94
5 Genie Out of the Bottle
just about 3%, whereas 300 years ago, it stood at 80% or more. How did we get there?
Among other developments, the great success of James Watt’s steam engine, invented
in 1769, gave rise to the industrial revolution. As a result, many people lost their jobs
due to automation—in the production of textiles, for example. However, the industrial revolution also gave rise to consumerism, meaning that industrial production
eventually created a secondary sector with many new jobs. In fact, during its heyday,
industrial production provided more than 30% of all jobs in developed countries. But
later, efficiency increases in industrial production led to a loss of half of all industrial
jobs. Unfortunately, the number of industrial jobs will continue to fall—probably
below 10%. Very soon, therefore, only about 10 to 15% of jobs will be provided by
the primary and secondary sectors of economy.
The tertiary sector—services—is the result of another big innovation: the expansion of education to all levels of society from the 1870s onwards. Reading and
writing were no longer restricted to elites, and many more people could perform jobs
requiring special qualifications. As a result, the service sector became more developed
and brought about an increase in planning, administrative and management tasks. In
modern societies, up to 70% of jobs are currently in the service sector. But again,
history will repeat itself and more than half of these employees will be replaced—this
time by algorithms, computers and robots.
26 What will happen, if computer power
and Artificial Intelligence progress so far that humans can no longer keep up?
5.7 The Third Economic Revolution
The digital revolution is driving another dramatic wave of automation, leading to a
“second machine age”.
27 Not only philosophers become increasingly worried about
our future, but leading experts as well. The techno-revolutionaries are losing control
of their revolution. If we don’t find a new way to produce jobs quickly, we will face
unemployment rates far beyond the levels that our current socio-economic system can
handle. Indeed, all of the previous socio-economic transitions were accompanied by
mass unemployment, which is one of the major forces transforming societies. Given
that computers will match the capabilities of the human brain within 10–25 years, we
have very little time to adapt to the current societal transition. If we don’t adapt fast
enough, the transition will be sudden, harsh, and discontinuous: we should expect a
bumpy road ahead!
In control theory, it’s a well-established fact that delayed adaptation causes
systems to become unstable. The consequences of such instabilities for our society
may include financial and economic crises, social and political conflicts, and even
wars. In fact, there are already signs of destabilization in many countries around the
world. These might be interpreted as advance warning signals of socio-economic
transitions to come. The list of countries that have recently encountered social
26 Frey and Osborne [11].
27 Brynjolfsson and McAfee [12].
5 Genie Out of the Bottle
just about 3%, whereas 300 years ago, it stood at 80% or more. How did we get there?
Among other developments, the great success of James Watt’s steam engine, invented
in 1769, gave rise to the industrial revolution. As a result, many people lost their jobs
due to automation—in the production of textiles, for example. However, the industrial revolution also gave rise to consumerism, meaning that industrial production
eventually created a secondary sector with many new jobs. In fact, during its heyday,
industrial production provided more than 30% of all jobs in developed countries. But
later, efficiency increases in industrial production led to a loss of half of all industrial
jobs. Unfortunately, the number of industrial jobs will continue to fall—probably
below 10%. Very soon, therefore, only about 10 to 15% of jobs will be provided by
the primary and secondary sectors of economy.
The tertiary sector—services—is the result of another big innovation: the expansion of education to all levels of society from the 1870s onwards. Reading and
writing were no longer restricted to elites, and many more people could perform jobs
requiring special qualifications. As a result, the service sector became more developed
and brought about an increase in planning, administrative and management tasks. In
modern societies, up to 70% of jobs are currently in the service sector. But again,
history will repeat itself and more than half of these employees will be replaced—this
time by algorithms, computers and robots.
26 What will happen, if computer power
and Artificial Intelligence progress so far that humans can no longer keep up?
5.7 The Third Economic Revolution
The digital revolution is driving another dramatic wave of automation, leading to a
“second machine age”.
27 Not only philosophers become increasingly worried about
our future, but leading experts as well. The techno-revolutionaries are losing control
of their revolution. If we don’t find a new way to produce jobs quickly, we will face
unemployment rates far beyond the levels that our current socio-economic system can
handle. Indeed, all of the previous socio-economic transitions were accompanied by
mass unemployment, which is one of the major forces transforming societies. Given
that computers will match the capabilities of the human brain within 10–25 years, we
have very little time to adapt to the current societal transition. If we don’t adapt fast
enough, the transition will be sudden, harsh, and discontinuous: we should expect a
bumpy road ahead!
In control theory, it’s a well-established fact that delayed adaptation causes
systems to become unstable. The consequences of such instabilities for our society
may include financial and economic crises, social and political conflicts, and even
wars. In fact, there are already signs of destabilization in many countries around the
world. These might be interpreted as advance warning signals of socio-economic
transitions to come. The list of countries that have recently encountered social
26 Frey and Osborne [11].
27 Brynjolfsson and McAfee [12].