5.5 When Will We See Artificial Superintelligences and Superhumans?
93
It is clear, however, that new socio-economic forces will be created when, within
the next 10–30 years, computers, algorithms and robots increasingly take over our
classical roles and jobs. In the past, we witnessed the transition from the “economy
1.0”, characterized by an agricultural society, to the “economy 2.0”, driven by industrialization, and finally to the “economy 3.0”, based on the service sector. Now, we
are seeing the emergence of the “economy 4.0”, a “digital” sector driven by information and knowledge production. The third socio-economic transformation, which is
currently on its way, is fueled by the spread of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence,
and the Internet of Things.
24 Unfortunately, history tells us that the emergence of a
new economic sector tends to cause social and economic disruptions, as the innovation that feeds the new sector undermines the basis of the old ones.
25 Financial and
economic crises, revolutions, or war may be the results. If we want to avoid this, we
must quickly adapt our perspective of the world and the way we organize it. I am
totally convinced that we can master the digital revolution, but only if we manage to
create a win-win-win situation for politics, business, and citizens alike.
5.6 Everything Will Change
The digital revolution is fundamentally changing many of our activities and institutions. This includes how we educate (using massive open on-line courses), how
we do research (through the analysis of Big Data), how we move around (with selfdriving cars), how we transport goods (with drones), how we shop (with Amazon and
eBay, for example), how we produce goods (with 3D printers), and how we run our
health systems (with personalized medicine). Our political institutions are likely to
change as well, for example, by data-driven decision-making and demands for more
citizen participation. Likewise, the basis of our economy is altered by a new wave of
automation and a number of other trends. Financial transactions, which used to be
performed by bankers, are being replaced by algorithmic trading, Paypal, BitCoin,
Google Wallet, and so on. Moreover, the biggest share of the insurance business,
amounting to a multiple of the global gross domestic product, is now in financial
derivatives traded at stock markets. According to military experts, war may fundamentally change, too—with states preparing for cyberwar. If one succeeded to build
a “digital God”, even religion may change.
Let us now look at the problem of the coming economic transformation more
closely. Are our societies well-prepared for the digital revolution? In some industrialized countries, the proportion of jobs in the agricultural (“primary”) sector is now
are applied to an entire country. Therefore, we should at least be able to judge the solutions that
superintelligences would come up with, and this would require collective intelligence.
24 Rifkin [10].
25 For example, during the transition to industrial production methods in British textile mills in the
1810s, the term “Luddite” was used to describe workers who deliberately smashed and destroyed
modern machinery because they feared it would threaten their jobs.
93
It is clear, however, that new socio-economic forces will be created when, within
the next 10–30 years, computers, algorithms and robots increasingly take over our
classical roles and jobs. In the past, we witnessed the transition from the “economy
1.0”, characterized by an agricultural society, to the “economy 2.0”, driven by industrialization, and finally to the “economy 3.0”, based on the service sector. Now, we
are seeing the emergence of the “economy 4.0”, a “digital” sector driven by information and knowledge production. The third socio-economic transformation, which is
currently on its way, is fueled by the spread of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence,
and the Internet of Things.
24 Unfortunately, history tells us that the emergence of a
new economic sector tends to cause social and economic disruptions, as the innovation that feeds the new sector undermines the basis of the old ones.
25 Financial and
economic crises, revolutions, or war may be the results. If we want to avoid this, we
must quickly adapt our perspective of the world and the way we organize it. I am
totally convinced that we can master the digital revolution, but only if we manage to
create a win-win-win situation for politics, business, and citizens alike.
5.6 Everything Will Change
The digital revolution is fundamentally changing many of our activities and institutions. This includes how we educate (using massive open on-line courses), how
we do research (through the analysis of Big Data), how we move around (with selfdriving cars), how we transport goods (with drones), how we shop (with Amazon and
eBay, for example), how we produce goods (with 3D printers), and how we run our
health systems (with personalized medicine). Our political institutions are likely to
change as well, for example, by data-driven decision-making and demands for more
citizen participation. Likewise, the basis of our economy is altered by a new wave of
automation and a number of other trends. Financial transactions, which used to be
performed by bankers, are being replaced by algorithmic trading, Paypal, BitCoin,
Google Wallet, and so on. Moreover, the biggest share of the insurance business,
amounting to a multiple of the global gross domestic product, is now in financial
derivatives traded at stock markets. According to military experts, war may fundamentally change, too—with states preparing for cyberwar. If one succeeded to build
a “digital God”, even religion may change.
Let us now look at the problem of the coming economic transformation more
closely. Are our societies well-prepared for the digital revolution? In some industrialized countries, the proportion of jobs in the agricultural (“primary”) sector is now
are applied to an entire country. Therefore, we should at least be able to judge the solutions that
superintelligences would come up with, and this would require collective intelligence.
24 Rifkin [10].
25 For example, during the transition to industrial production methods in British textile mills in the
1810s, the term “Luddite” was used to describe workers who deliberately smashed and destroyed
modern machinery because they feared it would threaten their jobs.