2.13 Unintended Wars and Revolutions
31
enemy to unify the fractured society. In the end, as a result of further escalation, war
seems to be the only viable “solution” to overcome the crisis, but instead, it mostly
leads to large-scale destruction.
2.14 Revolutionary Systemic Shifts
A revolution, too, can be the result of systemic instability. Hence, a revolution is not
necessarily set in motion by a “revolutionary leader”, who challenges the political
establishment. The breakdown of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR)
and some Arab Spring revolutions have shown that uprisings may even start in the
absence of a clearly identifiable political opponent. On the one hand, this is the
reason why such revolutions cannot be stopped by killing or imprisoning a few
individuals. On the other hand, the Arab Spring took secret services throughout the
world by surprise precisely because there were no revolutionary leaders. This created
complications for countries which wished to assist these uprisings, as they did not
know whom to interact with for international support.
It is more instructive to imagine such revolutions as a result of situations in which
the interests of government representatives and those of the people (or particular
societal groups) have drifted away from each other. Similarly to the tensions created
by a drift of the Earth’s tectonic plates, such an unstable situation is sooner or later
followed by an “earthquake-like” release of tension (the “revolution”), resulting in
a re-balancing of forces. To reiterate, contrary to the conventional wisdom which
assumes that revolutionary leaders are responsible for political instability, it is due
to an existing systemic instability that these individuals can become influential. To
put it succinctly, in most cases, revolutionaries don’t create revolutions, but systemic
instabilities do. These instabilities are typically created by the politics of the old
regime. Therefore, we must ask ourselves how well our society balances the interests
of different groups today and how well it manages to adapt to a world, which is rapidly
changing due to demographic, environmental and technological change?
2.15 Conclusion
It is obvious that there are many problems ahead of us. Most of them result from the
complexity of the systems humans have created. But how can we master all these
problems? Is it a lost battle against complexity, or do we have to pursue a new, entirely
different strategy? Do we perhaps even need to change our way of thinking? And
how can we innovate, before it is too late? The next chapters will try to answer these
questions…
31
enemy to unify the fractured society. In the end, as a result of further escalation, war
seems to be the only viable “solution” to overcome the crisis, but instead, it mostly
leads to large-scale destruction.
2.14 Revolutionary Systemic Shifts
A revolution, too, can be the result of systemic instability. Hence, a revolution is not
necessarily set in motion by a “revolutionary leader”, who challenges the political
establishment. The breakdown of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR)
and some Arab Spring revolutions have shown that uprisings may even start in the
absence of a clearly identifiable political opponent. On the one hand, this is the
reason why such revolutions cannot be stopped by killing or imprisoning a few
individuals. On the other hand, the Arab Spring took secret services throughout the
world by surprise precisely because there were no revolutionary leaders. This created
complications for countries which wished to assist these uprisings, as they did not
know whom to interact with for international support.
It is more instructive to imagine such revolutions as a result of situations in which
the interests of government representatives and those of the people (or particular
societal groups) have drifted away from each other. Similarly to the tensions created
by a drift of the Earth’s tectonic plates, such an unstable situation is sooner or later
followed by an “earthquake-like” release of tension (the “revolution”), resulting in
a re-balancing of forces. To reiterate, contrary to the conventional wisdom which
assumes that revolutionary leaders are responsible for political instability, it is due
to an existing systemic instability that these individuals can become influential. To
put it succinctly, in most cases, revolutionaries don’t create revolutions, but systemic
instabilities do. These instabilities are typically created by the politics of the old
regime. Therefore, we must ask ourselves how well our society balances the interests
of different groups today and how well it manages to adapt to a world, which is rapidly
changing due to demographic, environmental and technological change?
2.15 Conclusion
It is obvious that there are many problems ahead of us. Most of them result from the
complexity of the systems humans have created. But how can we master all these
problems? Is it a lost battle against complexity, or do we have to pursue a new, entirely
different strategy? Do we perhaps even need to change our way of thinking? And
how can we innovate, before it is too late? The next chapters will try to answer these
questions…