn from them (Robinson 1990; Zellner and
Campbell 2015; Loorbach et al. 2016).
In contrast, BC is basically understood as methods that can more likely allow
greater proactive and pathbreaking changes to be sought and accommodated through
scenario-making. This means that the BC methods are more inclined to include
divergent ways of thinking, and involve processes where more creative, innovative
ideas and thoughts can emerge pluralistically and be expressed (Robinson 1990;
Dreborg 1996). In line with this understanding, one study even argues that under the
BC method, if it is for the sake of generating scenarios with more edgy, pathbreaking solutions, some degree of gap or incoherence that may be found in causal relationships between means and ends is not necessarily considered to be overly
problematic (Kishita et al. 2016). Thus, we explored whether and to what extent
such BC scenarios-making could be converged in a reasonably rationalized fashion
via engendering some form of sound, coherent bases and structures being attached
to the texts of the resulted scenarios (Albert 2008; Alcamo et al. 2008).
Below, the chapter articulates in the second section as to how we designed and
implemented a series of workshops (WS) where lay citizens participated and lays
K. Aoki et al.
We then must ask how such risk can be reduced and governed to be able to generate more participatory BC scenario-making with a satisfactory level of rational and
soundness (van der Heijden 2005) and to mobilize such scenarios as a practical
policy tool for developing cities’ sustainable futures, which indicates a need for
deep transformative change from the current orientation (Kishita et al. 2018).
Therefore, in this chapter, we consider two potentially contrasting perspectives. One
is “divergence” found as diverged processes and opinions where such lay individuals as general citizens act as dispersed dots, expressing their pluralistic interests,
preferences, and knowledge in processes in an unconstrained manner. The other is
“convergence” found as converged outcomes and structures where such a diversified plurality is circumscribed and composed as connected dots, engendering in the
scenarios some form of converged context or bases normally found in practical
policy documents and texts. Between these two extremes, one may find a trade-off
relationship and this is the area on which we will focus to explore if any balance can
be upheld.
In answering this question, one should note that resolving the trade-off is
expected to be more difficult to achieve using the BC method, especially compared
to the more conventional method called “forecasting” (FC). FC has long been the
dominant practical method and is of incremental nature and thus more inclined to
path-dependency. Under FC methods, policies and measures tend to be planned and
made incrementally, allowing them to be based on and drawn from the current version. Thus, reliance on FC can more likely assure the generation of solutions which
are compatible to and stable with the ongoing functioning and configurations of the
societal system. Nevertheless, literature in sustainability science and sustainability
transitions has noted that path-dependency must be overcome for a society to solve
so-called “wicked problems” and be transformed into a more sustainable one.
Problems are considered wicked in the sense that they only worsen if we take the
ongoing functioning and configurations of the current societal system for granted
and let solutions be based on and drawn from them (Robinson 1990; Zellner and
Campbell 2015; Loorbach et al. 2016).
In contrast, BC is basically understood as methods that can more likely allow
greater proactive and pathbreaking changes to be sought and accommodated through
scenario-making. This means that the BC methods are more inclined to include
divergent ways of thinking, and involve processes where more creative, innovative
ideas and thoughts can emerge pluralistically and be expressed (Robinson 1990;
Dreborg 1996). In line with this understanding, one study even argues that under the
BC method, if it is for the sake of generating scenarios with more edgy, pathbreaking solutions, some degree of gap or incoherence that may be found in causal relationships between means and ends is not necessarily considered to be overly
problematic (Kishita et al. 2016). Thus, we explored whether and to what extent
such BC scenarios-making could be converged in a reasonably rationalized fashion
via engendering some form of sound, coherent bases and structures being attached
to the texts of the resulted scenarios (Albert 2008; Alcamo et al. 2008).
Below, the chapter articulates in the second section as to how we designed and
implemented a series of workshops (WS) where lay citizens participated and lays
K. Aoki et al.