30
2 Complexity Time Bomb
societal shift, triggered by technological innovation? In the most likely scenario, we
will witness a combination of several of these contagious phenomena. The World
Economic Forum calls this the “perfect storm” (see Footnote 1), and the OECD has
expressed similar concerns.
2.13 Unintended Wars and Revolutions
It is important to realize that large-scale conflicts, revolutions and wars can also be
unintended outcomes of systemic interdependencies and instabilities. Remember that
phantom traffic jams were unintended consequences of interactions. Similarly, wars
and revolutions can happen even if nobody wants them. While there is a tendency to
characterize these events as the deeds of particular historical figures, this trivializes
and personalizes such phenomena in a way which distracts from their true, systemic
nature.
It is essential to recognize that complex dynamical systems usually resist change if
they are close to a stable equilibrium. This effect is known as Goodhart’s law (1975),
Le Chatelier’s principle (1850–1936) or “illusion of control”. Individual factors and
randomness only affect complex dynamical systems if they are driven to a “tipping
point”,
30 where they become unstable.
In other words, the much-heralded individuals to whom so much attention is
afforded in our history books were only able to influence history because much bigger
systems beyond their control had already become critically unstable.
31 For example,
historians now increasingly recognize that World War I was a largely unintended
consequence of a chain of events. Moreover, World War II was preceded by a financial
crisis and recession, which destabilized the German economic, social and political
system. Ultimately, this made it possible for an individual to become influential
enough to drive the world to the brink of extinction. Unfortunately, civilization is
still vulnerable today and a large-scale war may happen again. This is even likely, if
we don’t quickly change the way we manage our world.
Typically, the unintended path towards war is as follows: Initially, resources
become scarce due to a disruption such as a serious economic crisis. Then, the
resulting competition for limited resources leads to an increase in conflict, violence,
crime and corruption. Human solidarity and mutual tolerance are eroded, creating
a polarized society. This causes further dissatisfaction and social turmoil. People
get frustrated with the system, calling for leadership and order. Political extremists
emerge, who scapegoat minorities for social and economic problems. This decreases
socio-economic diversity, which reduces innovation and further hinders the economy.
Eventually, the well-balanced “socio-economic ecosystem” collapses, such that an
orderly system of resource allocation becomes impossible. As resources become
scarcer, this creates an increasing “need” for nationalism or even for an external
30 Such tipping points are also often called “critical points”.
31 Klein [17].
2 Complexity Time Bomb
societal shift, triggered by technological innovation? In the most likely scenario, we
will witness a combination of several of these contagious phenomena. The World
Economic Forum calls this the “perfect storm” (see Footnote 1), and the OECD has
expressed similar concerns.
2.13 Unintended Wars and Revolutions
It is important to realize that large-scale conflicts, revolutions and wars can also be
unintended outcomes of systemic interdependencies and instabilities. Remember that
phantom traffic jams were unintended consequences of interactions. Similarly, wars
and revolutions can happen even if nobody wants them. While there is a tendency to
characterize these events as the deeds of particular historical figures, this trivializes
and personalizes such phenomena in a way which distracts from their true, systemic
nature.
It is essential to recognize that complex dynamical systems usually resist change if
they are close to a stable equilibrium. This effect is known as Goodhart’s law (1975),
Le Chatelier’s principle (1850–1936) or “illusion of control”. Individual factors and
randomness only affect complex dynamical systems if they are driven to a “tipping
point”,
30 where they become unstable.
In other words, the much-heralded individuals to whom so much attention is
afforded in our history books were only able to influence history because much bigger
systems beyond their control had already become critically unstable.
31 For example,
historians now increasingly recognize that World War I was a largely unintended
consequence of a chain of events. Moreover, World War II was preceded by a financial
crisis and recession, which destabilized the German economic, social and political
system. Ultimately, this made it possible for an individual to become influential
enough to drive the world to the brink of extinction. Unfortunately, civilization is
still vulnerable today and a large-scale war may happen again. This is even likely, if
we don’t quickly change the way we manage our world.
Typically, the unintended path towards war is as follows: Initially, resources
become scarce due to a disruption such as a serious economic crisis. Then, the
resulting competition for limited resources leads to an increase in conflict, violence,
crime and corruption. Human solidarity and mutual tolerance are eroded, creating
a polarized society. This causes further dissatisfaction and social turmoil. People
get frustrated with the system, calling for leadership and order. Political extremists
emerge, who scapegoat minorities for social and economic problems. This decreases
socio-economic diversity, which reduces innovation and further hinders the economy.
Eventually, the well-balanced “socio-economic ecosystem” collapses, such that an
orderly system of resource allocation becomes impossible. As resources become
scarcer, this creates an increasing “need” for nationalism or even for an external
30 Such tipping points are also often called “critical points”.
31 Klein [17].