28
2 Complexity Time Bomb
2.10 Explosive Epidemics
When studying the spread of diseases, the outcome is highly dependent on the degree
of physical interactions between people who may infect each other. A few additional airline routes might make the difference between a case in which a disease
is contained, and a case which develops into a devastating global pandemic.
24 The
threat of epidemic cascading effects might be even worse if earlier damage reduces
the ability of the system to withstand problems later on. For example, assume a
health system in which the financial or medical resources are limited by the number of
healthy individuals who produce them. In such a case, it can happen that the resources
needed to heal the disease are increasingly used up, such that the epidemic finally
spreads explosively. A computer-based study, which Lucas Böttcher, Olivia WoolleyMeza, Nuno Araujo, Hans Hermann and I performed, shows that the dynamics in such
a system can change dramatically and unexpectedly.
25 Thus, have we perhaps built
global networks which we can neither predict nor control?
2.11 Systemic Interdependence
Recently, Shlomo Havlin (*1942) and others made a further important discovery.
They revealed that networks of networks can be particularly vulnerable to disruptions.
26 A typical example of this is the interdependence between electrical and
communication networks. Another example, which illustrates the global interdependence between natural, energy, climate, financial and political systems is provided
by the Tohoku earthquake in Japan in 2011. The earthquake caused a tsunami which
triggered a chain reaction and a nuclear disaster in several reactors at Fukushima.
Soon after this, Germany and Switzerland decided to exit nuclear power production
over the next decade(s). However, alternative energy sources are also problematic,
as European gas supply depends on geopolitical regions which might not be fully
reliable.
27
Likewise, Europe’s DESERTEC project—a planned e1000 billion investment in
solar energy infrastructure—has been practically given up due to another unexpected
event, the Arab Spring. This uprising was triggered by high food prices, which in turn
was partially caused by biofuel production. While biofuels were intended to improve
the global CO 2 balance, their production decreased the production of food, making
it more expensive. The increased food prices were further amplified by financial
speculation. Hence, the energy system, the political system, the social system, the
food system and the financial system have all become closely interdependent, making
our world increasingly vulnerable to disruptions.
24 See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzTe1j5paLY.
25 Böttcher et al. [13].
26 Buldyrev et al. [14].
27 Carvalho [15].
2 Complexity Time Bomb
2.10 Explosive Epidemics
When studying the spread of diseases, the outcome is highly dependent on the degree
of physical interactions between people who may infect each other. A few additional airline routes might make the difference between a case in which a disease
is contained, and a case which develops into a devastating global pandemic.
24 The
threat of epidemic cascading effects might be even worse if earlier damage reduces
the ability of the system to withstand problems later on. For example, assume a
health system in which the financial or medical resources are limited by the number of
healthy individuals who produce them. In such a case, it can happen that the resources
needed to heal the disease are increasingly used up, such that the epidemic finally
spreads explosively. A computer-based study, which Lucas Böttcher, Olivia WoolleyMeza, Nuno Araujo, Hans Hermann and I performed, shows that the dynamics in such
a system can change dramatically and unexpectedly.
25 Thus, have we perhaps built
global networks which we can neither predict nor control?
2.11 Systemic Interdependence
Recently, Shlomo Havlin (*1942) and others made a further important discovery.
They revealed that networks of networks can be particularly vulnerable to disruptions.
26 A typical example of this is the interdependence between electrical and
communication networks. Another example, which illustrates the global interdependence between natural, energy, climate, financial and political systems is provided
by the Tohoku earthquake in Japan in 2011. The earthquake caused a tsunami which
triggered a chain reaction and a nuclear disaster in several reactors at Fukushima.
Soon after this, Germany and Switzerland decided to exit nuclear power production
over the next decade(s). However, alternative energy sources are also problematic,
as European gas supply depends on geopolitical regions which might not be fully
reliable.
27
Likewise, Europe’s DESERTEC project—a planned e1000 billion investment in
solar energy infrastructure—has been practically given up due to another unexpected
event, the Arab Spring. This uprising was triggered by high food prices, which in turn
was partially caused by biofuel production. While biofuels were intended to improve
the global CO 2 balance, their production decreased the production of food, making
it more expensive. The increased food prices were further amplified by financial
speculation. Hence, the energy system, the political system, the social system, the
food system and the financial system have all become closely interdependent, making
our world increasingly vulnerable to disruptions.
24 See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzTe1j5paLY.
25 Böttcher et al. [13].
26 Buldyrev et al. [14].
27 Carvalho [15].