future energy mix. The Energy Plan assumes that carbon-free energy sources, that
is, nuclear and renewable, account for 70% in power generation mix in 2030. The
fraction of nuclear power itself amounts to more than 50% in the mix as indigenous
and emission-free sources. The Japanese government planned to build additional 14
reactors, thereby boosting the installed nuclear capacity from 49 GW in 2010 to 68
GW by 2030, while maintaining all the existing plants. In addition, the government
aimed to raise the capacity factor of nuclear power plants to average 90%.
However, the Fukushima accident required a rethink of this Plan in terms of nuclear
energy development.
The changing circumstances after Fukushima necessitate the fundamental review
of the energy policy which was formulated before Fukushima. The new Strategic
Energy Plan of Japan [16], the first national energy policy after Fukushima, was
officially approved in April 2014, and the new governmental energy outlook to
2030 was presented in July 2015 [17]. The plan and the outlook discuss the normative view of desired energy mix to 2030 by reviewing the properties of nuclear
power and other alternative energy sources, and proposes the optimal power generation mix to satisfy the requirement of energy demand and supply in terms of 3Es:
energy security, environmental conservation and economic efficiency. The plan
places nuclear power as an important base load power generator which satisfies all
of the agenda in 3Es. The new energy outlook of Japan assumes the appropriate
fraction of total electric power generation in 2030: 20–22% for nuclear, 27% for
liquefied natural gas (LNG)-fired thermal, 26% for coal-fired thermal, 3% for
oil-fired thermal, and 22–24% for renewables (Fig. 8). The plan describes that
nuclear has advantage in economic efficiency based on its higher density of power
output and in environmental compatibility as carbon-free source. Meanwhile, the
plan describes that the enhancement of nuclear safety has higher priority than the
assurance of 3Es and the dependence on nuclear in the energy supply portfolio
should be decreased. It is therefore indispensable that nuclear operations strictly
comply with the new safety standards, regarded as the world’s most stringent code
by the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA). According to the basic direction in the
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10 year average before
Fukushima
2030
[%]
Oil 12%
Coal 24%
LNG27%
Nucear 27%
Renewable
11%
Oil 3%
Coal26%
LNG27%
Nuclear
20 22%
Renewable
22 24%
Hydro
8.8 9.2%
PV
7.0%
Geothermal
1.0
Biomass
3.7 4.6%
Fig. 8 Power generation mix
of Japan to 2030 [17]
Considering Nuclear Accident …
105
is, nuclear and renewable, account for 70% in power generation mix in 2030. The
fraction of nuclear power itself amounts to more than 50% in the mix as indigenous
and emission-free sources. The Japanese government planned to build additional 14
reactors, thereby boosting the installed nuclear capacity from 49 GW in 2010 to 68
GW by 2030, while maintaining all the existing plants. In addition, the government
aimed to raise the capacity factor of nuclear power plants to average 90%.
However, the Fukushima accident required a rethink of this Plan in terms of nuclear
energy development.
The changing circumstances after Fukushima necessitate the fundamental review
of the energy policy which was formulated before Fukushima. The new Strategic
Energy Plan of Japan [16], the first national energy policy after Fukushima, was
officially approved in April 2014, and the new governmental energy outlook to
2030 was presented in July 2015 [17]. The plan and the outlook discuss the normative view of desired energy mix to 2030 by reviewing the properties of nuclear
power and other alternative energy sources, and proposes the optimal power generation mix to satisfy the requirement of energy demand and supply in terms of 3Es:
energy security, environmental conservation and economic efficiency. The plan
places nuclear power as an important base load power generator which satisfies all
of the agenda in 3Es. The new energy outlook of Japan assumes the appropriate
fraction of total electric power generation in 2030: 20–22% for nuclear, 27% for
liquefied natural gas (LNG)-fired thermal, 26% for coal-fired thermal, 3% for
oil-fired thermal, and 22–24% for renewables (Fig. 8). The plan describes that
nuclear has advantage in economic efficiency based on its higher density of power
output and in environmental compatibility as carbon-free source. Meanwhile, the
plan describes that the enhancement of nuclear safety has higher priority than the
assurance of 3Es and the dependence on nuclear in the energy supply portfolio
should be decreased. It is therefore indispensable that nuclear operations strictly
comply with the new safety standards, regarded as the world’s most stringent code
by the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA). According to the basic direction in the
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10 year average before
Fukushima
2030
[%]
Oil 12%
Coal 24%
LNG27%
Nucear 27%
Renewable
11%
Oil 3%
Coal26%
LNG27%
Nuclear
20 22%
Renewable
22 24%
Hydro
8.8 9.2%
PV
7.0%
Geothermal
1.0
Biomass
3.7 4.6%
Fig. 8 Power generation mix
of Japan to 2030 [17]
Considering Nuclear Accident …
105