The new outlook describes the vision to satisfy the 3E targets. However, keeping
the nuclear fraction at 20–22% and expanding renewable energy in power grid are
considered to be big challenges, and political supports, technical advancement and
gaining the public understanding are indispensable.
3 Attempt for Energy Modeling Considering Nuclear
Accident
After the Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan recognizes itself as the country where
the energy planning considering the risk of nuclear disruption is required to enhance
the country’s energy security, experiencing the unprecedented increase in fossil
fuels imports to guarantee the loss of nuclear energy as explained so far. The
previous section introduces the official energy outlook of Japan to 2030. However,
generally speaking, those kinds of long-term projection do not consider the possible
disruptive events such as nuclear accidents and the subsequent suspension of all
nuclear power plants which causes the increase in power supply cost by massive
fuel import and deep electricity saving. Moreover, the huge cost of decontaminating
radioactive material needs to be considered in the case of nuclear accidents, based
on the Fukushima experience. In addition, after Fukushima, the government started
feed-in-tariff to promote renewable energy which has pushed up electricity price
and the Japanese power generation mix has shown the radical change. Thus, if the
nuclear accident is explicitly considered which possibly assigns severe
socio-economic burden, the long-term outlook of the country’s energy mix will take
the alternative pathway such that the deployment of nuclear energy is suppressed
and the alternative sources are more introduced against the nuclear accident.
Based on the author’s existing literature [18], this section attempts to discuss a
potential methodology of considering the nuclear accident in energy modeling
analysis. The literature [18] regards nuclear accidents as phenomena to cause a
shutdown of nuclear power supply and tries to specify the optimal operation of fuel
stockpiles, corresponding to SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in the U.S., as
control variables, considering the possible occurrence of a nuclear accident. Other
than nuclear accident, in the analysis, the closures of Hormuz Straits and Straits of
Malacca are explicitly considered as the extreme events, which cause the increase in
energy supply cost. The literature [18] attempts to formulate the mathematical
optimization which minimizes the country’s total energy system cost, adopting
stochastic dynamic programming, taking into account nuclear power shutdown. As
an estimation period, the literature assumes a short-term such as nearly one year
where the minimum unit of the estimation period is each day of the year, and
eventually energy supply capacity is assumed to be fixed variable. Through the
calculation, the optimal charge and discharge strategy of fuel stockpile is endogenously determined under the risk of the nuclear power supply disruption.
Considering Nuclear Accident …
107
the nuclear fraction at 20–22% and expanding renewable energy in power grid are
considered to be big challenges, and political supports, technical advancement and
gaining the public understanding are indispensable.
3 Attempt for Energy Modeling Considering Nuclear
Accident
After the Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan recognizes itself as the country where
the energy planning considering the risk of nuclear disruption is required to enhance
the country’s energy security, experiencing the unprecedented increase in fossil
fuels imports to guarantee the loss of nuclear energy as explained so far. The
previous section introduces the official energy outlook of Japan to 2030. However,
generally speaking, those kinds of long-term projection do not consider the possible
disruptive events such as nuclear accidents and the subsequent suspension of all
nuclear power plants which causes the increase in power supply cost by massive
fuel import and deep electricity saving. Moreover, the huge cost of decontaminating
radioactive material needs to be considered in the case of nuclear accidents, based
on the Fukushima experience. In addition, after Fukushima, the government started
feed-in-tariff to promote renewable energy which has pushed up electricity price
and the Japanese power generation mix has shown the radical change. Thus, if the
nuclear accident is explicitly considered which possibly assigns severe
socio-economic burden, the long-term outlook of the country’s energy mix will take
the alternative pathway such that the deployment of nuclear energy is suppressed
and the alternative sources are more introduced against the nuclear accident.
Based on the author’s existing literature [18], this section attempts to discuss a
potential methodology of considering the nuclear accident in energy modeling
analysis. The literature [18] regards nuclear accidents as phenomena to cause a
shutdown of nuclear power supply and tries to specify the optimal operation of fuel
stockpiles, corresponding to SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in the U.S., as
control variables, considering the possible occurrence of a nuclear accident. Other
than nuclear accident, in the analysis, the closures of Hormuz Straits and Straits of
Malacca are explicitly considered as the extreme events, which cause the increase in
energy supply cost. The literature [18] attempts to formulate the mathematical
optimization which minimizes the country’s total energy system cost, adopting
stochastic dynamic programming, taking into account nuclear power shutdown. As
an estimation period, the literature assumes a short-term such as nearly one year
where the minimum unit of the estimation period is each day of the year, and
eventually energy supply capacity is assumed to be fixed variable. Through the
calculation, the optimal charge and discharge strategy of fuel stockpile is endogenously determined under the risk of the nuclear power supply disruption.
Considering Nuclear Accident …
107