2.12 Have Humans Created a “Complexity Time Bomb”?
29
2.12 Have Humans Created a “Complexity Time Bomb”?
For a long time, problems such as crowd disasters and financial crashes have puzzled
humanity. Sometimes, they have even been regarded as “acts of God” or “black
swans”
28 that we had to endure. But problems like these should not be simply put
down to “bad luck”. They are often the consequence of a flawed understanding
of the counter-intuitive way in which complex systems behave. Fatal errors and
the repetition of previous mistakes are frequently the result of an outdated way
of thinking. However, complexity science allows us to understand how and when
complex dynamical systems get out of control.
If a system is unstable, we will see amplification effects, such that a local problem
can lead to a cascading failure, which creates many further problems down the line.
For this reason, the degree of interaction between the system components is crucial.
Overall, complex dynamical systems become unstable, if the interactions between
their components get stronger than frictional effects, or if the damage resulting from
the degradation of system components occurs faster than they can recover. As a
result, the timing of processes can play a key role in determining whether the overall
system will remain stable. This means that delays in adaptation processes can often
lead to systemic instabilities and loss of control (see Appendix 2.2).
We have further seen that an unstable complex system will sooner or later get
out of control, even if everyone is well-informed and well-trained, uses advanced
technology and has the best intentions. And finally, we have learned that complex
dynamical systems with strong internal interactions or a high level of connectivity
tend to be unstable. As our increasingly interdependent world is characterized by
a myriad of global links, it is necessary to discuss the potential consequences. We
must raise a fundamental question which has mammoth implications for the viability
of our current economic and political systems: have humans inadvertently produced
a “complexity time bomb”, i.e. a global system which will inevitably get out of
control? [6]
In fact, for certain kinds of networks, the potential chain reaction of cascading
failures bears a disturbing resemblance to that of nuclear fission. Such processes are
difficult to control. Catastrophic damage is a realistic scenario. Given the similarity
with explosive processes, is it possible that our global anthropogenic systems will
similarly get out of control at some point? When considering this possibility, we
need to bear in mind that the speed of a destructive cascading effect might be slow,
so that the process may not remind of an explosion. Nevertheless, the process may
be hard to stop, and it may ultimately lead to systemic failure.
29
What kinds of global catastrophes might today’s complex societies face? A
collapse of the global information and communication system or of the world
economy? Global pandemics? Unsustainable growth, demographic or environmental
change? A global food or energy crisis? A clash of cultures? Another world war? A
28 Taleb [16].
29 For example, the underlying processes which cause crowd disasters are slow, but deadly
nonetheless.
29
2.12 Have Humans Created a “Complexity Time Bomb”?
For a long time, problems such as crowd disasters and financial crashes have puzzled
humanity. Sometimes, they have even been regarded as “acts of God” or “black
swans”
28 that we had to endure. But problems like these should not be simply put
down to “bad luck”. They are often the consequence of a flawed understanding
of the counter-intuitive way in which complex systems behave. Fatal errors and
the repetition of previous mistakes are frequently the result of an outdated way
of thinking. However, complexity science allows us to understand how and when
complex dynamical systems get out of control.
If a system is unstable, we will see amplification effects, such that a local problem
can lead to a cascading failure, which creates many further problems down the line.
For this reason, the degree of interaction between the system components is crucial.
Overall, complex dynamical systems become unstable, if the interactions between
their components get stronger than frictional effects, or if the damage resulting from
the degradation of system components occurs faster than they can recover. As a
result, the timing of processes can play a key role in determining whether the overall
system will remain stable. This means that delays in adaptation processes can often
lead to systemic instabilities and loss of control (see Appendix 2.2).
We have further seen that an unstable complex system will sooner or later get
out of control, even if everyone is well-informed and well-trained, uses advanced
technology and has the best intentions. And finally, we have learned that complex
dynamical systems with strong internal interactions or a high level of connectivity
tend to be unstable. As our increasingly interdependent world is characterized by
a myriad of global links, it is necessary to discuss the potential consequences. We
must raise a fundamental question which has mammoth implications for the viability
of our current economic and political systems: have humans inadvertently produced
a “complexity time bomb”, i.e. a global system which will inevitably get out of
control? [6]
In fact, for certain kinds of networks, the potential chain reaction of cascading
failures bears a disturbing resemblance to that of nuclear fission. Such processes are
difficult to control. Catastrophic damage is a realistic scenario. Given the similarity
with explosive processes, is it possible that our global anthropogenic systems will
similarly get out of control at some point? When considering this possibility, we
need to bear in mind that the speed of a destructive cascading effect might be slow,
so that the process may not remind of an explosion. Nevertheless, the process may
be hard to stop, and it may ultimately lead to systemic failure.
29
What kinds of global catastrophes might today’s complex societies face? A
collapse of the global information and communication system or of the world
economy? Global pandemics? Unsustainable growth, demographic or environmental
change? A global food or energy crisis? A clash of cultures? Another world war? A
28 Taleb [16].
29 For example, the underlying processes which cause crowd disasters are slow, but deadly
nonetheless.